Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback
Posted on 10/06/2012 2:43:10 PM PDT by presidio9
The first presidential debate of 2012 is now behind us. The reviews suggest that many were surprised at how well Mitt Romney did and how weakly President Obama performed.
The Instant Polls conducted by CBS and CNN showed Romney as the big winner. In fact, CNN found that Romney emerged with the largest advantage from any debate since they began the instant debate poll three decades ago.
This leads to two questions. The first is: How much of a difference will it make?
As I noted last week, debates rarely have a major impact on a campaign, but a small shift could be decisive in a race as close as this one. Roughly 5 percent of all voters are still uncommitted to either candidate. Another 10 percent indicate they could change their minds. That's more than enough to change the race from a slight Obama advantage to a slight Romney edge.
That's especially true when the first debate focused on the key issue of Election 2012 -- the U.S. economy. Coming into the debate, 43 percent of voters gave the president good or excellent marks for handling the economy, while 46 percent said he had done a poor job. Those aren't great numbers, but the trend has been very good to Obama. The 43 percent who say he's doing a good job is up 2 points from a week ago, 8 points from a month ago and 13 points from a year ago.
Romney's comments in the debate were designed to have people rethink that assessment and reverse the trend. He said that the status quo "is not going to cut it" and talked of the need to find a "new path." He added that "under the president's policies, middle-income Americans have been buried. They're just being crushed. Middle-income Americans have seen their income come down by $4,300. This is a tax in and of itself. I'll call it the economy tax. It's been crushing."
Obama seemed less interested in defending his track record, telling the national audience, "The question here tonight is not where we've been but where we're going."
It will take a week or so to really see what impact all of this has on the polls.
But it also leads to a second question. How will the president perform in the second debate? Incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second. Ronald Reagan may be the greatest example of this.
After a very poor performance in the first debate of 1984, many wondered whether Reagan's age had caught up with him. Walter Mondale and his team thought they had a chance. But the veteran performer turned it all around at the beginning of the second debate by pledging not to make his "opponent's youth and inexperience an issue" in the campaign. Even Mondale laughed, although he had to know his chances of winning the election disappeared at that moment.
Does Obama have a comeback like that in him? We'll find out on Oct. 16.
Until then, all we can say for sure is that Romney had a good first debate and the next four weeks should be a lot more interesting on the campaign trail.
“The question here tonight is not where we’ve been but where we’re going.”
Pretty much the go-to response when you have just lead people through a sewage dump.
All the difference in the world. Voters were hoping to have someone besides Bobo to vote for. It was more than a turn-around.
He can’t come back. Not on his wit or cleverness. Not on his understanding of economics and the real world. Not on the knowledge he never bothered to learn in school. Not on his devotion to the Constitution.
The guy is just inferior and out of his league, and he knows it. That adds to the pressure in the next debates. He knows he can’t knock down Romney. He knows he can’t even lay a glove on him.
It wouldn’t surprise me if Obama cancels the next two debates claiming that he can’t debate a guy that just lies all the time.
Unless Obama were willing to have a complete moral compass realignment, it ain't gonna happen.
Can you imagine what that debate must have done to Bobo's self-confidence? It's like a boxer who has risen to the top on the basis of bouts he didn't know were fixed all of a sudden going against a skilled professional. And he is facing the same opponent in two more fights!!!
I stand corrected...
The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand.
Bear in mind that Obama was President of the Harvard Law Review, and is generally considered a strong debater. He should do well in the town hall format. The story I take away from Wednesday night is that people would have been writing not just Romney’s bot the GOP’s obituaries had he stumbled. Instead, he is in a stronger position, but he needs to get better. If the next debate is a tie, the media will declare Obama “The NEW Comeback Kid,” the polls will shift back to “Obama slightly ahead,” and Romney will need a Hail Mary in the final debate.
Additionally, the way unemployment numbers are now compiled means that (do to seasonal hiring) the rate will again fall in October, and Obama will have a head of steam the week before election day.
Finally, even Rasmussen is effectively conceeding that Ohio is a toss-up, and that is really the only vote that counts in this election.
This is the first time Obamatons saw their messiah was human and actually could bleed. That’s not reversible.
It was all smoke. He was awarded the presidency of the Harvard Law Review based upon melanin. He accomplished nothing there. His record as President stands by itself as an indictment against him. He has never before gone against an aggressive, skilled debater. He is the AZ Cardinals offensive line of debaters.
Thank you. I agree completely!
I don't mean to be slow, but doesn't a "Reagan Comeback" require a Reagan?
That is correct. The debate was not a turn-around. It was a tipping point.
Obama went up against something entirely foreign to him, a skilled, PREPARED debater who was not afraid to take the battle to him. When in his life has anyone NOT shown deference to him(remember McCain?) For him to learn how to combat Romney would be like training a right-handed batter to bat left. It's not something you can learn in a week. You can't cram for the presidency at the last minute.
Time has run out for that jug-eared phoney.