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Could Obama Lose Home State Of Illinois?
IBD EDITORIALS ^ | October 6, 2012

Posted on 10/06/2012 2:12:04 PM PDT by raptor22

Campaign 2012: When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.

In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.

That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote.

"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he's gonna have problems downstate," explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he's seen, Obama polled only in the 40s in downstate Illinois.

If his poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.4%, is accurate, Obama would be in some trouble.

In the city of Chicago itself, McKeon found Obama with a 60-29 lead over Romney. But Romney led 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney led 43-31 among independent voters and held a 44-38 lead among male voters.

McKeon noted that in the 2010 gubernatorial race Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties that have traditionally resisted and resented being dominated by upstate Chicago politicians.

(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections; US: Illinois
KEYWORDS: chicago; chicagoway; cookcounty; ibd; illinois
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1 posted on 10/06/2012 2:12:07 PM PDT by raptor22
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To: raptor22

Win Illinois? Unlikely. Foolish to waste money trying. It will be a Reagan-esque blowout if Illinois is in play.


2 posted on 10/06/2012 2:14:03 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
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To: raptor22; LS; Perdogg

ping


3 posted on 10/06/2012 2:15:36 PM PDT by barmag25
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To: raptor22

Ill. may be angry at him that he chose to live in his other ‘homestate’ Hawaii.


4 posted on 10/06/2012 2:17:05 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: raptor22

That’d be a real kick in the old golf club bag.


5 posted on 10/06/2012 2:19:15 PM PDT by NormsRevenge (Semper Fi)
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To: raptor22

Like Gore losing Tennessee.


6 posted on 10/06/2012 2:19:32 PM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: fortheDeclaration; SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; ...

ping


7 posted on 10/06/2012 2:19:52 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: raptor22

don’t think it will ever happen. downstate, we are pretty conservative. crook county dominates. we even have to pay their taxes.

will have to relocate pretty soon to AZ. family there. i live in a police state.

blesssssssings, bobo


8 posted on 10/06/2012 2:20:11 PM PDT by bobo1
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To: FReepers
ICE T @FINALLEVEL Message to the President: "No weed before the next debate homie...." 5 Oct 12


Click The Pic To Donate

Support FR, Donate Monthly If You Can

9 posted on 10/06/2012 2:22:11 PM PDT by DJ MacWoW (My faith and politics cannot be separated)
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To: NormsRevenge; HamiltonJay

Send Ryan to Rockford, IL. He would get press coverage in IA, MO, WI, and IL.


10 posted on 10/06/2012 2:23:06 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: raptor22

No way he could lose Illnois. The needed votes are already to go, stuffed into boxes and car trunks, just waiting to see how many are required.


11 posted on 10/06/2012 2:23:24 PM PDT by Wordkraft (Remember who the Collaborators are.)
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To: raptor22
"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead...

I have an unshakable faith that they will find that lead.

12 posted on 10/06/2012 2:25:38 PM PDT by Salvey
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To: raptor22
Prior to the 911 attack, the largest concentration of FBI agents outside of DC was in Illinois. Assigned there to investigate political corruption.
13 posted on 10/06/2012 2:27:54 PM PDT by Reily (l)
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To: raptor22

It would be some great poetic justice....

Not gonna happen.


14 posted on 10/06/2012 2:28:00 PM PDT by Condor 63
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To: fortheDeclaration

No, we are angry with him because he is an incompetent boob who is doing all he can to destroy this country and we are ashamed to be associated with him and Chicago (or as we sometimes say downstate, Sh..cago. Fill in the blanks).
On another point, the only counties that Pat Quinn (D) carried were Cook and Washington. The first is, of course, Chicago and the other is East St. Louis. So most of the people in the larger landmass of Illinois are not as stupid as our neighbors to the north and southwest.


15 posted on 10/06/2012 2:29:53 PM PDT by SPI-Man (I am root)
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To: raptor22

“Could Obama Lose Home State Of Illinois?”

Not unless they move Chicago to Michigan


16 posted on 10/06/2012 2:32:03 PM PDT by chuckee
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To: SPI-Man

bttt


17 posted on 10/06/2012 2:34:26 PM PDT by ConservativeMan55
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To: DJ MacWoW

BTTT!!

18 posted on 10/06/2012 2:35:12 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Perdogg

Short answer : no. It’s not that it’s his home state (although that does help him in Chicagoland)—it’s just too Democrat a state right now. President Bush got only 44.5% in 2004 (while he was getting 50.7% nationally), and Kerry’s victory margin in IL was higher than in WA, NJ, HI, ME, DE or even CA.


19 posted on 10/06/2012 2:37:23 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll protect your rights?)
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To: raptor22; NYRepublican72

Anything is possible until the end. We should aim for a Reagenesque knockout of Obama — 0 electoral votes. I know it sounds impossible, but lets aim for the sky. At the worst we’ll reach the top of the tree


20 posted on 10/06/2012 2:39:03 PM PDT by Cronos (**Marriage is about commitment, cohabitation is about convenience.**)
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To: raptor22

Obama will not lose Illinois, the Chicago machine will take care of their home field.


21 posted on 10/06/2012 2:40:36 PM PDT by WildWeasel
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To: raptor22

Obama will not lose Illinois, the Chicago machine will take care of their home field.


22 posted on 10/06/2012 2:40:47 PM PDT by WildWeasel
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To: raptor22

Obama will not lose Illinois, the Chicago machine will take care of their home field.


23 posted on 10/06/2012 2:40:47 PM PDT by WildWeasel
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To: bobo1

Chicago voter registration is down by 225,000 from 2008.
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-09-25/news/chi-voter-registration-down-in-chicago-20120925_1_voter-registration-chicago-voters-young-voters


24 posted on 10/06/2012 2:41:04 PM PDT by Qout
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To: raptor22
Outside of Cook County (i.e., Chicago and a handful of collar communities) and downstate Madison and St. Clair Counties. Illinois is moderate to conservative. The reason Illinois is so bankrupt and corrupt is because Cook County dominates the state.
25 posted on 10/06/2012 2:42:03 PM PDT by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
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To: raptor22

Maybe he needs a little crank.


26 posted on 10/06/2012 2:44:25 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Take two Aspirin and call me in November - Obama for Hindmost.)
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To: NYRepublican72

Could you imagine if that happened? It would truly give new meaning to the phrase “temper tantrum”, lol!


27 posted on 10/06/2012 2:47:19 PM PDT by jocon307
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To: raptor22

It all depends on voter turnout in Chicago. Overall democrat turnout may well be down. Many are dissatisfied with Obama, even in the Black community. If they still turn out, he’ll get Illinois, if their numbers are down it could turn into a GOP win, but it would be very close.


28 posted on 10/06/2012 2:49:07 PM PDT by bcsco (Bourbon gets better with age...I age better with Bourbon.)
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To: NYRepublican72; raptor22

Obama is running ads here in Illinois.

His people are obviously worried.


29 posted on 10/06/2012 2:51:47 PM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: raptor22
"Could Obama Lose Home State Of Illinois?"

Now *that* is a coincidence. What are the odds they'd have a state named "Illinois" in Kenya?

30 posted on 10/06/2012 2:54:07 PM PDT by The Duke
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To: chuckee

or to indiana thats closer than michigan, but either one would work!


31 posted on 10/06/2012 2:55:31 PM PDT by Hman528
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To: Hman528

“or to indiana thats closer than michigan, but either one would work!”

Indiana is a healthy red state. We don’t want Chicago turning them blue. Better to shove it in another blue state like Michigan. Perhaps combine Chicago with Detroit under the banner Decago


32 posted on 10/06/2012 3:00:05 PM PDT by chuckee
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To: NYRepublican72

“It will be a Reagan-esque blowout if Illinois is in play.”

Yes it will be, and just think of all the testicle transplant doctors offices full of Republican officeholders if it happens. Be proactive, buy stock in sex change doctors, you stand to make a killing if Romney wins.


33 posted on 10/06/2012 3:04:12 PM PDT by vette6387
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To: Nachum; markomalley; Clairity; Carlucci; grey_whiskers; meyer; WL-law; Para-Ord.45; ...

Potential landslide ping


34 posted on 10/06/2012 3:06:48 PM PDT by raptor22 (Join me on Twitter @gerfingerpoken)
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To: AuH2ORepublican

“it’s just too Democrat a state right now.”

Why does the word “corrupt” suddenly pop into my head?


35 posted on 10/06/2012 3:07:25 PM PDT by jivin gene (Breakin' up is hard to do)
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To: Nachum; markomalley; Clairity; Carlucci; grey_whiskers; meyer; WL-law; Para-Ord.45; ...

Potential landslide ping


36 posted on 10/06/2012 3:07:30 PM PDT by raptor22 (Join me on Twitter @gerfingerpoken)
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To: Cronos

Can’t we just give him the 3 for DC ??


37 posted on 10/06/2012 3:12:58 PM PDT by EDINVA
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To: raptor22

I don’t the answer but there are 3 things to consider:

1) Chicago Tribune Sept 26th: “With two weeks left to register to vote, the number of people on Chicago’s voting rolls is about 225,000 less than it was by the time registration closed four years ago, election officials said today.”
2) Obama campaign officials threatened an NAACP official who is not backing Obama and he referred this to the police
3) Kevin DuJan of Hillbuzz lives in Chicago and says black pastors have been telling congregations to stay home and not vote. They are angry at Obama’s same-sex marriage policy and amnesty to illegals.


38 posted on 10/06/2012 3:21:45 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: raptor22

That would be so SCHWEET!!


39 posted on 10/06/2012 3:22:20 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: raptor22

After the way obama lost his a** in that debate I would say this is possible.


40 posted on 10/06/2012 3:41:41 PM PDT by bigheadfred (wowza)
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To: raptor22

In a word? No.


41 posted on 10/06/2012 3:46:15 PM PDT by Delhi Rebels (There was a row in Silver Street - the regiments was out.)
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To: fortheDeclaration

Or they don’t want him back so they figure, “Why not kick his ass out and let him move to Hawaii”.


42 posted on 10/06/2012 3:48:52 PM PDT by hattend (Firearms and ammunition...the only growing industries under the Obama regime.)
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To: WildWeasel

This year is different. A simmering disgust will bubble over for a 47 or 48 state sweep. Carteresque. Illinois will be close, but I’ll bet on downstate.


43 posted on 10/06/2012 3:54:11 PM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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To: raptor22

“Could Obama Lose Home State of Illinois?”

One can only hope.

IMHO


44 posted on 10/06/2012 4:16:06 PM PDT by ripley
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To: chiller

He will not lose Illinos... Rahm will see to like like Daddy Dailey did for JFK... after all the Cook County motto is Vote Early, Vote Often and Vote for the Democrat of your choice !


45 posted on 10/06/2012 4:17:39 PM PDT by Froggie
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To: Froggie

I’m aware. I grew up there. I repeat, this year is different. Downstate and the burbs will beat all.


46 posted on 10/06/2012 4:22:54 PM PDT by chiller (First check the poll's Dem/Rep/Ind sampling numbers, then re-think.)
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Support Free Republic


47 posted on 10/06/2012 4:34:42 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93destr)
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To: NormsRevenge

“That’d be a real kick in the old golf club bag.”

LOL! Thanks. I needed that! :)


48 posted on 10/06/2012 5:06:51 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: SPI-Man

“So most of the people in the larger landmass of Illinois are not as stupid as our neighbors to the north and southwest.”

It’s that way in Wisconsin, too. I live right outside of ‘The People’s Republik of Madistan.’ You know how THEY are, LOL! The rest of my state? The people are CONSERVATIVE and hard working and gun-toting and Bible-clinging and basically ...supporting the D*CKHEADS in Madistan and Milwaukeestan.

Grrrrr!


49 posted on 10/06/2012 5:11:57 PM PDT by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set...)
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To: raptor22

Why is this a surprise? We have seen the same thing in the OH absentee numbers, and with similar BIG shifts.


50 posted on 10/06/2012 5:52:17 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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