OF: CO, FL, IA, NC, NH, NV, OH, VA, WI
I rate them as follows (from most to least probable for Romney):
NC (+3), OH (+2) , NV (+2), NH (+2), FL (0), VA (0), IA (-1), CO (-2), WI (-2)
I’m thinking NC is moving off the table.
I’m thinking we’re looking good in OH, NV and NH
I’m thinking FL and VA are ground zero.. Technically, we could win without Florida, but that would mean carrying al the other battleground states. If we carry FL but not VA, we could still win by carrying any one of CO, IA and WI, in addition to NC, OH, NV and NH.
So, I’m thinking FL is back to ground zero; but, because of the closeness and the size of the following four states, I think we will see the candidates devoting a lot of time, advertising and field operatives in FL, OH and VA.
As of right now, with continued good luck among the dwindling undecideds, and with some of the Johnson supporters shifting to Romney, I’m thinking we’ll carrying all of the battlegrounds plus NM and PA.
Don’t forget Michigan - it’s looking like the race there is tight enough to deem it a swing state.
I just don’t think my home state of NM will go red. Favorite son, Gary Johnson, is running strong here and has the largest audience local radio show host in his corner. Plus, NM keeps getting bluer with all of the Californicators moving here.
“Im thinking were looking good in OH, NV and NH”
Those are going to be some of the toughest swing states.