Skip to comments.Rasmussen: Obama May Need a Reagan Comeback
Posted on 10/06/2012 2:43:10 PM PDT by presidio9
The first presidential debate of 2012 is now behind us. The reviews suggest that many were surprised at how well Mitt Romney did and how weakly President Obama performed.
The Instant Polls conducted by CBS and CNN showed Romney as the big winner. In fact, CNN found that Romney emerged with the largest advantage from any debate since they began the instant debate poll three decades ago.
This leads to two questions. The first is: How much of a difference will it make?
As I noted last week, debates rarely have a major impact on a campaign, but a small shift could be decisive in a race as close as this one. Roughly 5 percent of all voters are still uncommitted to either candidate. Another 10 percent indicate they could change their minds. That's more than enough to change the race from a slight Obama advantage to a slight Romney edge.
That's especially true when the first debate focused on the key issue of Election 2012 -- the U.S. economy. Coming into the debate, 43 percent of voters gave the president good or excellent marks for handling the economy, while 46 percent said he had done a poor job. Those aren't great numbers, but the trend has been very good to Obama. The 43 percent who say he's doing a good job is up 2 points from a week ago, 8 points from a month ago and 13 points from a year ago.
Romney's comments in the debate were designed to have people rethink that assessment and reverse the trend. He said that the status quo "is not going to cut it" and talked of the need to find a "new path." He added that "under the president's policies, middle-income Americans have been buried. They're just being crushed. Middle-income Americans have seen their income come down by $4,300. This is a tax in and of itself. I'll call it the economy tax. It's been crushing."
Obama seemed less interested in defending his track record, telling the national audience, "The question here tonight is not where we've been but where we're going."
It will take a week or so to really see what impact all of this has on the polls.
But it also leads to a second question. How will the president perform in the second debate? Incumbent presidents often struggle in the first debate and do better in the second. Ronald Reagan may be the greatest example of this.
After a very poor performance in the first debate of 1984, many wondered whether Reagan's age had caught up with him. Walter Mondale and his team thought they had a chance. But the veteran performer turned it all around at the beginning of the second debate by pledging not to make his "opponent's youth and inexperience an issue" in the campaign. Even Mondale laughed, although he had to know his chances of winning the election disappeared at that moment.
Does Obama have a comeback like that in him? We'll find out on Oct. 16.
Until then, all we can say for sure is that Romney had a good first debate and the next four weeks should be a lot more interesting on the campaign trail.
Are you basing your assessment on his altercation with "Joe the Plumber," or have you watched a typical Obama campaign rally? The townhall audience is going to look a lot more like the latter.
Mittens is prepared. And all he has to do is not look incompetent or mean. Meanwhile, one more bad performance by Bobo, one little gaffe, and the election is OVER. Why? Because his already apathetic supporters will have what’s left of their spirit crushed like a menthol cigarette butt under the sole of a patent leather platform shoe. The thought of which brings a smile to my face.
The next debate is in "town-forum" format and you just know that we are going to see the return of pony-tailed guy, or some variation thereof, caterwauling about what the government needs to do for him.
In this debate, we will likely see Romney challenged on the "47% video" as well.
The good news is that Romney will not exactly be marking time. He'll also have time to prepare and improve and he'll bring the confidence that he gained in the first debate. So any improvement on Obama's part should be offset or even surpassed by the further improvement we will see in Romney.
I think Romney will have adequate responses for whatever they throw at him and he'll have some zingers of his own.
In fact, I have the perfect zinger for him...Romney should bring up all Obama's broken promises including his 2009 proclamation that he would be a "one-term president" if he didn't turn around the economy in three years.
Romney should then look at him and say "Ironically Mr. Obama, this appears to be the only promise you are going to be keeping."
I'm not disagreeing with you that the audience will be filled with Obama worshipers. What I'm saying is that this guy just plain doesn't like average people. And he is much too lousy an actor to keep it off his face.
I agree with your view that the townhall venue plays into the perceived affability and likeability strengths of Obama. However, it worked in ‘92 for Clinton before he had been elected and had a real record. Romney eviscerated Obama Wednesday night in a very decent, but forceful way.
In one answer he listed out how we know Obama has failed because the number of people on foodstamps has climbed from 32 million to 47 million, because 50% of this year’s college graduates can’t find work, because unemployment, because, because...
This approach is so effective because it deflates Obama’s good acting skills by countering with the truth. Every time Romney counters Obama’s rhetoric in a debate with the facts of Obama’s presidency, the balloon further deflates. Clinton’s ‘96 reelection was fortuitous for him because the American people voted a GOP congress in the ‘94 midterm who instilled discipline, and Clinton adapted to it with his Triangulation strategy. Obama has shown total contempt for the 2010 midterm election results and his results in governance has sealed his fate.
Romney, in spite of differences I have with him, is very disciplined and always prepared. He will defeat Obama.
I disagree. Obama can only do well in that format if the hall has been stuffed with his supporters and he's been briefed in advance on the questions they will ask [a distinct possibility.]
The guy is now famous for his inability to answer questions off-the-cuff. Romney will shine in this format, but Obama will be declared the winner.
Reagan was shot by an assassin and was smiling when he walked into the emergency room!!! People loved Reagan since he was governor of California! Obama is definitely NOT Ronald Reagan.
Few men get a second chance to make a first impression. Reagan was one.
Obama is a skinny little pencil necked little jagoff. Stick a fork in him
That cracking sound you heard Wednesday night was millions of necks across the nation responding to the epiphany that the media-crafed images of Obama and Romney were lies...
Can you imagine what that debate must have done to Bobo’s self-confidence? It’s like a boxer who has risen to the top on the basis of bouts he didn’t know were fixed all of a sudden going against a skilled professional. And he is facing the same opponent in two more fights!!!
He’s gonna need even more relaxation techniques for the next 2 debates if there are 2 more debates. i predict he will bow out before the 3rd on foreign policy.
Doubt it. That’s never been his strong suit, he isn’t Clinton. Very difficult for a malignant narcissist to empathize.
I am old enough to have voted for Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was my favorite President. Barack Obama is no Ronald Reagan.
Source: a VP candidates who ran in 1992 - but with the subject name changed! LOL!
This is my biggest worry right now, because without it, Obama cannot win. 70 million Americans saw him collapse. There will be 80 million next time. If he bounces back and creams Romney, he will likely triumph.
THAT is just perfect.
[Does anyone believe the next debates will have 2/3’s that many viewers?]
Yes. The media will hype it to no end. Then they will pack the Townhall with Obamabots. Obama feeds off of an Obama loving crowd. They will then ask fawning questions to Obama and let him frame the economy as on a strong rebound. Romney will be asked questions about Todd Akin and the Republican War on Women. I expect Obama to come off stellar in the Townhall debate and the crowd will cheer for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if the crowd boos Romney. The moderator will also work harder to help Obama the next time. I also believe Obama will do well in the Foreign Policy debate. The fact that Osama died on his watch will give him confidence in that one.
“Bear in mind that Obama was President of the Harvard Law Review, and is generally considered a strong debater”
Remember OBOZO became the “president” of the Harvard Law review because there was a tie between 2 other candidates and to settle matters they made an affirmative action pick and gave the title to obama even though NOBODY voted for him. Recall that even Hildabeast wiped the floor with OBOZO.
Unlike similar ‘townhall’ formats where he’s playing to a packed house of his own choir, this townhall will be filled half with Obama’s camp and half with Romney’s. He won’t be able to expect the full adulation of his audience.
And this Harvard Law Review business is making me crazy. He was the 2nd President of the HLR AFTER they changed the criteria to achieve ‘diversity.’ Unlike those who’d come before him (save one) he did not EARN the post by being the top student in the class. It was handed to him (as, one might assume, was admission). There is no record of even ONE Obama-written article (unheard of from ANY law school’s review).
“It is probably going to take more than that. Romney just negated several hundred million dollars worth of negative ads by acting sincere. Obama blew his Messiah image and looked instead like a pompous teenage smart Alec. Even his best supporters have accused him of being high on something. Obamas balloon has been popped. “
I agree. I think Obama is going to blow it big-time.
All his supporters think he wasnt aggressive enough.
In fact, Obama was pretty aggressive at first, but his lies got stopped cold by Romney’s insistent rebuttals.
If Obama attacks hard but Romney comes back with calm logic and doesnt get rattled, Romney will win again.
Obama is stuck because what he has are a bunch of lies.
$5 trillion is a lie:
I agree with you that hussein’s cheerleaders will do what you say.
They’ll just be doing it to far fewer.