Posted on 10/06/2012 2:12:04 PM PDT by raptor22
Campaign 2012: When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.
In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.
That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote.
"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he's gonna have problems downstate," explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he's seen, Obama polled only in the 40s in downstate Illinois.
If his poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.4%, is accurate, Obama would be in some trouble.
In the city of Chicago itself, McKeon found Obama with a 60-29 lead over Romney. But Romney led 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney led 43-31 among independent voters and held a 44-38 lead among male voters.
McKeon noted that in the 2010 gubernatorial race Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties that have traditionally resisted and resented being dominated by upstate Chicago politicians.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
Obama will not lose Illinois, the Chicago machine will take care of their home field.
Obama will not lose Illinois, the Chicago machine will take care of their home field.
Obama will not lose Illinois, the Chicago machine will take care of their home field.
Chicago voter registration is down by 225,000 from 2008.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-09-25/news/chi-voter-registration-down-in-chicago-20120925_1_voter-registration-chicago-voters-young-voters
Maybe he needs a little crank.
Could you imagine if that happened? It would truly give new meaning to the phrase “temper tantrum”, lol!
It all depends on voter turnout in Chicago. Overall democrat turnout may well be down. Many are dissatisfied with Obama, even in the Black community. If they still turn out, he’ll get Illinois, if their numbers are down it could turn into a GOP win, but it would be very close.
Obama is running ads here in Illinois.
His people are obviously worried.
Now *that* is a coincidence. What are the odds they'd have a state named "Illinois" in Kenya?
or to indiana thats closer than michigan, but either one would work!
“or to indiana thats closer than michigan, but either one would work!”
Indiana is a healthy red state. We don’t want Chicago turning them blue. Better to shove it in another blue state like Michigan. Perhaps combine Chicago with Detroit under the banner Decago
“It will be a Reagan-esque blowout if Illinois is in play.”
Yes it will be, and just think of all the testicle transplant doctors offices full of Republican officeholders if it happens. Be proactive, buy stock in sex change doctors, you stand to make a killing if Romney wins.
Potential landslide ping
“it’s just too Democrat a state right now.”
Why does the word “corrupt” suddenly pop into my head?
Potential landslide ping
Can’t we just give him the 3 for DC ??
I don’t the answer but there are 3 things to consider:
1) Chicago Tribune Sept 26th: “With two weeks left to register to vote, the number of people on Chicago’s voting rolls is about 225,000 less than it was by the time registration closed four years ago, election officials said today.”
2) Obama campaign officials threatened an NAACP official who is not backing Obama and he referred this to the police
3) Kevin DuJan of Hillbuzz lives in Chicago and says black pastors have been telling congregations to stay home and not vote. They are angry at Obama’s same-sex marriage policy and amnesty to illegals.
That would be so SCHWEET!!
After the way obama lost his a** in that debate I would say this is possible.
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