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Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says
University of Colorado Boulder ^ | OCTOBER 8, 2012 | University of Colorado Boulder

Posted on 10/07/2012 9:47:33 PM PDT by RobinMasters

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.

(Excerpt) Read more at colorado.edu ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:

1 posted on 10/07/2012 9:47:39 PM PDT by RobinMasters
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Might be a re-ping. I can’t remember.

Poll ping.


2 posted on 10/07/2012 9:50:38 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: RobinMasters

Whatever happened to that group of states that had decided to award their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote, or to divide them up according to the percentages?.........


3 posted on 10/07/2012 9:50:59 PM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: RobinMasters

Whatever happened to that group of states that had decided to award their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote, or to divide them up according to the percentages?.........


4 posted on 10/07/2012 9:51:32 PM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: RobinMasters

Minnesota AND Wisconsin? Hmmm..


5 posted on 10/07/2012 9:51:59 PM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: cardinal4
"Minnesota AND Wisconsin? Hmmm.."

And Pennsylvania!

Even Hmmmmm-er.

Hank

6 posted on 10/07/2012 9:56:44 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: RobinMasters

Romney wins Minnesota too? I will do cartwheels if this is the way the map looks on election day.


7 posted on 10/07/2012 10:00:53 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: RobinMasters

Cancer is blue.


8 posted on 10/07/2012 10:04:08 PM PDT by American Constitutionalist
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To: Red Badger

I thought CA proposed to do that, but did they actually enacted it into law. That will be funny, liberal CA is forced to award its 55 EV to Romney. Liberals would freak!!!!


9 posted on 10/07/2012 10:04:19 PM PDT by Fee
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To: County Agent Hank Kimball

Hey, don’t get me wrong, I’ll take it! But color me skeptical on Minnesota; they have made voter fraud an art form. Wisconsin is no slouch either..


10 posted on 10/07/2012 10:16:33 PM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: Red Badger

The CA law that divedes CA’s electoral votes according to percentages is triggered if and only if similar laws are passed by other states that constitute a majority of electoral votes.

I am sure if it was looking like only liberal states where passing such laws they would amend it. Ds rule the roost in Sacramento.


11 posted on 10/07/2012 10:24:15 PM PDT by Reaganez
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To: cardinal4
"Hey, don’t get me wrong, I’ll take it! But color me skeptical on Minnesota; they have made voter fraud an art form.

I have seen several obama adds here in Minnesota this weekend. These are the first of the election so he is starting to spend money defending what should be a safe bet for him.

Nothing from Romney that I've noticed yet but a few anit-obama ads from PAC's.

12 posted on 10/07/2012 10:34:29 PM PDT by voteNRA (A citizenry armed with rifles simply cannot be tyrannized)
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To: voteNRA
I just posted this on my FB;

I have grown more and more impressed with Romney the person. His charity work, is faith and family. I think that more and more folks will vote for him when they see these "person" traits transfer to Romney the candidate..

I was very skeptical at first. Herman Cain was my first choice, but it will not hurt as much to vote for Mitt. I know I'm going to get massively flamed for that post..

13 posted on 10/07/2012 10:49:04 PM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: voteNRA

My father in law lives in Itasca County, way up north. On our several trips there I have driven the length of both WI and MN. I understand The Cities, MN, and Madison and Milwaukee in WI are liberal enclaves. But the interior of both states we see a lot of Republican bumper sticker and the like. (The Native American communities notwithstanding)..


14 posted on 10/07/2012 10:57:37 PM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: cardinal4

FWIW - I live in Portland, Oregon and put my Romney Ryan sticker on my car - hope I don’t get keyed. Nevertheless I see VERY few zero stickers this time and last election his supporters were extremely aggressive. Not that I have any hope of Portland not taking Oregon blue....


15 posted on 10/07/2012 11:18:32 PM PDT by Aria ( 2008 wasn't an election - it was a coup d'etat.)
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To: cardinal4

Then they can flame me, too.

Not that I care.

As everybody knows, Salamanders are fire proof.

:)


16 posted on 10/07/2012 11:30:35 PM PDT by Salamander (Like acid and oil on a mad man's face, his reason tends to fly away.)
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To: cardinal4
"My father in law lives in Itasca County, way up north. On our several trips there I have driven the length of both WI and MN. I understand The Cities, MN, and Madison and Milwaukee in WI are liberal enclaves. But the interior of both states we see a lot of Republican bumper sticker and the like. (The Native American communities notwithstanding).."

Just like any other State the big cities are completely infested with liberals while the rest of the State is red. I live about 25 miles south-west of Minneapolis in a county that has elected 1 democrat (DFL is what they call themselves here) mayor of 1 city in the last 30 years.

Itasca County is beautiful country and your FIL has picked a great place to live! I will be up just North of there the first week of November to harass some deer and hopefully get some meat for the freezer.

About a 4 hour drive for 3 days then back home to serve as an election judge for a day then right back up to finish up the season. I figure it will cost me about $175 in gas to come home and serve for the election, but its well worth it!

17 posted on 10/07/2012 11:33:27 PM PDT by voteNRA (A citizenry armed with rifles simply cannot be tyrannized)
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To: RobinMasters

Except for PA, Minn, I think it is correct.


18 posted on 10/07/2012 11:50:08 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: voteNRA

Great fishing up there! I caught some nice one in Cohasset Lake, looked for Muskie in the Missisppi head waters, but all I caught was a nice smallmouth..probably ‘cause I hit with my spoon!


19 posted on 10/07/2012 11:53:54 PM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: Salamander

I seriously think his performance at the debate showed a side that most havent seen. A lot of folks here don’t likehimat all, but I think his business success and acumen will be a good start to healing the economy..


20 posted on 10/07/2012 11:57:29 PM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: cardinal4

He freaked me out and that takes some doing.

I didn’t think he had it in him.


21 posted on 10/08/2012 12:04:43 AM PDT by Salamander (Like acid and oil on a mad man's face, his reason tends to fly away.)
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To: Jet Jaguar

I seem to remember that I asked you about a poll, and you answered my question about it.

You pinged me to a subsequent poll, but I don’t think I was able to reply at the time.

IOW, would you please put me on your poll ping list?

Talk about going around your hind end to get to your elbow. lol

Thanks in advance!


22 posted on 10/08/2012 12:06:29 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (~~~RAGE ~~~ I haz it.)
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To: cardinal4
Next time you're up by the head waters area, if you want to catch a Muskie take a trip over to Lake Plantagenet. I have caught some serious fish on that lake (over 45") and its a beautiful setting.
23 posted on 10/08/2012 12:10:05 AM PDT by voteNRA (A citizenry armed with rifles simply cannot be tyrannized)
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To: Aria

“FWIW - I live in Portland, Oregon and put my Romney Ryan sticker on my car - hope I don’t get keyed. Nevertheless I see VERY few zero stickers this time and last election his supporters were extremely aggressive. Not that I have any hope of Portland not taking Oregon blue....”

I live in the ‘burbs, and agree that there isn’t the intensity that there was in 2008. I saw my first Obama sign just today. It was home made, and on Scholls Ferry Rd.

BTW, the last poll I saw has Oregon light blue, and Obama up +3.

It might be close this year, just like it was during the recount in 2000.

I don’t think Romney will win, but maybe it will pull resources that would be spent in a battleground state.

WHY has he been in Wisconsin? I thought that state was a lock for him.


24 posted on 10/08/2012 12:14:37 AM PDT by dixiechick2000 (~~~RAGE ~~~ I haz it.)
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To: voteNRA

I was using a heavy weedless spoon and dragging along the bottom..


25 posted on 10/08/2012 12:27:55 AM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: Red Badger

Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes.


26 posted on 10/08/2012 12:34:57 AM PDT by Rightwing Conspiratr1
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To: Jet Jaguar

I think Romney will take Michigan and Nevada, but not Minnesota. Pennsylvania... that’s a tough one.


27 posted on 10/08/2012 12:36:40 AM PDT by Rightwing Conspiratr1
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To: cardinal4
"I was using a heavy weedless spoon and dragging along the bottom..

Did you snag a carp at least? :~)

Next time try fishing structure up there, mid-depth or top-water with depth-raiders or dark colored buck-tails with reflecting (silver) spoons.

I don't use live bait because I like to release after catch, but I've heard that a large sucker positioned correctly will do the trick. I'm guessing you should watch the bait fish and put the sucker a few feet below.

28 posted on 10/08/2012 12:40:10 AM PDT by voteNRA (A citizenry armed with rifles simply cannot be tyrannized)
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To: voteNRA

Noted. I caught a walleye on the bottom of the lake in the wisteria with the heavy spoon. minnesota is a summer playground, I have never been there in the winter..


29 posted on 10/08/2012 12:48:07 AM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: All


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30 posted on 10/08/2012 2:13:05 AM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: RobinMasters

WARNING:

Last night Venezuela lost because the fat, cancerous tumor, the DICTATOR Chavez “won”. Can the opposition prove the vote was “cooked”? It won’t do them any good even if hey can. The fat pig is there until he rots from the inside and is carried out in a box.

This should be a warning shot to all of US! If Obama, Jarrett, Axelrod, Holder and the rest of their thugs can STEAL our Presidential Election THEY WILL! It is up to all of us to see that that does not happen!


31 posted on 10/08/2012 3:50:35 AM PDT by WellyP (question!)
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To: RobinMasters

I will be pleasantly shocked if Romney wins in Minnesota.


32 posted on 10/08/2012 4:17:08 AM PDT by stevem
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To: Red Badger

I don’t think any state has actually passed that into law yet. And it would certainly have to come to a Supreme Court review.


33 posted on 10/10/2012 5:43:58 AM PDT by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: stevem
I will be pleasantly shocked if Romney wins in Minnesota.

I heard one of the Colorado modeling geeks on Hannity's radio show today. I think he said that MN is close to a toss up so he wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins it narrowly. He also said that, on average since 1980, they have called 45 of the 51 races correctly with the electoral totals correct +/- 28 (or maybe 22). So, due to the late breaking news from Libya I will go out on a limb and add 30 to their projected total for Romney/Ryan and predict a 360-178 Romney win. Hey, that means we take back the Senate, too.

34 posted on 10/10/2012 7:53:38 PM PDT by Homer_J_Simpson ("Every nation has the government that it deserves." - Joseph de Maistre (1753-1821))
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To: Aria
I am a visitor to Portland and when my car was parked near the Cadillac cafe my Romney-Ryan bumper sticker was stolen. Maybe that's the reason you are not seeing more bumper stickers. I guess I should be grateful that my car wasn't demolished. I will continue to place signs on my automobile, I refuse to be intimidated by the destructive actions of the rabid left even with my past experiences of “keyed” damage and a slashed tire,
35 posted on 10/19/2012 8:49:32 AM PDT by suomynona
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To: suomynona

eeee....glad your car wasn’t keyed! I am being careful where I park!


36 posted on 10/19/2012 6:50:07 PM PDT by Aria ( 2008 wasn't an election - it was a coup d'etat.)
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