Skip to comments.Pew poll: Romney erases eight-point deficit, now leads by four among likely voters
Posted on 10/08/2012 2:07:16 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
From a 51/43 lead for O last month to a 49/45 lead for Mitt now. Remember when the media said the debates wont matter?
Most exciting poll of the last year? Or most exciting poll of the last four years?
Romney now ties Obama in being regarded as a strong leader and runs virtually even with the president in willingness to work with leaders of the other party. And by a 47% to 40% margin, voters pick Romney as the candidate who has new ideas
Romney has made progress on the issues. He and Obama now run about even on dealing with health care, Medicare, foreign policy and taxes. Obama led on most of these issues by significant margins in September. Romney also holds a significant 49% to 41% advantage on improving the job situation, despite the fact that most of the interviewing was conducted after the October jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate falling below 8%
By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin.
Weve come a long, long way when the avatar of Hopenchange is a distant second on the question of which candidate represents new ideas. The polling on jobs is significant too, not only on its own terms but because some of this data was compiled over the weekend, after the news about Fridays good unemployment numbers broke. In fact, among swing voters, 54 percent now say they agree with the statement Obama doesnt know how to turn the economy around versus just 39 percent who disagree. If O cant put a dent in that this month, hes in trouble, especially since those numbers partly reflect a good jobs report.
Some of Mitts improvement here is mind-boggling. Note the amazing shift in women and voters aged 18-49, in particular:
Romneys favorable rating is now at 50 percent, up five points since last month and one point higher than the guy whos banking on his alleged likability gap to push him over the edge in a close race. In fact, Mitt rates higher than O even though swing voters are far more likely to say that Obama connects well with ordinary Americans. Evidently, Romney cut so impressive a figure at the debate that voters like him slightly more than Obama notwithstanding the fabled whod you rather have a beer with? test.
The one caveat here is the sample. Among registered voters, its 34.7R/34D/31.3I; among likelies, its probably a few points more Republican than that. Romneys pollster and Scott Rasmussen have each said theyre expecting a sample of D+3 or so on election day, so this is a rare poll thats actually a bit redder than it should be although even thats a testament to Romneys debate performance. Party ID tends to shift a bit as each side builds momentum; thats why the samples after the Democratic convention were a little bluer than usual. Whats happening here, I think, is that some chunk of the audience that watched the debate was sufficiently impressed by Mitt that theyre now identifying as Republican this week. If Ryan does well on Thursday and Romney follows through in his last two debates, maybe that identification will solidify and well get a redder turnout on November 6 than even Team Mitt is expecting. At the very least, perennial Republicans are so energized by Romneys ass-kicking that they may show up in even greater numbers than expected. Check out the fundraising haul Mitt saw the first 48 hours after the Denver debacle. Good lord.
So, why is Pew suddenly sampling more Republicans the Democrats now when they were doing the opposite just over a week before?
It’s good to see these type of results, but despite the better results, it only serves to highlight a more fundamental problem in our country. That even 40% of Americans believe 0bama is doing anything to promote the interests and prosperity of the American people is astounding. That over 40% of Americans don’t seem to care that he is an America-hating, racist narcissistic communist dictator wanna-be who is bought and paid for by the Chinese tells me that we are in serious trouble as a country.
You have to love the media with this poll. The hacks who ignored D+8, D+10, D+13 samples all summer/fall, all of a sudden are pointing out the sample.
The clowns who mocked/called us #PollTruthers are now whining about samples. Too funny!
To set up for polling AFTER the next debate, which will show Obama up by 5 (with +10D again)...
yep. Screw this poll. We ought to pretend like we’re two down and there are two outs in the bottom of the ninth.
First, pray. And pray hard.
Second, give. Give money to the effort.
Third, volunteer. Make calls from home or go and walk a precinct or make calls from a GOP GOTV center.
Fourth, pray. And pray hard.
0Zero will not stand for this. Now he will need to implement plan y, call someone and threaten them and by tomorrow PEW will make a statement that there was an error and the numbers favor 0Zero. It’s all out war with no rules. This man will do anything possible to keep power.
What group of MORONS ever thought OBAMA was a strong leader. I know, THE PHONE RECIPIENTS
More republicans are answering phone and identifying as such than democrats. Apparently, after the debate its okay to be a republican again.
“Romneys pollster and Scott Rasmussen have each said theyre expecting a sample of D+3 or so on election day...”
Shouldn’t that be at least R+3?
I doubt very seriously Rasmussen said this.
How are the RATS going to outvote us?
The debate results have been wonderful, but it’s important to remember that the debate was not a typical political debate.
If Wednesday’s debate had been normal, Mitt Romney would have been continually accosted by a panel of snooty liberal moderators whose every question had been prepared to make him look as bad as possible, while making Obama look like the Messiah he thinks he is.
Every question to Obama would have been on the order of ‘’What do you think your greatest achievement has been as president?’’ while every question to Romney would have been a variation on ‘’Is it true that while you were at Bain Capital you caused the death of a woman?’’
This is what the Romney/Ryan team should be expecting from now on, starting with Thursday’s vice-presidential debate.
In the first debate, Jim Lehrer served the same function for Mitt Romney as the Fairy Godmother did for Cinderella — for ninety minutes Mitt was allowed out of the dark basement where the evil stepsisters of the liberal media had kept him hidden from the public, and he was able to win the hearts of many Americans.
But at the next debates, the evil stepsisters will be fully in charge, so Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan had better be prepared for the worst.