Skip to comments.Demography is Destiny: Why the Falling U.S. Birth Rates Are So Troubling
Posted on 10/07/2012 12:17:06 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Were becoming Europe. At least, that’s what a long line of U.S. birth-rate figures seems to being telling us. And that’s bad news for the future of the country.
New numbers released by the U.S. government on Tuesday show record-low birth rates in 2011: the general fertility rate (63.2 per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44) was the lowest ever recorded; the birth rate for teenagers ages 15 to 19 declined; birth rates for women ages 20 to 24 hit a record low; and rates for Hispanic and non-Hispanic black women dipped. Some birth rates remained unchanged, like those of women in their late 40s. Only women ages 35 to 39 and 40 to 44 are more likely to have babies now than in the past.
The data are part of a broader postfinancial crash trend. Every year since 2007, when the number of births in the U.S. hit 4.3 million, Americans have brought fewer babies into the world. Much of that has to do with the recession: Americans apparently decided that they couldnt afford to have as many kids in an unstable economy, even if they were married.
Such declines are typical during economic crises. During the Great Depression, birth rates dropped significantly, and the same thing happened during the stagnation of the 1970s. Weve seen this previously throughout the last 100 years, says Mark Mather, a demographer for the Population Reference Bureau. Fertility rates drop in periods of economic stress.
It appears that the decline in birth rates has at least begun to slow, likely reflecting the fact that Americans are feeling more confident about their economic future. The birth rate fell by 1% in 2011, as opposed to the 2% and 3% drops in prior years.
(Excerpt) Read more at business.time.com ...
Even before the euro crisis, experts were sounding the alarm over Europes gloomy demographic future. How is the continent supposed to take care of an aging population when its birth rates are pointing toward a shrinking workforce in the decades to come?
The U.S. rate hasnt fallen to European levels yet. The birth rate of children per woman in the U.S. is about 1.9. But the downward trend will almost certainly force the U.S. to rethink how to financially support the elderly and fund programs like Social Security and Medicare, ongoing economic debates that will take on even more weight as the country ages.
What we need to do is give a tax breaks on FAMILIES... that is because both parents are working 2 or more jobs to pay taxes. We need to give families a life...
A trend noticed and written about by Patrick Buchanan a decade or so back.
Families trying to maintain a modest standard of living by abandoning large families.
I’m from a 5 children family. When I was growing up in the 60’s that was the norm in my all white suburban neighborhood.
Mexican Americans are breeding like rabbits. It is a bit ironic that the problems brought about by falling birthrate might in some way be mitigated by this.
This is what happens in a welfare state. The cost of having children rises, because of the burden government puts on producers to support everybody else. Also, people tend to think they do not need children to help them in their old age, as government has taken over many of the duties and responsibilities formerly the purview of families. Finally, as women pursue careers, they are less likely to want many kids.
So, irresponsible people and Muslims are having kids that the rest of us support. The future does not look bright.
Sums it up accurately.
The 47% are breeding like rabbits.
One has to wonder about what the difference is between conception rates and birth rates.
Are conception rates changeing?
Is the lowered birth rate due to the higher fetus murder rate?
If we were not advertising for women to use Planned parenthood as a birth control method and paying for their multiple trips there, what would the birth rate be?
Now we are paying for free contraceptive devices, it can be seen to anyone with an ounce of common sense that it has become the role of the government to decrease the population.
Our Government does not want whites and Negroes to breed, yet they are perfectly fine with Hispanics and Muslims repopulating America.
If this isn’t the plan, it is certainly the result.
This embrace of feminism is the number one reason IMO. Female fertility starts declining at age 25 yet you rarely see married women in that age group with kids. Girls are taught to establish themselves in a career first, then have children. That in and of itself will cause a woman to have few or zero children.
it’s funny that birth rates go down in 1st world countries in times of economic crisis...
and yet ... in 3rd world countries that live in a constant state of financial crisis... birth rates are skyrocketing.
****the birth rate for teenagers ages 15 to 19 declined****
This is the only ‘news’ in the article and it’s good. As for the rest of the ‘data’ there are no surprises. Marriage used to be the safe house for having children and, prior to birth control methods - the sky was the limit. i.e. more children to care for the farm - and later, the elderly parents.
The ebb and flow of birth rates seems to follow - or lead existing population crises. In history birth rates were affected by drought, crop/food shortages, wars, flu/plague pandemics, depressions. Today the birth rate is affected by scientific manipulations, sexual identity and road rage;)
Where I live, the illegals are pumping out babies like there is no tomorrow.
The more kids they pump out, the more benefits they get from the government.
I hardly ever see whites, Asians, and blacks with babies.
This is so absolutely true.
Democrats often wonder how the lower-middle class can support Republicans. The reason you gave is precisely it. They know they're getting screwed by the welfare state.
The will never have a problem. They'll just pay more for what they need as prices rise.
But the lower-middle class is priced out of those things the welfare state provides for "free".
“How is the continent supposed to take care ... “
There’s a more concerning subject than that, and a reason I never understood why the radical muslims do what they do, especially since they are so patient.
You need 2.2 kids per each couple to maintain a population (in this case, population= culture.) I forget the number for Europe - which resembles our blue states - something like 1.2. That’s a parabolic, not geometric curve - in the direction of ‘death of the culture.’
In Europe, the population slack is being replaced by Muslims.
In the US I believe the Red states save us at about even because Red State birth rates compensate for Blue States.
Mark Steyn was one of the (and perhaps THE) first to begin yelling about this 10 years ago.
It trumps politics - because it doesn’t matter whether the western culture populations move left or right. Why? They are eliminating themselves in reverse proportion to how bunnies multiply/replicate.
And who is replicating? And who is immigrating?
That’s why Mark’s theme is often on ‘Death of the West’ ... he’s not just saying ‘oh we are moving too left’ ... or that ‘gosh too much immigration’
What he’s saying is that we are KILLING OURSELVES by not replacing ourselves.
So I wonder sometimes why the muslims don’t just keep immigrating quietly into Europe, and then in a few generations they can have simply take over politically.
In a sense, having 1 child fewer than the 2.2 average needed to keep a population steady, is just one child an invading force never needs to kill. So we’re fighting their battle against us, for them. We’re on their side by not reproducing.
This trumps politics - because without enough lefties and righties to fight it out, in comes the third, dominant culture - whatever it is.
It was about 7 years ago, after reading Steyn and some others that I realized ... this is simply a more foundational subject than even the Constitution.
When there is no one left to practice the Constitution, or when the lumpen electorate can come up with a 3/4 majority - because the electorate is a ‘replacement culture,’ they can just amend, amend, amend, and bye bye Western Culture - both liberals and conservatives would perish in that fire.
No need for war - no need even for revolution. So why don’t the Muslim’s just wait it out - immigrate, immigrate, immigrate?
The French, maybe 7 years ago, in fear of exactly this, began rewarding couples financially for having more than 1 baby, and as I recall it was significantly more ... significant ... than simply adding a deduction for another dependent.
My 21 year old married daughter is dying to have kids. Her and her husband have decided to postpone children for another 4 years until the economy bounces back.
She’s very sad about it, but doesn’t feel like she has a choice.
I'm sorry, but this is not going to "mitigate" anything because these people and their children are not being assimilated into the society the way our grandparents were. It will, again, be more like Europe where you see different ethnicities living separately from the native populations, never truly becoming part of the nation.
In Europe there are a lot of "no go" areas in major ciites that have been taken over by immigrants; and, because they (as we are also doing) refuse to assimilate these populations, but, instead, decide that "diversity" trumps national survival.
I wish I could be more optimistic; but, since the education portion of our culture is ruled by the teacher's unions, the indoctrination arm of the Democratic Party, I don't see a lot of hope that these immigrants are going to help continue the American experiment because they are not interested in being Americans.
....and therefore, to solve this problem, we just need more immigration, right?
When I drive through a Hispanic town - and there are towns or parts of towns in NJ that are 50-90% Hispanic - almost every woman out walking has children with her, pregnant, one, two, three, four, small children. They don’t think they need that big house in the suburbs or that Lexus minivan to have chidlren.
I live where the white/Asian professional class goes to have children. Most Indians and Chinese have two children; the white families average higher, but not nearly enough to make up for all the women putting career first, having zero or one child in the more expensive cities.
Currently, 1.6 million legal and illegal immigrants settle in the country each year; 350,000 immigrants leave each year, resulting in a net immigration of 1.25 million. Since 1970, the U.S. population has increased from 203 million to 310 million, i.e., over 100 million. In the next 40 years, the population will increase by an additional 130 million to 440 million. Three-quarters of the increase in our population since 1970 and the projected increase will be the result of immigration. The U.S., the worlds third most populous nation, has the highest annual rate of population growth of any developed country in the world, i.e., 0.963% (2011 estimate,) principally due to immigration.
Immigration will not solve our aging problem however. The median age of immigrants in 2010 was 41.4 compared to 35.9 for natives.
birth rate of children per woman in the U.S. is about 1.9. But the downward trend will almost certainly force the U.S. to rethink how to financially support the elderly and fund programs like Social Security and Medicare, ongoing economic debates that will take on even more weight as the country ages.
Even if the fertility rate were 2.1 (replacement level), we would still have a problem. In 1950 there were 16 workers for every retiree; today it is 3.3; and by 2030 it will be just 2.2. 10,000 people are retiring daily and will continue to do so for the next 20 years. By 2030 one in every five will be 65 or older--twice what it is now.
SS and Medicare are pay as you go programs, i.e., today's workers pay for today's retirees. SS started running in the red in 2010 and Medicare Part A started running in the red in 2008. These programs are unsustainable. They must be changed or they will consume the entire federal budget.
That is sad, so different from when my wife and I were young. We had a child in our mid-twenties despite being poor, and we didn't care (middle of the Carter regime). We were happy and got by until things improved. Our daughters did the same, having children despite trying to get by, and have steadily improved their economic situation. Children don't necessarily need money, but they do need love and attention. I can understand postponing if that can't be provided.
Mexicans stop breeding when they move to the cities. It’s happening the world over. The problem is not just selfish,careerist, feminized yuppies in the Europe and the U.S. — it’s global.
No problemo. We’ll just import more uneducated Mexicans and America-hating jihadists. That’ll fix things right up.
Medicaid, the nation’s largest public health insurance program, is a critically important part of the social safety net, serving more than 60 million individuals. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, Medicaid finances more than 40 percent of births in the United States and is the primary payer for two-thirds of the nation’s nursing home residents.
In economic downturns, Medicaid rolls expand as income levels drop and people lose jobs and the accompanying employer-sponsored insurance. Enrollment in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program is estimated to increase by one million for every 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate. From December 2007 through June 2010, Medicaid enrollment nationwide increased by almost 18 percent, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. In 2010, monthly Medicaid enrollment averaged 57.7 million, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
You are right. I imagine some people simply do not want to bring children into the world as it is now. Look at the debt hung around their neck as soon as they are born in the US.
Did you ever figure out how to define that 47%?
When there is nothing else to do...
That’s OK. Conservatives are having babies. The joke is on the liberals. Hahahahaha
Girlz just want to have fun (a la Cyndi Lauper)
Boyz just want to LARP or FPS.
That doesn’t leave much room for assuming the responsibilities of parenting.
Chesterton on birth control/population control: In 1925 Chesterton wrote an introduction to Charles Dickens A Christmas Carol in which he said that The answer to anyone who talks about the surplus population is to ask him, whether he is part of the surplus population; or if not, how he knows he is not.
Chesterton on birth control/population control:
In 1925 Chesterton wrote an introduction to Charles Dickens A Christmas Carol in which he said that The answer to anyone who talks about the surplus population is to ask him, whether he is part of the surplus population; or if not, how he knows he is not.
Hubby and I weren’t even middle class when we had our first, but we did have three things going for us that these kids don’t:
1. Hubby had a stable job with a steady paycheck. (There was *some* money to manage)
2. Medical Insurance
3. Hubby earned just enough that I could stay home with the baby.
Now my SIL has insurance with the Reserves, but is still looking for a job. Once he gets a job, his paycheck may not be enough and my daughter will probably have to work, too.
She wants to be a SAH homeschool mom, so that’s not going to fly. (”I’m not having kids so somebody else can love and raise them!”)
Once my SIL gets a job, they need to pay off some debt and get a little in an emergency fund. (Plus have the security that this job is *really* going to stick.)
My son just dropped out of the workforce to return to college. He hasn’t had a girlfriend in almost a year. (”What’s the point? I have nothing to offer a woman right now. Like I’m even close to being able to support a wife. Why have a relationship?”)
Depression. Desperation. Panic. Disappointment. Grief. Fear of the future. Feeling hopeless and useless. Bitter.
That’s our kids’ generation.
Both of my kids are rock-solid conservatives and they are both determined to vote. My son is praying for an energy boom so he can put his mechanical skills to work. (He’s been talking about leaving the country to find work if things don’t turn around within the next three years.)
Thats our kids generation.
Wow, seems true. When we were young we were naive and didn't know better to fear the future. Chalk it up to modern media indoctrination? One daughter doesn't have insurance and decided to have a mid-wife deliver her baby. We were concerned about the childbirth not taking place in a hospital, but she was optimistic and all turned out well. Our other daughter went ahead and had her baby despite her husband being unemployed for the last couple years. They both wanted babies and tried to get pregnant. Times are difficult, everyone's situation is different, but I really hope young people don't give up on raising families of their own.
One bright side, sort of, is that it's the blue states that are reproducing at Euro DeathSpiral rates.
In a sense - in other words - why fight the liberals? They are killing themselves off - red state babies in a few generations should start winning out at the polls. But it's more complicated than that as LibertarianLiz points out.
Immigration of those who do not accept and embrace Western culture - particularly the Enlightenment principles upon which, in addition to a Creator, we were built ... they only need time, and eventually, they won't need a judicial branch to wreck the Constitution ... they can simply and legally use the voting booth lever. If 4 western culture couples each have 1 child, and that continues, skip one generation and 8 westerners just went to 1.
If I'm remembering correctly that many European nations are at 1.2 or so ...
It's why Mark Steyn calls Europe "Eurabia."
It's rather bleak.
Free birth control and abortions (and big government making life so expensive that it's only smart to have 1.2) is cultural suicide.
One viewpoint for Christians is that this is simply the physical expression of God's spiritual wrath that will be visited upon Judeo-Christian societies for the west's disrespect for life.
The media portrays women as the default victim in almost every case (ref: Reddit/MensRights). Men of my generation are getting sick and tired of this. More and more our society is being bastardized and we are being punished for our hard work.
A non-trivial portion of men under 30 have decided to forgo the traditional school-marriage-kids-retire path through life. Many have chosen to forgo relationships with women altogether because the cost-benefit it out of whack. But you will NEVER see this as a conclusion from the fem-centric sociologists who do these studies. It doesn't jive with mainstream viewpoints, and quite frankly, men are told to "man up" and deal with it.
The birth rate will continue to go down, as will overall intelligence. Idiocracy here we come.
And yes, I'm wearing my asbestos underwear.
My daughter has multiple health problems. She can’t deliver a baby naturally. It’s too high risk for her to get pregnant without security.
Hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst. Don’t depend on everything working out right because it seldom does.
Might be, but the responsible young people are also holding off on having children until they have a stable financial situation.
I suppose that’s also true of many people. It does seem that those who shouldn’t have children, do so; while, those who should have children, don’t. That fictional movie “Idiocracy” is becoming truer with each passing day.
Undeniable reality #84: As atheism goes up, births go down.
Look it up.
Nothing to live for, you’re just a purposeless accident.
If if makes you feel any better, she only plans on having one or two (If she can), then adopting three or four more. :)
(She’ll raise good, little conservatives!)
HA! Speaking of libs - it seems like over-population used to be their mantra.
Maybe God is running low on new souls to hand out as the end approaches?
Today's Western woman knows that she can, at the drop of a hat, ditch dad and take his wallet for the next 21 years. Only three states are without caveat ending "child" support at age 18.
Hint: Muslims don't have this hanging over their head with their Sharia law so breeding goes on ad infinitum--not advocating Sharia law but today's Western family court law is absolutely ridiculous.