Skip to comments.Election 2012: Wisconsin Tightens Considerably (O49, R47)
Posted on 10/06/2012 5:25:15 PM PDT by Lexinom
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Not good enough.
welcome to 30 minutes ago.. or two posts down :)
Wisconsin is smarter than the polls!!! I am confident they’ll pull for Ryan as they did for Walker.
I don’t believe this poll. I don’t believe Obama will get over 45% in November. Wisconsin elected a Republican govenor twice in a year and the second time by a wider margin. These crap polls are probably making Wisconsin voters increase that margin for the presidential election.
By comparisson, PPP, in the recall election, had Walker up by 5% LV and 4% RV. He won by 7%.
Project that 2-3% error into this one and it’s even or Romney up 1%.
Republicans are pretty fired up in this state-or so it would appear if you look at the primary:
Wisconsin Republican primary voter turnout surged more than 91 percent in 2012 from 410,607 voters in 2008 to over 785,000 on Tuesday.
A lot of dems are in for some heartbreak come November 7th from believing all these ‘polls’. You better believe I will be the guy standing there smiling holding a sign that says “WE HAD AN ELECTION, YOU LOST”.
But Obama can just give away more and more cell phones.
Don't worry, Chuck Todd will point that out tomorrow.
Living in Wisconsin I can tell you though that there actually are people here who will vote for Obama and Scott Walker.
This camp is made up of people who are taxpayers and like the fact Walker lowered their taxes and cut our noveau riche public teachers and their fat pensions down to size.
However this same voter also doesn’t trust the boss, the man, rich guys, etc. They won’t vote Romney in a national election. So I don’t think we will get 1 for 1 correlation Walker for Romney voting here.
That said, I think Romney has a chance for a 10,000 vote type squeaker win here.
I played with the EC map at 270towin.com and I think OH will be the Ground Zero of the 2012 election. If Romney wins it, he is going to be President for sure. Nothing else matters. 306 R 232 D. If Obama wins OH, he can win by a close margin, 271 to 267.
We’ll have to see how it goes with the vice presidential debate and the remaining presidential debates that are going to be held this month before we can say for sure which man is going to win this fall.
Being that they elected a Republican senator and governor in 2010 and just recently defeated the recall effort of Gov. Walker, I can't picture that state voting to re-elect Obama. Especially since they have one of their own on the GOP ticket.
PPP is strictly a push poll operation by the left wing ‘Kos’.
Any results it produces in any direction are worthless.
I’ve been contacted by them twice.
On most questions, they only give you answer options that fit with a lib-left narrative.It’s laughable.
IND is the bellwether state... in 2008 it was a long night there and in the end Obama won it narrowly.
Romney needs to win it by better than 20 points or its going to be another long night.
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I go shooting in southeast WI, and getting there involves driving down a number of secondary roads through farm country and smaller towns...during the Walker recall it was interesting to watch the yard sign situation evolve.
As I’ve gone through that area since the summer, I’ve seen more and more Romney signs appear...and as of last week I haven’t seen a single Obama sign.
I don’t know about 20; but I will give you 10-15.
it is a PPP Poll Democratic Pollster! Democratic pollster Dean Debnam founded the company. They do polling for left leaning entities!!! They are usually pretty far off the mark also they did a automated phone poll no body talks to you. Are you a Democrat press 1 Rep press 2... vary suspect!!!
No question WI will go R/R. Repubs need to send every dime to OH, VA, FL, and CO. Whatever’s left, MI (yes, MI).
If Romney wins every Southern state plus Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado, he wins.
Why? And by 20 pts? Color me dubious.
Obama won Indiana by 1% in 2008 while Bush won Indiana by about 16% in 2000 and 21% in 2004.
unfortunatly your right as this is a non-Confederate state, for other words a Commie stronghold despite Walkers victory.
Hopefully he will tell them to vote for him so many times on their Obama phones that they will become immune and ignore the messages.
“Secure our Future” was running ads in both MI and WI. If Ryan can make a stop in Rockford, IL for two hours...ah nevermind.
If Romney/Ryan can tie Zero to future liberal judge appointments, it may fire up the base even more.
A lib judge just shot down Walker’s reform law, IIRC (or was it the voter ID law, or both?)
That said, it's looking very good, and if I'm not mistaken Bush came very close to taking WI at least once.
OF: CO, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, VA, WI
I rate them as follows (from most to least probable for Romney):
NC (+3), OH (+2) , NV (+2), NH (+2), FL (0), VA (0), IA (-1), CO (-2), WI (-2)
I’m thinking NC is moving off the table.
I’m thinking we’re looking good in OH, NV and NH
I’m thinking FL and VA are ground zero.. Technically, we could win without Florida, but that would mean carrying al the other battleground states. If we carry FL but not VA, we could still win by carrying any one of CO, IA and WI, in addition to NC, OH, NV and NH.
So, I’m thinking FL is back to ground zero; but, because of the closeness and the size of the following four states, I think we will see the candidates devoting a lot of time, advertising and field operatives in FL, OH and VA.
As of right now, with continued good luck among the dwindling undecideds, and with some of the Johnson supporters shifting to Romney, I’m thinking we’ll carrying all of the battlegrounds plus NM and PA.
Considering what Scott Walker has done for Wisconsin, I cannot fathom why anybody other than a committed welfare case or union thug would ever vote for Obama.
I would look at SteveAustin’s #11. He knows something about the voting dynamics in WI.
The problem we have here is that we passed a really solid voter ID law last year. A liberal judge in Madison struck it down and the lib judges have it bottled up in the appeals court. Our one vote conservative majority supreme court has refused to take up the case until the appeals court has had a chance to rule on it. So voter ID will not be in place for the election next month,
We do have our share of voter fraud here. The city of Milwaukee is loaded with invalid or outdated voter registrations. I think the Dem candidate can pick up a good chunk of fraud votes here.
The bigger issue we have in Wisconsin is the fact Obama is black. There is a good chance that a larger part of the black community comes out for Obama whereas they didn’t have interest in other non Presidential elections over the last two years.
For whatever reasons, the black community in Milwaukee really didn’t get energized by the Scott Walker elections. The real state money here goes to the largely white teachers and public employees and those were the motivated voters in our Walker battles.
Don’t forget Michigan - it’s looking like the race there is tight enough to deem it a swing state.
Has Aaron Rodgers endorsed Romney/Ryan yet? In a tight race, that sort of thing might make a difference to last-minute deciders...
Seeing good news in Colorado. It’s another ‘ground zero’ state.
This is a 5 point swing. States like NH, IA and NV are now in play or in Romney’s camp. Ohio is the ground zero swing state, but with Romney looking like he’s up a few points overall, Obama is the one with a lot of exposed truf to defend, including WI.
This race has turned a corner. It was looking shaky in September but no longer.
I’m glad to see all these state polls coming out. I was growing worried that our side may become a bit dejected, which would affect volunteer and GOTV efforts. I rather suspected, though, that Romney had been holding back until the debates as those are his strong suit. His strategy, if I’m reading it properly, is to peak at the right time - not too early.
A LOT of dems stayed home during the recall. This is the reason that Mike Tate, the head of the Wisconsin Dems, wanted the recall during the Presidential.
Polls still have Baldwin up +4 here in this state as well.
I just don’t think my home state of NM will go red. Favorite son, Gary Johnson, is running strong here and has the largest audience local radio show host in his corner. Plus, NM keeps getting bluer with all of the Californicators moving here.
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A one point Dem advantage in a Democrat poll ? In 2008 Dems had a 6 point advantage in the exit polls. Seems like an awfully reasonable breakdown, but why ?
Are they setting up Obama for a big bounce after the next debates when they go back to their D+10,11 or 12 model ?
I’ve been thinking that. The pollsters are in a position to control the momentum for the race.
I would wait for the internals. They tell the real story.
MI is next on my list, right after PA. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if MI went red and PA stayed blue, or neither or both. But, I would be surprised, in the absence of a major development, Romney were to lose. Please bear in mind I’m assuming (A) a turnout something between 2004 and 2008, (B) a two-to-one break of the remaining undecideds, and (C) a shift of half of the support currently being won by Johnson to Romney (which mainly affects CO, NM and NV).
Your point about black voters in WI (and elsewhere) is right on target. Voter participation really jumped in 2008, due mainly to two demographics: (1) blacks and (2) young adults. I am thinking the blacks will be back, although maybe in not as large a number, and that the young adults will return to their former level of voter participation. This is why I think the 2008 model is too optimistic for the Dems (b/c the youth won’t turn-out) and the 2004 model is too optimistic for the Reps (b/c/ the blacks will turn-out).
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