Posted on 10/06/2012 2:12:04 PM PDT by raptor22
Campaign 2012: When an incumbent Democratic president is virtually tied in a congressional district he carried by high double digits in 2008, and is losing in the suburbs of his hometown, there could be trouble brewing.
In August, a poll by the Joliet, Ill.-based polling firm of McKeon and Associates, found President Obama leading challenger Mitt Romney in Cook County, which includes Chicago and its suburbs, by a 12-point margin 49-37.
That would seem to be a comfortable edge, but it is significantly smaller than traditional margins needed to outweigh the more Republican downstate vote.
"He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he's gonna have problems downstate," explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he's seen, Obama polled only in the 40s in downstate Illinois.
If his poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus/minus 3.4%, is accurate, Obama would be in some trouble.
In the city of Chicago itself, McKeon found Obama with a 60-29 lead over Romney. But Romney led 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney led 43-31 among independent voters and held a 44-38 lead among male voters.
McKeon noted that in the 2010 gubernatorial race Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties that have traditionally resisted and resented being dominated by upstate Chicago politicians.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
In a word? No.
Or they don’t want him back so they figure, “Why not kick his ass out and let him move to Hawaii”.
This year is different. A simmering disgust will bubble over for a 47 or 48 state sweep. Carteresque. Illinois will be close, but I’ll bet on downstate.
“Could Obama Lose Home State of Illinois?”
One can only hope.
IMHO
He will not lose Illinos... Rahm will see to like like Daddy Dailey did for JFK... after all the Cook County motto is Vote Early, Vote Often and Vote for the Democrat of your choice !
I’m aware. I grew up there. I repeat, this year is different. Downstate and the burbs will beat all.
“That’d be a real kick in the old golf club bag.”
LOL! Thanks. I needed that! :)
“So most of the people in the larger landmass of Illinois are not as stupid as our neighbors to the north and southwest.”
It’s that way in Wisconsin, too. I live right outside of ‘The People’s Republik of Madistan.’ You know how THEY are, LOL! The rest of my state? The people are CONSERVATIVE and hard working and gun-toting and Bible-clinging and basically ...supporting the D*CKHEADS in Madistan and Milwaukeestan.
Grrrrr!
Why is this a surprise? We have seen the same thing in the OH absentee numbers, and with similar BIG shifts.
“Win Illinois? Unlikely. Foolish to waste money trying. It will be a Reaganesque blowout if Illinois is in play.”
Yes, I agree it’s unlikely and probably foolish for us run ads here. But even in Cook County, the RATS are running ads here. Why are they “wasting” THEIR money? Maybe it IS in play?
Prepare to see precincts with 5,000 residents returning 10,000 votes.
I too am lucky enough to have been exhiled from the Peoples Republic of Illinois. I hope you are right... it will be an epic wipe out if Obama loses Illinois... I’d like this election night to be effectively over by 10 pm...
Thanks for the ping.
That is VERY interesting! One of the reasons Obama won last time was because of the record numbers of black voters who showed up. Reducing that number would be a real blow to his re-election chances.
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