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Rasmussen Daily Tracking: MON 10/08: R:48% O:48% Obama -11%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/08/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 10/08/2012 6:38:40 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

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Ugh! Weekend effect, I suppose
1 posted on 10/08/2012 6:38:53 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Well....crap :(


2 posted on 10/08/2012 6:39:51 AM PDT by Michigander222
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To: SoftwareEngineer

This with a D +3.5 model.


3 posted on 10/08/2012 6:40:24 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Absolutely correct. The weekend bump now moves Obama up to being tied with Romney. He’s losing traction. I wish it were better news, but this is not bad. He’s in trouble. I will like it better when he remains behind even with the weekend bump.


4 posted on 10/08/2012 6:41:47 AM PDT by Shadowfax
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Ras is still using his heavy dem bias on this poll.

All other polls today are confirming a 16% lead with independents for Romney, that means game over for Obama. McCain lost indies by 8 points at 52-44...They are showing Obama to Romney 52-35, even worse than what McCain polled.

I’d wait until Thursday before we can definitively say whether there is any big movement.


5 posted on 10/08/2012 6:43:11 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Looks like Romney got a huge bump on Thursday. And then Obama got a bump from jobs report. But not much.

So after debate and jobs report, edge I would say is with Romney. He was down 2 (pre debate/pre jobs report), and now even - and this is also a 3day weekend poll, Fri-Sat-Sun, which tends to favor Obama.
Let’s see where we are upon Friday morning’s poll release.

That should shake out the noise and provide a clearer picture of where race really stands. I think Romney will be up by 2-3 points.


6 posted on 10/08/2012 6:43:31 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Who gives a flying sh&& what Ras says! Unreal how anyone could fall for this tripe. 2010 was a sweep of huge proportions for conservatives. 2 years later the turd has done even more damage to our republic and people are falling for this BS!?


7 posted on 10/08/2012 6:44:23 AM PDT by albie ("Work as if you were to live a hundred years. Pray as if you were to die tomorrow." Benjamin Frankli)
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To: Perdogg

I thought it was determined to be D+5 now.


8 posted on 10/08/2012 6:44:43 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: Michigander222

Not too bad considering the weekend.
The debate fundamentally shifted the race a solid two clicks in the right direction IMO.


9 posted on 10/08/2012 6:45:02 AM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Typical weekend bump, plus the phony unemployment figure and Obama can only get back to even. Romney going to hit him hard on foreign policy today and Ryan/Biden debate this week. With early voting now is the time to try and put this away.
10 posted on 10/08/2012 6:45:25 AM PDT by Conservative Actuary
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To: sunmars

Exactly 4 years ago today, Rasmussen had McCain down 7 to Obama at 52-45...I’d say Romney is holding his own just fine.


11 posted on 10/08/2012 6:45:31 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

In 2008 thats all anyone talked about (indys). Now crickets, I wonder why


12 posted on 10/08/2012 6:47:38 AM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
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To: tatown

someone claimed that he reversed engineered Ras to get +3.5 D.


13 posted on 10/08/2012 6:48:23 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Ras himself i think said he had to up the dem bias as he could’nt get enough GOP’ers to participate, refused to participate.


14 posted on 10/08/2012 6:49:59 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: All


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15 posted on 10/08/2012 6:55:06 AM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: Clump

I want more than 2 clicks LOL Romney should be burying that man...just don’t understand this country :(


16 posted on 10/08/2012 6:55:39 AM PDT by Michigander222
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To: italianquaker; LS; tatown

Ryan will be in Swanton, OH today then later to Rochester, MI.

Michigan!


17 posted on 10/08/2012 6:55:56 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

From what I have heard from reading polling bloggers (Jay Cost, Sean Trende, etc), Rasmussen is using a D+3 or so sample (could be 3.5). I never heard of him using a D+5 this year.

And don’t forget, Rasmussen still has Republicans up +2.6 in party id - ending in September.

In 2010 for example, the September party id was D+2.1. And we know what happened 30 days later.

This will be a landslide of even bigger proportions, IMO.


18 posted on 10/08/2012 6:56:02 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The polls are pollster self interest biased. Usually politically correct, showing Obama having an edge and also promoting a close race for business money reasons. It is not that it isn’t close but there are so much self interests and agendas involved that the purpose of the polls to show reality/truth is completely thwarted.


19 posted on 10/08/2012 6:58:40 AM PDT by Duke of Milan
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To: sunmars

But McCain did lose. So how does that compare to this?


20 posted on 10/08/2012 7:00:41 AM PDT by Kay
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To: SoftwareEngineer

This makes no sense.


21 posted on 10/08/2012 7:12:08 AM PDT by jersey117
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To: sunmars

Rass is not using “heavy dem bias.” D+3.5 is fair for a presidential election. All this means is that obama, protected by the media, the rockstar of the apolitical, has fallen far off his pace of 2008. Romney will gain as people grow comfortable with him over the next 2 debates.


22 posted on 10/08/2012 7:13:44 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: sunmars

This makes sense. None of my republican friends or family
would ever.ever answer a poll.
Marches and polls are participated by democrats. That’s just the way it is.


23 posted on 10/08/2012 7:14:57 AM PDT by Morris70
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To: jersey117
This makes no sense.

What does in 0bamaworld?

24 posted on 10/08/2012 7:14:57 AM PDT by mplsconservative
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To: nhwingut

I feel that Rass is just doing it (D+3.5) to ‘play it safe’ with a ‘tie’ right now. But, the true markers point to Romney clobbering the ‘Bamster if the election were tomorrow. Actually, this (a tie or ‘close’ polling) plays it better for our camp because we have the ‘enthusiasm’ edge over the RATs. So, best to ‘disguise’ our advantage with a ‘close’ poll, than foster ‘complacency’ with a poll showing Romney +4 or +5.


25 posted on 10/08/2012 7:15:53 AM PDT by LibFreeUSA
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To: Perdogg
Ryan will be in Swanton, OH today

Swanton: Gateway to Wauseon...


26 posted on 10/08/2012 7:16:02 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: tatown

You are correct. Ras is using D +5 now for no other reason than he didn’t like being an outlier from other polls. He got in line with the Obama media meme.


27 posted on 10/08/2012 7:16:05 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: nhwingut
It's HUGE if you look at the polls a little differently..

General consensus from both sides is that a minimum of 80% of likely voters are locked in...that is, nothing will change their mind as to which candidate they support..and I suspect it may be as much as 90$...but let's use the 80% number.

Mitt got a bump of about 4%..from 2% down to 2% ahead...if not more.

That means that one debate caused 20% of voters that are open to changing their mind to in fact do so...Mitt has the trend in his favor..

28 posted on 10/08/2012 7:18:06 AM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: nhwingut

The left/dems will use a landslide to claim that America is “still racist”.

We should simply laugh at them and bury the race card forever.


29 posted on 10/08/2012 7:19:04 AM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: jersey117

Mitt got his debate bump to catch up and pull ahead then Obama got a job number bump to offset some of his debate setback and pull even. It’s going to be close.


30 posted on 10/08/2012 7:22:59 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
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To: Michigander222

Agreed and 70 million watched the debate. Everyone knows Romney not only looked better, he was on point, and Obama really had no direction in what he wanted to do or defense of his record.

I can’t explain the best pollster having it tied after that.
Damn. I hope it doesn’t shift back to Zero.


31 posted on 10/08/2012 7:23:23 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

Seriously, tell me how Obama wins when he’s down about 16 with Independents?


32 posted on 10/08/2012 7:25:54 AM PDT by NoobRep
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To: NoobRep
Seriously, tell me how Obama wins when he’s down about 16 with Independents?

Particularly with all the surveys showing Dem registration declining since '08?


33 posted on 10/08/2012 7:27:07 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

It will be close don’t let anyone tell you other wise. Too many people don’t wanna see the first black president be a one term flop.


34 posted on 10/08/2012 7:27:22 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Perdogg

Nope, D+5:

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll (Rasmussen) - O:47%, R:49%, ‘other’:2%
Saturday, October 06, 2012 10:00:13 AM · 74 of 170
Cruising For Freedom to tatown; profit_guy

If my reverse-engineering using profit_guy’s internals is correct, Rasmussen’s party ID breakdown is:

39.3%D 34.4%R 26.6%I

Rasmussen is using a +5D model.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2941087/posts?page=74#74


35 posted on 10/08/2012 7:28:19 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: NoobRep

Obama doesn’t win if that’s how it goes. But Romney made it harder on himself with the 47 percent remark. He wisely backed away from that but it’s still a hurdle to overcome.


36 posted on 10/08/2012 7:32:13 AM PDT by Colonel Kangaroo
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Good old scotty... keepeing the race tight and his revenue up.

LLS


37 posted on 10/08/2012 7:34:33 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("If it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: LibLieSlayer

well it is a business....they will all have the polls tight for a while, encourages more spending on them.


38 posted on 10/08/2012 7:35:56 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: Michigander222
Since it's weekend polling, I'm not too worried. (Republicans, conservatives and libertarians tend to be outside living their lives on weekends, and 'rats tend to ... well, do whatever it is that 'rats do indoors. This bumps the Obama numbers on weekends.)
39 posted on 10/08/2012 7:39:06 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Romney had a couple of big days that are rolling off now.

I expect The One to be back in the lead tomorrow.

Ugh!!!


40 posted on 10/08/2012 7:41:09 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: snarkytart
It will be close don’t let anyone tell you other wise. Too many people don’t wanna see the first black president be a one term flop.

No it won't, blowout city as it stands now.

41 posted on 10/08/2012 7:43:38 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: sunmars; All
Obama tries for a debate recovery

A recent Obama rally in the battleground state of Colorado turned into something of a Seinfeldian air.

A scathing video by commentator Trapper that compares Obama to Costanza in a Seinfeld episode.... ..."a debate almost about nothing"...

..and that Obama takes 24 hours to respond....

Front page of Yahoo

42 posted on 10/08/2012 7:45:43 AM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

As I have been saying for years, ALL pollsters have an agenda. I have never seen any sign ever that Ras was a Republican, people keep telling me he is.

I can be objective, it`s not like I am real real excited about Romney...Yes I am all in now for him because he is only alternative, but I still hold the same view I have held for years.

Ras is as much as saying that Romney got no bounce, He shouild be up by 10 in a poll.

Claims that Obama got a bigger bounce out of phony job numbers, he said as much between the lines.,..yes I am a between the lines reader and very good at it :)

CNN has a new poll out today saying Obama is up by 6 with likely voters nation wide...give me a break!!!

What happened to Blitzer saying a “scientific” (that`s what he called it late post debate night)poll showed 35% more likely to vote Romney as apposed to 18% Zero, from undecided voters??

All of a sudden Obama up by 6, leading in areas he should not.

There is no “science” in political polling in 2012 period! Regardless of what the number is.

Anybody that believes in polling needs to have head examined..sorry JMHO

Anybody that thinks we have a friend in Ras or any other pollster is also whacked out


43 posted on 10/08/2012 7:46:54 AM PDT by Friendofgeorge (SARAH PALIN 2012 OR BUST)
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To: sunmars

My thought exactly.

LLS


44 posted on 10/08/2012 7:50:35 AM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("If it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
No one will watch a wipe out. A close race keeps everyone glued to their info-boxes. Media types have a vested interest in making it as close as possible.
45 posted on 10/08/2012 7:54:51 AM PDT by Awgie (truth is always stranger than fiction)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

It could be that the “liar” campaign is working. If you figure that Fox was the only one not promoting it, that means that the vast majority of news watchers over the weekend were being fed the propaganda that Romney was lying about his tax plan.

There is no 5 trillion tax plan, but how would you know that if the “news” is telling you that there is?


46 posted on 10/08/2012 8:03:27 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: albie
The turnout in 2012 is not going to be the same as 2010. It never is. There are always more dems in a presidential election year.
47 posted on 10/08/2012 8:07:48 AM PDT by Dave W
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To: Colonel Kangaroo

And don’t tell me BO won’t manipulate a jobs report right before the election when Repubs have no time to respond. You know he will. Too much is at stake and BO isn’t going to let a little thing like truth stand in his way.


48 posted on 10/08/2012 8:17:30 AM PDT by Proudcongal
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To: SoftwareEngineer

“Ugh! Weekend effect, I suppose”

I went to Rasmussen’s page as linked above.
The results are mixed, no matter how you slice it.

The Senate race in Ohio is still a horse race (neither candidate has broken the 50% mark), but Virginia looks like a goner for George Allen, Kaine is at the 50% level.

Rasmussen shows Romney at 49% in Virginia with a shot at winning, but in Ohio, Obama has hit 50% with Romney trailing at 49% — that doesn’t leave much leverage to turn that contest around, unless we change some “likely Obama voters” into “likely Romney voters”. That’s going to be difficult. Without Ohio, Romney faces a Herculean struggle to amass enough votes to win in the Electoral College.

Florida is Romney 49%, Obama 47%, looks good for us.

I don’t know how old Rasmussen’s poll for Pennsylvania is, but his last-reported numbers were Obama 51%, Romney 39%. I know the race there is tightening, but it looks like Obama’s going to get PA.

This is going to be a bitter struggle to the very end, with lawsuits and claims of fraud which may even delay the final results in some states. I’m sensing this will become the “last-ditch attempt” by the ‘rats to steal the election, a la Al Franken.

Those here on FR who say it’s going to be a landslide — well, better think again. The fact that the election remains so close with a candidate as provenly destructive to the American ideal as is Obama indicates that there is now a huge electoral demographic that will never again support the “traditional American model”.

We are entering an era of bitterly divided politics — a “civil cold war”, if you will.

Still a tough fight ahead...


49 posted on 10/08/2012 8:43:47 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: Michigander222

My personal opinion is that a lot of normally self described Democrats are too ashamed right now to admit it and thy identify themselves as independents.
The result being that they end up way over sampling democrats.
Plus the polls can’t really take into account the enthusiasm gap.
Just my two cents.


50 posted on 10/08/2012 8:48:29 AM PDT by Clump ( the tree of liberty is withering like a stricken fig tree)
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