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Skip to comments.Politico/GWU Battleground poll finds 13-point enthusiasm gap favoring GOP
Posted on 10/08/2012 8:20:21 AM PDT by RobinMasters
Politico warns that Barack Obama has a problem he never saw in 2008 and its getting worse. Mitt Romneys likely voters are much more enthusiastic than his, and these numbers mainly came from polling data collected before Obama laid a debate egg in Denver:
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters shows ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a week ago.
The head-to-head numbers have held remarkably steady through the past three weeks, but theres been a notable shift of intensity from the Democrats to the Republicans since the party conventions over a month ago. Most of the polls calls were made before Romneys strong performance at the first presidential debate in Denver.
Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.
Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. Thats up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
Date: January 20, 2013, Inauguration Day
Chief Justice John Roberts : Governor are you prepared to take the Constitutional Oath.
Romney : I am.
Chief Justice John Roberts : Would you place your left hand on the bay of the Bible and raise your right hand and repeat after me : I, Willard Mitt Romney, do solemnly swear.
Romney : I, Willard Mitt Romney, do solemnly swear.
Chief Justice John Roberts : That I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States.
Romney : That I will faithfully execute the office of President of the United States.
Chief Justice John Roberts : And will to the best of my ability.
Romney : And will to the best of my ability.
Chief Justice John Roberts : Preserve, protect and defend.
Romney : Preserve, protect and defend.
Chief Justice John Roberts : The Constitution of the United States.
Romney : The Constitution of the United States.
Chief Justice John Roberts : So help you God.
Romney : So help me God.
Chief Justice John Roberts : Now Congratulations Mr. President
The President of the United States
Warmup for Nov 6.
What will be even more delicious will be watching Obama’s face while the oath is given. Michelle Obama’s face will be even more amusing. I live for this scene.
Chick-Fil-A was just a proxy for voting against the heterophobe on November 6th.
i posted this in the other thread on this topic:
three things from this weekend.....
1) Joseph Abboud, the designer, works out in my gym- nice guy....big Red Sox and everything Boston fan....told me he absolutely loves Romney and want him to desperately win...told me Romney will do wonders for the country considering what he had to do in Mass (for better or worse)...said Romneys tickets for the Red Sox were right next to his and said Romney was the nicest guy in the world...told me he took his sister to a game and left to buy drinks, dogs, etc....upon his return he found Romney and the sister talking away- the sister said Joe, this nice man just explained baseball to me in the 20 minutes you were away...Joe said he told his sister- you know who that is?? thats the governor of Massachusetts...
2) a Jewish woman from the gym is good friends with Michael Strahan, former All Pro DE with the NY Giants...she told me Strahan told her he feels Romney is one of the classiest politicians of the past 25 years and he cant wait to vote for him....
3) i live in an uber liberal section of NY; New Castle- 2 miles from the Clintons, 1 mile from RFK Jr...im out on my run Saturday morning wearing my OBAMA MUST GO! shirt- big broad letters across my shirt...a woman, who turned out to be hispanic, rolls down her window as shes waiting a the red light and says, in a heavy hispanic accent, I love your T-shirt!! beat obama!!...
The internals are brutal for Obama, if its correct, Obama cnnot win in Nov, those numbers are against him in every single way.
So would I be wrong in saying that the polls should be oversampling R +13? Why are they still oversampling D??
But do they factor in street money?
Wow! Love this!!
That is not correct.
Enthusiasm is a very imprecise measure of turnout. Many who are not enthusiastic will still turn out to vote for the Kenyan.
I expect the RATs will have a slight turnout advantage in November, which will make the results very close. If they do not, and the GOP runs even or better, it will be a Republican blowout.
In 2008 it was D +26.....so its a 39% swing. Stunning how the MSM can still oversample Dems....
Dim voters don't have to be enthusiastic, they simply show up for their share of the "street money". I have to say, however, that this much of a gap is not going to be overcome by normal levels of Dim cheating.
I don’t get too worked up over enthusiasm numbers in a presidential year. Generally the sophisticated campaigns will get their people to the polls whether they want to go or not. But when the enthusiasm gap is big enough it’s enough to move the result a point or two, which is a big deal.
The Dems in particular are adept at the “knock and drag” get out the vote routine.
I would like to hear from others on this
I think anecdotal information is actually very important.
I think the Joseph Abboud data point is profound.
I have a feeling the internal polls of both candidates show Romney winning a decisive victory in November. That would explain why Romney was so fired up and Obama was so tepid during the debate. Obama, being lazy to start with, figured there was no reason to bust ass getting ready when he already knows his fate.
I was looking at the candidates for indicators of enthusiasm during the debate.
I believe the internal polls are bleak for Obama despite being outclassed he gave the impression to that he knows he has already lost the election he looked to me like a beaten man during the debate.
Romney on the other hand Looked like a man who knew he already won, energetic, confident and I might even say happy.
With the election just a month away people in the know already know who is going to win and I believe it is now just down to where it is either a modest win or a Reagan like landslide.
*******The internals are brutal for Obama, if its correct, Obama cnnot win in Nov, those numbers are against him in every single way.
I have a feeling the internal polls of both candidates show Romney winning a decisive victory in November. That would explain why Romney was so fired up and Obama was so tepid during the debate. Obama, being lazy to start with, figured there was no reason to bust ass getting ready when he already knows his fate.********
Great minds think alike ;)
And we see this in the OH (and now, FL) early/absentee voting stats. Rs HUGELY up in most counties, Ds significanly down.