Posted on 10/08/2012 3:21:44 AM PDT by Kaslin
Can there be political bubbles like financial bubbles?
Financial bubbles, inflated by hopes and dreams, burst when reality negates any possibility that those hopes and dreams will be realized. At that point, sky high stock or bond or real estate prices come crashing down to earth.
Can the same thing happen in politics? Can a skilled politician, who has become popular with soaring rhetoric and promises, deflate when it starts becoming clear that he is not going to deliver?
Of course, I am thinking about our president.
Mitt Romney demonstrated in the first presidential debate that the considerable gap between President Obama’s rhetoric and his performance makes him a vulnerable candidate.
Yet, the president’s bubble is far from bursting.
Romney, in the debate, was aggressive but deferential toward Obama. He was deferential because, despite the poor state of the country after almost four years of the Obama administration, Barack Obama is still a popular president.
Recent polling shows his approval remains around 50 percent. At similar stages in the presidencies of the last two presidents voted out after one term, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, their popularity ratings were in the thirties.
What accounts for Barack Obama’s Teflon? How is it that, after almost four years of terrible economic results – high unemployment, sluggish growth, huge deficits and mounting national debt – that Obama’s persona is not more tarnished?
Shouldn’t today’s economic facts on the ground be sufficient to puncture the Obama bubble?
One part of the answer to this puzzle is the changing demographics of the country.
The United States today is a nation that is much less white, much less married, and less traditional than it once was. These are growing trends and each reflects in at least some large part constituencies with values supportive of Obama’s world view - activist government and moral relativism.
What was once the exception to the rule in America – not being white, not being married, not having traditional views on family, sex, and abortion – is now becoming the rule. And these constituencies are becoming sufficiently large to elect a president.
National Journal released a poll right before the debate showing Obama and Romney dead even nationwide – 47 percent each – among likely voters.
The poll shows Obama’s white support at just 38 percent.
Obama was elected in 2008 with 43 percent of the white vote. It appears that he could be re-elected with even less.
In Gallup’s polling of last week, Obama’s approval among white voters stood at 39 percent.
He gets 38 percent approval among those who attend church weekly compared to 55 percent among those who attend church seldom or never.
And his approval among married voters is 40 percent compared to 57 percent among those not married.
According to data compiled by the Tax Foundation, the large majority of those now filing tax returns in the U.S. are single. In 1960, 65 percent of all tax filers were married and 35 percent single. In 2010 it’s reversed - 61 percent of filers were single and 39 percent married.
When Barack Obama pushes for taxing the rich, he’s not just pitting those with the highest incomes against everyone else. He’s pitting married against singles. Eight of ten tax filers in the top twenty percent of earners are married. The majority of middle income and below filers are single.
It’s really a cultural divide, one you can be sure that Barack Obama is very aware of, that is keeping his bubble inflated.
The fact that Obama’s support is still this strong despite his terrible record sends a clear warning to those looking for a new birth of American freedom.
Romney and Ryan should consider taking these constituencies on directly – blacks, Hispanics, singles – explaining why America’s future hinges on shutting down the government plantation.
That’s why I have hope after listening to Mark’s show for so many years. Over the last year he has taken so many calls from people saying they were die hard Obama supporters and they saw the light, some real accounts.
Anyone who calls the President a “SKILLED POLITICIAN” is either an idiot, ignorant, or flat out lying.
The man has ZERO political skill... Don’t believe me? Look for yourself.. what are his political accomplishments? Ramming through legislation when his party was in power... since then, what has he done? Nothing.. Why? because he doesn’t have an ounce of political skill.
A truly skilled politician accomplishes things in the face of adversity, builds consensus, finds common ground and gets things done. This fool hasn’t accomplished anything since losing majority, and he wasted his political capital when he had the majority on a failed and hated mandate at a time the economy was crumbling.
Obama is no skilled politician, he’s an lazy, empty suit.
HUGE “If”s below ...
IF the reports and rumors that the pollsters are having only a 9% response rate, and If those choosing to not respond are skewed much more to disliking Obama (which I consider highly likely), we will know that in a little over four weeks when the vote occurs.
Many pollsters will realize what happened, and they will have to go into a major tizzy to try to discover polling strategies that will work.
I imagine that some very private and highly paid pollsters already have such strategies, but those polls are released only to high-paying clients.
A few additions to my “IF”s post ...
That scenerio also explains why so many pollsters swear they are getting major excess of Dems and Indys polled than conservatives/GOPers, as well as the 2010 election “surprise”.
Pray for another surprise.
” I have noticed that Rs have not been polling great with Asians. if you see polls to the contrary let me know. “
This mortifies me, and you are correct. Asians in California and elsewhere have voted Dem by a large margin. Chinese, Korean, and those from India must think Democrat equals “America”.... the dub s$its! Those immigrants from Russia and its outlying areas are mostly Republicans.
Let's assume that 2 are black, but the other (i.e. 40% of non-whites) must be hispanic or asian
Asians have conservative, family-oriented values. South Koreans are strong, conservative Christians and all would hate socialism and gay marriage. We need to do more to reach out and convince these people -- I don't know what quite frankly
“Why the Obama Bubble Still Hasn’t Burst”
Because the GOP has been hyjacked by the Extortion-Care-ites, and their installation of the Hillary of Massachusetts.
Because the Hillary of Massachusetts still embraces his signing of Extortion-Care, and has yet to declare his voiced “replacement” will not place Americans at the mercy of private insurance edicts.
“Asians have conservative, family-oriented values. South Koreans are strong, conservative Christians and all would hate socialism and gay marriage.”
Correct
” We need to do more to reach out and convince these people — I don’t know what quite frankly “
I don’t either, but our party hasn’t even tried.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.