Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily Tracking: MON 10/08: R:48% O:48% Obama -11%
Posted on 10/08/2012 6:38:40 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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This with a D +3.5 model.
Absolutely correct. The weekend bump now moves Obama up to being tied with Romney. He’s losing traction. I wish it were better news, but this is not bad. He’s in trouble. I will like it better when he remains behind even with the weekend bump.
Ras is still using his heavy dem bias on this poll.
All other polls today are confirming a 16% lead with independents for Romney, that means game over for Obama. McCain lost indies by 8 points at 52-44...They are showing Obama to Romney 52-35, even worse than what McCain polled.
I’d wait until Thursday before we can definitively say whether there is any big movement.
Looks like Romney got a huge bump on Thursday. And then Obama got a bump from jobs report. But not much.
So after debate and jobs report, edge I would say is with Romney. He was down 2 (pre debate/pre jobs report), and now even - and this is also a 3day weekend poll, Fri-Sat-Sun, which tends to favor Obama.
Let’s see where we are upon Friday morning’s poll release.
That should shake out the noise and provide a clearer picture of where race really stands. I think Romney will be up by 2-3 points.
Who gives a flying sh&& what Ras says! Unreal how anyone could fall for this tripe. 2010 was a sweep of huge proportions for conservatives. 2 years later the turd has done even more damage to our republic and people are falling for this BS!?
I thought it was determined to be D+5 now.
Not too bad considering the weekend.
The debate fundamentally shifted the race a solid two clicks in the right direction IMO.
Exactly 4 years ago today, Rasmussen had McCain down 7 to Obama at 52-45...I’d say Romney is holding his own just fine.
In 2008 thats all anyone talked about (indys). Now crickets, I wonder why
someone claimed that he reversed engineered Ras to get +3.5 D.
Ras himself i think said he had to up the dem bias as he could’nt get enough GOP’ers to participate, refused to participate.
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I want more than 2 clicks LOL Romney should be burying that man...just don’t understand this country :(
Ryan will be in Swanton, OH today then later to Rochester, MI.
From what I have heard from reading polling bloggers (Jay Cost, Sean Trende, etc), Rasmussen is using a D+3 or so sample (could be 3.5). I never heard of him using a D+5 this year.
And don’t forget, Rasmussen still has Republicans up +2.6 in party id - ending in September.
In 2010 for example, the September party id was D+2.1. And we know what happened 30 days later.
This will be a landslide of even bigger proportions, IMO.
The polls are pollster self interest biased. Usually politically correct, showing Obama having an edge and also promoting a close race for business money reasons. It is not that it isn’t close but there are so much self interests and agendas involved that the purpose of the polls to show reality/truth is completely thwarted.
But McCain did lose. So how does that compare to this?
This makes no sense.
Rass is not using “heavy dem bias.” D+3.5 is fair for a presidential election. All this means is that obama, protected by the media, the rockstar of the apolitical, has fallen far off his pace of 2008. Romney will gain as people grow comfortable with him over the next 2 debates.
This makes sense. None of my republican friends or family
would ever.ever answer a poll.
Marches and polls are participated by democrats. That’s just the way it is.
What does in 0bamaworld?
I feel that Rass is just doing it (D+3.5) to ‘play it safe’ with a ‘tie’ right now. But, the true markers point to Romney clobbering the ‘Bamster if the election were tomorrow. Actually, this (a tie or ‘close’ polling) plays it better for our camp because we have the ‘enthusiasm’ edge over the RATs. So, best to ‘disguise’ our advantage with a ‘close’ poll, than foster ‘complacency’ with a poll showing Romney +4 or +5.
You are correct. Ras is using D +5 now for no other reason than he didn’t like being an outlier from other polls. He got in line with the Obama media meme.
General consensus from both sides is that a minimum of 80% of likely voters are locked in...that is, nothing will change their mind as to which candidate they support..and I suspect it may be as much as 90$...but let's use the 80% number.
Mitt got a bump of about 4%..from 2% down to 2% ahead...if not more.
That means that one debate caused 20% of voters that are open to changing their mind to in fact do so...Mitt has the trend in his favor..
The left/dems will use a landslide to claim that America is “still racist”.
We should simply laugh at them and bury the race card forever.
Mitt got his debate bump to catch up and pull ahead then Obama got a job number bump to offset some of his debate setback and pull even. It’s going to be close.
Agreed and 70 million watched the debate. Everyone knows Romney not only looked better, he was on point, and Obama really had no direction in what he wanted to do or defense of his record.
I can’t explain the best pollster having it tied after that.
Damn. I hope it doesn’t shift back to Zero.
Seriously, tell me how Obama wins when he’s down about 16 with Independents?
It will be close don’t let anyone tell you other wise. Too many people don’t wanna see the first black president be a one term flop.
Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, ‘other’:2%
Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:00:13 AM · 74 of 170
Cruising For Freedom to tatown; profit_guy
If my reverse-engineering using profit_guys internals is correct, Rasmussens party ID breakdown is:
39.3%D 34.4%R 26.6%I
Rasmussen is using a +5D model.
Obama doesn’t win if that’s how it goes. But Romney made it harder on himself with the 47 percent remark. He wisely backed away from that but it’s still a hurdle to overcome.
Good old scotty... keepeing the race tight and his revenue up.
well it is a business....they will all have the polls tight for a while, encourages more spending on them.
Romney had a couple of big days that are rolling off now.
I expect The One to be back in the lead tomorrow.
No it won't, blowout city as it stands now.
A recent Obama rally in the battleground state of Colorado turned into something of a Seinfeldian air.
A scathing video by commentator Trapper that compares Obama to Costanza in a Seinfeld episode.... ..."a debate almost about nothing"...
..and that Obama takes 24 hours to respond....
Front page of Yahoo
As I have been saying for years, ALL pollsters have an agenda. I have never seen any sign ever that Ras was a Republican, people keep telling me he is.
I can be objective, it`s not like I am real real excited about Romney...Yes I am all in now for him because he is only alternative, but I still hold the same view I have held for years.
Ras is as much as saying that Romney got no bounce, He shouild be up by 10 in a poll.
Claims that Obama got a bigger bounce out of phony job numbers, he said as much between the lines.,..yes I am a between the lines reader and very good at it :)
CNN has a new poll out today saying Obama is up by 6 with likely voters nation wide...give me a break!!!
What happened to Blitzer saying a “scientific” (that`s what he called it late post debate night)poll showed 35% more likely to vote Romney as apposed to 18% Zero, from undecided voters??
All of a sudden Obama up by 6, leading in areas he should not.
There is no “science” in political polling in 2012 period! Regardless of what the number is.
Anybody that believes in polling needs to have head examined..sorry JMHO
Anybody that thinks we have a friend in Ras or any other pollster is also whacked out
My thought exactly.
It could be that the “liar” campaign is working. If you figure that Fox was the only one not promoting it, that means that the vast majority of news watchers over the weekend were being fed the propaganda that Romney was lying about his tax plan.
There is no 5 trillion tax plan, but how would you know that if the “news” is telling you that there is?
And don’t tell me BO won’t manipulate a jobs report right before the election when Repubs have no time to respond. You know he will. Too much is at stake and BO isn’t going to let a little thing like truth stand in his way.
“Ugh! Weekend effect, I suppose”
I went to Rasmussen’s page as linked above.
The results are mixed, no matter how you slice it.
The Senate race in Ohio is still a horse race (neither candidate has broken the 50% mark), but Virginia looks like a goner for George Allen, Kaine is at the 50% level.
Rasmussen shows Romney at 49% in Virginia with a shot at winning, but in Ohio, Obama has hit 50% with Romney trailing at 49% — that doesn’t leave much leverage to turn that contest around, unless we change some “likely Obama voters” into “likely Romney voters”. That’s going to be difficult. Without Ohio, Romney faces a Herculean struggle to amass enough votes to win in the Electoral College.
Florida is Romney 49%, Obama 47%, looks good for us.
I don’t know how old Rasmussen’s poll for Pennsylvania is, but his last-reported numbers were Obama 51%, Romney 39%. I know the race there is tightening, but it looks like Obama’s going to get PA.
This is going to be a bitter struggle to the very end, with lawsuits and claims of fraud which may even delay the final results in some states. I’m sensing this will become the “last-ditch attempt” by the ‘rats to steal the election, a la Al Franken.
Those here on FR who say it’s going to be a landslide — well, better think again. The fact that the election remains so close with a candidate as provenly destructive to the American ideal as is Obama indicates that there is now a huge electoral demographic that will never again support the “traditional American model”.
We are entering an era of bitterly divided politics — a “civil cold war”, if you will.
Still a tough fight ahead...
My personal opinion is that a lot of normally self described Democrats are too ashamed right now to admit it and thy identify themselves as independents.
The result being that they end up way over sampling democrats.
Plus the polls can’t really take into account the enthusiasm gap.
Just my two cents.