Posted on 10/08/2012 1:14:56 PM PDT by Arthurio
Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.
Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.
In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.
The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at people-press.org ...
If it was...I suppose it means they don't weight their sample to any turn out model, but just place great faith in the randomness of their sampling methods...which seems a rather reckless assumption to me.
Either way, I am dubious of this poll, though I do think Romney will win and it will not be particularly close.
R +2.75 (Dem 32.5, Rep 35.25, Ind 29.5). But, hey, Gallup says Party ID is not relevant.
In rounds two and three Myth will be wrung out like a shamwell.. There will be so many convoluted lies and half-truths even Myth Romney will not be able to absorb them all..
How many times can you say “Thats not true?”.. before it looks like an EXCUSE.. and a skimpy one at that.. Most of the Townhall audience and half of the TV audience could care less about facts.. They wouldn’t know a fact if they tripped over it.. anyway..
Is America that dumb?.. YES.. mostly the ones under thirty years old.. but many 40 and 50 year olds are droolers as well..
LOL a “slight” four point lead among the likeliest voters.
Huge lead late in the game. This is playing out as it should. Country sick of Obama, needed to see if Romnney is a viable alternative.
Seems unlikely Obama will win a debate by the wide margin Romney earned. I do wonder how the Ryan-Biden thing will come out. Should be facinating.
Yeah, but this is the split we are seeing in the OH early voting numbers. Probably the same in FL.
RE: R +2.75
Now they’re changing the sampling. For the longest time Pew have Democrats with the sampling advantage. Why the sudden change?
As Clint noted, the Empty Chair improved by codetoad:
ROMNEY LOST THE DEBATE! OBAMA IS IN CONTROL!
It is past time to fire Barack, his empty chair and empty promises and have all of them hit the road back to Chicago!
So hit the road Barack and take your empty chair, empty suit and empty promises with you!
Better take Wolf Blitzer’s tie and belt away from him before he says “goodbye, cruel world.”
Is Pew preparing for Obama’s next big comeback poll?
I dont trust ANY Poll, except for Rasmussen..just pretend Romney is down 10 and he needs every vote, because he will, the voter fraud on Election Day is going to be insane. Just like how Chavez won last night, the Dems will send out SEIU to “count” the votes
That’s almost the exact party id split that Rasmussen has (2.6) - but is oddly using D+3 in his polls.
He must figure inner-city voter fraud in swing states is worth a good 5 1/2% for Democrats—and he’s probably right.
If any “undecided” women were still watching at the end when Romney hugged the first of his sons that went up on the stage, they turned. My wife was ecstatic when she saw that.
The contrast between the Romney family on the stage and the sourpuss on the face of Mrs. Obama was stunning
This makes much more sense. Rasmussen’s tie, wiping out Romney’s 2 pt advantage, makes no sense at all.
Bull crap. HOW MANY DEMOCRATS were oversampled to get Romney to a mere 4% lead? HOW MANY?
There was an article -- by a pollster -- posted on Free Republic a few days ago.
He explained that pollsters do NOT weight for party ID. However, they do weight for the usual demographics -- race, gender, income, age, education, etc. And that, for some reason, the demographic weighting is inflating the number of white Democrats in the sample.
Presumably, that is a function of it becoming increasingly difficult to poll white Republicans -- who are more likely to be unresponsive to unknown callers.
Unlike 0bama, I think Romney would know how to pick the battle: he’s not going to say “It’s not true” at every lie that 0bama says. In any case, if he simply provides the correct facts, it won’t be easy for 0bama to keep the lies.
That's gonna leave a mark.
A 12 Point Swing?
0bama will be lucky to hold at 45%. I continue to predict a 45% / 55% outcome, as I have since early August, I think. All those preliminary polls were fixed, and at the end of the day, Americans will enter the polling booth asking themselves one question: Do I want four more years of THIS? And the answer will be "NO!"
My personal opinion is that Rasmussen is hedging his bets.
His party id split is R+2.6. But his polling sample is D+3. That’s a 6 point swing.
In the past he has always stayed close to the his party affiliation. In 2008 for example it was D+6 and he used D+6 sample - and he was pretty much dead on.
Back to opinion... I think he is being conservative, and will change sample as election gets closer, probably D+1-2.
Meanwhile everyone else (other than this Pew) is using D+3-6 and so Rasmussen will be the closest again. (He doesn’t want to go out too far on limb).
Romney is going to win by 4-6 points, IMO.
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