Posted on 10/07/2012 5:16:18 PM PDT by LS
Astabula: R down .5% from 08
Athens: was 4.3:1 D in 08, now just over 2:1
Auglaize: Rs up 2.5% over 08 (small numbers, total requests down, Rs over ½ way to entire 08 total)
Brown: Rs up 1.4% over 08 (all ballot requests down)
Carrol: Rs down 2% (small numbers 2111 total)
Champaign: big change---in 08 Rs “won” by 170 votes, now up almost 4:1
Clark: important county, in 08 Ds almost 2:1, now Rs have a 1000 vote advantage (about 3:2 lead) Total turnaround.
Clinton: 08, was a R 25% lead, now R 40% lead
Columbiana: 08, Ds won by 9%, now Rs up 8%
Coshocton: Rs up 4% over 08
Crawford: Ds won by 5% in 08, now trail by almost 12%; GOP already 3/5s of all 2008 absentee total in by 10/6
Cuyahoga: this is the big kahuna. Dems won by 36.6% in 08 absentees. This time, the difference is just under 6%!! Rs are already 9,000 absentee votes over 08 total!
*In the general election, ceteris paribus, this translates to a 60,000-70,000 D decline in this county alone!
Defiance, Rs 1.6% over 08
Erie: Another big D county. Margin of victory in absentees in 08 was 24%, today only 8%! Ds are 3700 short of 08 total, Rs just 790.
Fayette: Rs increased lead by 7% over 08
Franklin: Ds took this county by 21 points, and went into general with 3% lead in absentees. Today, they have a 5,500 vote deficit! A 7% net swing from 08.
Greene: Near Dayton, was a 4.2% D win in 08, now is more than 2:1 R for a 22 point swing.
Hamilton: (Cincinnati) Rs had a 3:2 lead in absentees in 08, today have a 2:1 lead
Jefferson, Ds had a 34/19 lead in 08, now lead 42/21
Lake: another important northern county, Rs have increased their % of total absentees from 5.7 to 6.3%
Licking: big swing from 34-34% of total absentees in 08 to 35-20 R advantage)
Lucas: Dems won by 25,000 votes in 08, now up only 6,000. 13 point swing in Rs favor
Mercer: Rs increase lead from 32-28 to 38-25%
Montgomery: big south-center D-heavy county. In 08 Ds had a 3:1 advantage in absentees. Today, 12,100 to 10,300, a rather massive decline. Rs within 1000 votes of already reaching 08 totals!
Muskingum: slight 1% D advantage in 08 to massive loss, more than 2:1 now.
Paulding: very small total numbers but a bellweather in that Bush won it and McCain lost it: Rs ahead in 08 absentees 33-17, today, 35-14.
Pickaway: 08 Ds had 1000 more absentees than Rs (12-point gap); today, Rs ahead by 600 votes and 14-point lead.
Portage: another 4% R increase over 08
Richland: Ds held a 400 vote edge in 08, now trail very slightly.
Ross: Ds had 17 point advantage in 08, now Rs have a 5-point advantage.
Seneca: Ds had very slight advantage in 08, Rs now have 3:2 advantage. Starke: Ds had an 8000 vote lead in 08 (44-27), now, 40-33 for a 10 point swing.
Summit: HUGE dropoff for Ds, from 43,500 ballots in 08 to 13,000. They lead this blue county, but the swing is from 47-14 to 25-18
Tuscarawas: Ds had more than 2:1 advantage in 08, now trail by 250 votes for a 25 point swing
Union: Rs had narrow 7% margin in 08, now have a 32-9% lead
Warren: important red county, no 08 data but Rs leading 4:1. McCain won, but by nowhere near this margin.
Wayne: Went D in 08 by 10%, now Rs hold a 12-point edge
Wood: Ds had a 1500 vote lead in 08 (10%) now Rs have a 100 vote lead. Big swing.
I hope the 70k decline in Cleveland translates to 70k R/R vote. If so that is over a third of the margin needed to make up from the 08 totals, and that is just one county.
Looking really, really good. Overall, so far, total absentees down (I think mostly from Ds) but that may change with early voting. However, I’m not sure if early voting is tallied with absentees. Either way, there is no way to spin these numbers as anything except massive bad news for Obama.
Mc Pain actually won the vote on election day in ‘08
Rats were able to “bank” hundreds of thousands of votes via absentee/early voting
If trend continues and ‘Pubs are able to win on election
day looks promising
Great job ! It’s nice to get real data on the ground. There’s no way the left or the press can spin this kind of info.
“...except massive bad news for Obama...”
Absolutely excellent.
IMHO
The time for absentee ballet requests in OH expired Friday, correct?
Yah, I think. I’ve been out of state so have to catch up.
Thank you for all this encouraging information. I expect Romney to win Ohio going away. In the 3-2-1 strategy, Ohio along with Indiana is part of the “2.” Since I fully expect Romney to carry all three of the southern states that comprise the “3” (Florida, NC, and Virginia), which state will fulfill the “1” requirement? Don’t worry. Expect Romney to carry several other states, including Pa., Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, and maybe Michigan. It won’t be as massive a victory as the Gipper in ‘84 but will surpass the ‘04 Bush victory.
If Romney wins every Southern state plus Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada, he forces a tie which the Republicans will win.
Excellent. Thanks, LS.
As a numbers guy I thank you for this. Important to note that Dems crossover much easier than Reps, so those numbers are likely even better than they appear.
Absentees are similar here in SE Iowa.
I still don’t think Obama has locked up Oregon, Minnesota, & New jersey (Yes I said New Jersey)
Haven’t much polling data to work with but Obama polls around 50% or just above in New Jersey and thats with skewed polling.
My companies there so I travel to North Jersey quite often and can tell you most people I meet like Christie. I think this will help Romney.
Don’t be surprised if it is red Nov. 6th.
I would not rule out Romney carrying PA in 2016 if he has a successful term, but now ? I rather doubt it. Bush fell short both times and Obama is still likely to get sufficient turnout from Philadelphia no matter how he fares elsewhere.
I think WI will be hard but that is the one I want to see Romney win. CO (and probably IA) should go for Romney if he wins.
That seems like a big change from the updates last week, doesn’t it? Is it your interpretation that Rs are closing the gap as the time goes on?
I understand that Rs are rapidly closing the gap in IA as well.
in 2008 96% of ballots requested were cast
Unlikely to win all three if he loses Ohio; road to WH goes through OH
I agree, I have thought all along that MN and OR are going to be VERY close. And that spells trouble elsewhere...
I don’t understand - does this also include early voting by party?
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