Skip to comments.Politico/GWU Battleground poll finds 13-point enthusiasm gap favoring GOP
Posted on 10/08/2012 8:16:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Politico warns that Barack Obama has a problem he never saw in 2008 --- and it's getting worse. Mitt Romney's likely voters are much more enthusiastic than his, and these numbers mainly came from polling data collected before Obama laid a debate egg in Denver:
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters shows ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a week ago.
The head-to-head numbers have held remarkably steady through the past three weeks, but theres been a notable shift of intensity from the Democrats to the Republicans since the party conventions over a month ago. Most of the polls calls were made before Romneys strong performance at the first presidential debate in Denver.
Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.
Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. Thats up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.
Intensity seems to be falling across the board among Democratic constituencies. Only 71% of African-Americans and 70% of Latinos consider themselves "extremely likely" to vote, well below the topline of 79%, and only 68% of Obama’s key 2008 demo of young voters feel the same way. By contrast, 82% of white voters consider themselves “extremely likely” to vote, and 77% among seniors. As James Hohmann notes, this means that Romney can do more outreach to the middle, while Obama now has to try to rally his coalition to turn out — and could turn off independents with that effort.
Other internals look bad in the poll. Obama’s firm re-elect number on Q6 is only 46% with just four weeks to go before the election — and again, mostly from before the debate. That’s a low number for an incumbent at this stage of the race, as undecideds usually break hard for the challenger.
That’s even more true when one takes into consideration the sample breakdown in this poll. It has a D/R/I of 38/30/32, for a D+8. That’s more Democratic than 2008′s D+7, which took place in a cycle with much more Democratic enthusiasm than this poll demonstrates. If Obama trails in a D+8 poll by 6 among the extremely likely voters with four weeks to go, he’s in deep trouble — and his debate performance certainly won’t boost him.
three things from this weekend.....
1) Joseph Abboud, the designer, works out in my gym- nice guy....big Red Sox and everything Boston fan....told me he absolutely loves Romney and want him to desperately win...told me Romney will do wonders for the country considering what he had to do in Mass (for better or worse)...said Romney’s tickets for the Red Sox were right next to his and said Romney was the nicest guy in the world...told me he took his sister to a game and left to buy drinks, dogs, etc....upon his return he found Romney and the sister talking away- the sister said “Joe, this nice man just explained baseball to me in the 20 minutes you were away”...Joe said he told his sister- “you know who that is?? that’s the governor of Massachusetts...
2) a Jewish woman from the gym is good friends with Michael Strahan, former All Pro DE with the NY Giants...she told me Strahan told her he feels Romney is one of the classiest politicians of the past 25 years and he can’t wait to vote for him....
3) i live in an uber liberal section of NY; New Castle- 2 miles from the Clintons, 1 mile from RFK Jr...i’m out on my run Saturday morning wearing my “OBAMA MUST GO!” shirt- big broad letters across my shirt...a woman, who turned out to be hispanic, rolls down her window as she’s waiting a the red light and says, in a heavy hispanic accent, “I love your T-shirt!! beat obama!!”...
This is turning ugly. Romney appears to be up 5-7% assuming an election turnout of D+1.
Could it be that you happen to live in a particular area of NYC’s suburbs that is Republican?
I mean I live in Long Island and I know of MANY suburbs here that will never vote for Obama.
I’ll vote against Obama anyway, but I’m not optimistic about the Empire State.
Whether we like it or not, NY will go Obama. Not being pessimistic, just realistic.
not even close....this area is uber liberal....four years ago 8 out of every 10 cars had obama bumper stickers on them; now its one out of every 75....
btw- i’m not even attempting to make the case NY will go for Romney rather pointing out if this is the attitude towards obama in liberal towns what’s it like in those places the media wants us to think are light blue or light red???
I know both parties do their own internal polling that is not released to the public, for obvious reasons.
I’m guessing that Obama knows that there won’t be a second term, barring some miracle of luck, and is just going through the motions at the debates.
Whatever happens, he’s set for life anyway..............
excellent point, thank you... I live in an interesting area of slightly more R than D, but the D is an odd mix of older, traditional democrats and the uber-liberals that moved to the Poconos from NY and NJ. I'm definitely seeing a much lower enthusiasm for Obama around here this time around in both groups of the left. Also, the uber-liberal, radical progressive businessman in our county who provided the free office space to the DemocRat committee for the last several elections has refused this time and he was a huge Obama supporter.
When you have A$$alrod say that the recent polls don’t really matter, which btw they were all gong-ho a few weeks ago with Obumbler leading, SPEAKS volumes...THEY ARE SWEATING!! GOD is our SOURCE! Stay STRONG my friends... ON TO VICTORY!
the other thing i am really starting to notice about liberals and obama supporters, specifically those on Facebook who i don’t back down to, is their attitudes have transitioned from “re-elect obama” to “Romney sucks” and now its “they both suck”....
had that happen twice this weekend with formerly staunch obama supporters who will still probably vote for obozo but are now admitting their beloved leader sucks...
Love hearing about your experiences! I’m in deep blue Minnesota and the 0bama bumperstickers are not to be found. Not much enthusiasm for the 0ne, even here. It’s encouraging, but I won’t stop holding my breath until after election day.
Lighten up Seekie. We would not have known those friendly Romney stories from God luvs America if he hadn’t written. I love stories like that. It also helps people in other states with their excitment to vote for Romney. So lighten up, we are going to win this one.
The most I would do is +2-3%. So in reality, Romney has to be up about 4-5% more.
what page is D+8 on?