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Posted on 10/07/2012 9:47:33 PM PDT by RobinMasters
An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.
According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win.
The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.
(Excerpt) Read more at colorado.edu ...
He freaked me out and that takes some doing.
I didn’t think he had it in him.
I seem to remember that I asked you about a poll, and you answered my question about it.
You pinged me to a subsequent poll, but I don’t think I was able to reply at the time.
IOW, would you please put me on your poll ping list?
Talk about going around your hind end to get to your elbow. lol
Thanks in advance!
“FWIW - I live in Portland, Oregon and put my Romney Ryan sticker on my car - hope I don’t get keyed. Nevertheless I see VERY few zero stickers this time and last election his supporters were extremely aggressive. Not that I have any hope of Portland not taking Oregon blue....”
I live in the ‘burbs, and agree that there isn’t the intensity that there was in 2008. I saw my first Obama sign just today. It was home made, and on Scholls Ferry Rd.
BTW, the last poll I saw has Oregon light blue, and Obama up +3.
It might be close this year, just like it was during the recount in 2000.
I don’t think Romney will win, but maybe it will pull resources that would be spent in a battleground state.
WHY has he been in Wisconsin? I thought that state was a lock for him.
I was using a heavy weedless spoon and dragging along the bottom..
Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes.
I think Romney will take Michigan and Nevada, but not Minnesota. Pennsylvania... that’s a tough one.
Did you snag a carp at least? :~)
Next time try fishing structure up there, mid-depth or top-water with depth-raiders or dark colored buck-tails with reflecting (silver) spoons.
I don't use live bait because I like to release after catch, but I've heard that a large sucker positioned correctly will do the trick. I'm guessing you should watch the bait fish and put the sucker a few feet below.
Noted. I caught a walleye on the bottom of the lake in the wisteria with the heavy spoon. minnesota is a summer playground, I have never been there in the winter..
WARNING:
Last night Venezuela lost because the fat, cancerous tumor, the DICTATOR Chavez “won”. Can the opposition prove the vote was “cooked”? It won’t do them any good even if hey can. The fat pig is there until he rots from the inside and is carried out in a box.
This should be a warning shot to all of US! If Obama, Jarrett, Axelrod, Holder and the rest of their thugs can STEAL our Presidential Election THEY WILL! It is up to all of us to see that that does not happen!
I will be pleasantly shocked if Romney wins in Minnesota.
I don’t think any state has actually passed that into law yet. And it would certainly have to come to a Supreme Court review.
I heard one of the Colorado modeling geeks on Hannity's radio show today. I think he said that MN is close to a toss up so he wouldn't be surprised if Obama wins it narrowly. He also said that, on average since 1980, they have called 45 of the 51 races correctly with the electoral totals correct +/- 28 (or maybe 22). So, due to the late breaking news from Libya I will go out on a limb and add 30 to their projected total for Romney/Ryan and predict a 360-178 Romney win. Hey, that means we take back the Senate, too.
eeee....glad your car wasn’t keyed! I am being careful where I park!
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