Skip to comments.Democrat Turnout Lagging 2008
Posted on 10/07/2012 3:27:40 PM PDT by Evil Slayer
The media polls showing Obama with a solid and consistent lead over Mitt Romney are only accurate IF the democrats equal or improve the turnout they had in 2008. That year, the Democrats had a 7 point advantage over the GOP at the voting booth. It was the Democrats biggest advantage over the GOP in the modern political age. I have long argued that the Democrats were unlikely to repeat their turnout advantage this year. Preliminary data from some key swing states suggests I'm right.
In 2008, in the critical battleground of OH, Democrats had a 14-point advantage over the GOP on absentee ballot requests. McCain actually won the vote on election day in the state, but Obama's advantage on early voting was so large we was able to win the state. This year, however, the Dem advantage is down to just 5 points so far.
In virtually every county in Ohio, the GOP have improved their position over 2008. In the largest counties, their position relative to Dems has improved 6-27 points. If these numbers hold up over the next few weeks, there is no way Dems will have another big turnout advantage over the GOP in OH.
In North Carolina, absentee ballot requests are much higher this year than in 2008. 25,000 North Carolinians have already returned their ballot. GOP voters have returned more than half the ballots, 13k, almost double the Democrats 7k ballots. At this point in 2008, only 9k GOP voters had returned ballots.
Democrats also have a narrowing advantage in Iowa this year. 77k more Democrats than Republicans have participated in early voting so far. But, their advantage last week was over 100k. Both are much lower than the 150k advantage they had in 2008. It isn't much higher than the 60k advantage they
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Don’t trust anything they say.
Simply find the difference between the Democrat and Republican votes ~ that's 69 million - 59 million = 10 million. Divide that difference by the Republican vote ~ or 10/59 = .15 more or less.
The "Democrat advantage" Is not simply the Democrat percent of the total vote less the Republican percent of the total vote ~ it's the VOTES themselves. The Democrats had 10 million more votes. We would hope they would not have anything like that this year.
Tehehehehe!!!!! I can't wait to go vote.
Vote early and often. :)
Romney has an excellent ground game and it will the GOP that increases it's turnout, like they did in the WI recall elections.