Skip to comments.Election 2012: Wisconsin Tightens Considerably (O49, R47)
Posted on 10/06/2012 5:25:15 PM PDT by Lexinom
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I’m glad to see all these state polls coming out. I was growing worried that our side may become a bit dejected, which would affect volunteer and GOTV efforts. I rather suspected, though, that Romney had been holding back until the debates as those are his strong suit. His strategy, if I’m reading it properly, is to peak at the right time - not too early.
A LOT of dems stayed home during the recall. This is the reason that Mike Tate, the head of the Wisconsin Dems, wanted the recall during the Presidential.
Polls still have Baldwin up +4 here in this state as well.
I just don’t think my home state of NM will go red. Favorite son, Gary Johnson, is running strong here and has the largest audience local radio show host in his corner. Plus, NM keeps getting bluer with all of the Californicators moving here.
Please add me to the ping list.
A one point Dem advantage in a Democrat poll ? In 2008 Dems had a 6 point advantage in the exit polls. Seems like an awfully reasonable breakdown, but why ?
Are they setting up Obama for a big bounce after the next debates when they go back to their D+10,11 or 12 model ?
I’ve been thinking that. The pollsters are in a position to control the momentum for the race.
I would wait for the internals. They tell the real story.
MI is next on my list, right after PA. But, I wouldn’t be surprised if MI went red and PA stayed blue, or neither or both. But, I would be surprised, in the absence of a major development, Romney were to lose. Please bear in mind I’m assuming (A) a turnout something between 2004 and 2008, (B) a two-to-one break of the remaining undecideds, and (C) a shift of half of the support currently being won by Johnson to Romney (which mainly affects CO, NM and NV).
Your point about black voters in WI (and elsewhere) is right on target. Voter participation really jumped in 2008, due mainly to two demographics: (1) blacks and (2) young adults. I am thinking the blacks will be back, although maybe in not as large a number, and that the young adults will return to their former level of voter participation. This is why I think the 2008 model is too optimistic for the Dems (b/c the youth won’t turn-out) and the 2004 model is too optimistic for the Reps (b/c/ the blacks will turn-out).
It is interesting that I live in a nation composed of this strand, but I have to endure it. What I cannot abide is that they make me live in their dysfunctional world.
“Im thinking were looking good in OH, NV and NH”
Those are going to be some of the toughest swing states.
Of the battleground states, the only one that I think should be moved off the list (moved to leans Romney) is NC. Agreed?
With regard to OH, Rasmussen’s most recent poll shows Romney down 1, 50 to 49, which supports your argument. Also, Romney and the RNC put in a very big buy for ads for this state for this week, relative to the other battleground states, which also supports your argument.
Supporting my argument that Romney is +2 in Ohio is the average of eighteen polls conducted over the past thirty days, re-weighted for a even Republican-Democrat partisan split on election day. My number, +2, hasn’t changed for six weeks.
My reasoning for NH and NV is similar, but based on a +4 GOP advantage in NH, but with fewer polls.
Now, with the exact same reasoning, I have come up with dead heats for VA (+1 Democrat advantage in turnout) and FL (net zero partisan advantage in turnout). This is why I think FL and VA will be tougher for us.
But, I agree with you that OH, NH and NV will be very tough.
that would be great but i wonder if it’s against team rules?
True of most rural areas. Unfortunately, most voter do not live in rural areas.
When the future of the republic is at stake some rules are worth breaking
(e.g. some pastors plan to tell the IRS to pound sand, and endorse their candidate of choice).
Will those same people be voting for Tammy the degenerate or Tom?