Posted on 10/08/2012 3:51:52 PM PDT by NoobRep
Just in.
The Susquehanna Poll (from the Susquehanna Polling and Research folks ) have just released their post-debate poll of Pennsylvania.
Bottom line: Romney is suddenly surging, with Obama leading by a mere two points -- which is to say a "virtual dead heat."
Concludes the poll: There is (my emphasis) "clear evidence the debates have helped solidify the Keystone State as a tossup election in November and one well within Romney's reach."
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
This is the most important part of the poll I am interested in -— SAMPLING.
Are you registered to vote as a Republican, Democrat, Independent or something else?
1. Republican 305 42%
2. Democrat 348 48%
3. Independent/other 72 10%
Here, we have a D+6 sampling. Is this a fair estimate of voters in Pennsylvania?
Also, this is very revealing:
Do you consider yourself to be conservative or liberal when thinking about politics?
1. Conservative 330 46%
2. Liberal 183 25%
3. Moderate 179 25%
4. Other/undecided 32 04%
If 46% of the sample are Conservative and Romney gets 45% of the survey, that would mean 1% of conservatives are undecided.
It also means a huge portion of moderates are going with Obama ( might as well call them liberals ).
Here’s one part of the poll internals we need to parse:
Which of the following best describes the way you voted in the last general election - straight Republican, mostly Republican, a few more Republicans than Democrats, about equal, a few more Democrats than Republicans, mostly Democrat or straight Democrat? (ONE ANSWER ONLY)
1. Straight Republican 96 13%
2. Mostly Republican 137 19%
3. More R’s than D’s 54 07%
4. About equal 109 15%
5. More D’s than R’s 46 06%
6. Mostly Democrat 106 15%
7. Straight Democrat 157 22%
8. Undecided/Not applicable 19 03%
************
Total Republican: 32%
Total Democrat: 37%
Total Swing: 28%
Bump
“Subject is wrong, it’s 47-45.
And Gary Johnson is getting 3%. I heard a radio ad for him last week. I don’t think I’ve heard a Romney or Obama ad yet.”
Considering the last poll I saw posted by Rasmussen, this is good news, but Romney still has a roe to hoe to win PA.
If Johnson continues to pull 3% of the vote come election day, neither Obama or Romney may be able to win by a majority. Let’s work some numbers...
With 3% “stolen” by Johnson, that leaves only 5% in the “undecided” category at the moment.
Let’s suppose that tradition rules, and that 5% breaks about 2 to 1 for Romney, giving Romney an additional 3.3% and Obama about 1.7%.
That leaves us with Obama 48.7% and Romney with 48.5%.
If some of the Johnson voters change their mind, and go to Romney, he could squeak out a victory.
If Romney can gain just one more point “up”, and Obama holds steady, Mitt may actually pull this one off. Right now, just too unpredictable to call….
That's "a row to hoe" as in a row of corn...in the garden.
You're making him hoe fish eggs, or a return on equity.
.
LIBERAL REPORTER #1:
Governor Romney do you play golf?
GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY:
“I did a few times when I was in high school - but that was before I was actively in business.”
LIBERAL REPORTER #1:
“That’s racist!”
LIBERAL REPORTER #2:
Governor Romney did you ever use drugs?
GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY:
“No.”
LIBERAL REPORTER #2:
“That’s pretty racist!”
LIBERAL REPORTER #3:
Governor Romney did you ever play basketball?
GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY:
“Yes - With my sons and grandchildren on family gatherings.”
LIBERAL REPORTER #3:
“That’s incredibly racist!”
.
True but are there enough to erase the Gimme voters in Philly.....that’s the problem.
I concur.
The rural areas are solidly for Romney. They elected Corbett, a Republican for Governor.
Ohio finally changed it's Democrat status over the years by discovering the rural vote was Republican as well. Cincinnati has been Republican for forever. The bad news, like Philly, Cleveland has been dimrat for eons and has always been the giant hill of votes that the Republicans have to overcome.
Over the years as Cleveland's rust belt status and horibble Mayors have slowly killed the city and eroded away the jobs, population, and votes, the tipping point has been determined more and more by the turnout in Columbus, which is generally ever so slightly Democrat. If Ohio keeps it close there, then the rural areas carry the state towards the Republicans.
It is my most fervent wish that Pennsylvania has also found some formula of sorts, like Ohio, to finally counter Philidelphia's dominance through out the state.
“The rural areas are solidly for Romney.”
Yeah; they’re real people and don’t want someone taking away their guns, messing with the way they worship, and they need jobs — including those in the coal industry. Romney’s the only guy who can deliver. Too many “takers” in Philly, though, same as in other big cities.
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