Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Romney Surging in PA (O 47 R 45)
American Spectator ^ | 10/8/12 | American Spectator

Posted on 10/08/2012 3:51:52 PM PDT by NoobRep

Just in.

The Susquehanna Poll (from the Susquehanna Polling and Research folks ) have just released their post-debate poll of Pennsylvania.

Bottom line: Romney is suddenly surging, with Obama leading by a mere two points -- which is to say a "virtual dead heat."

Concludes the poll: There is (my emphasis) "clear evidence the debates have helped solidify the Keystone State as a tossup election in November and one well within Romney's reach."

(Excerpt) Read more at ...

TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; obama; pa2012; paelection; pennsylvania; romney; swingstates
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-31 last
To: NoobRep

This is the most important part of the poll I am interested in -— SAMPLING.

Are you registered to vote as a Republican, Democrat, Independent or something else?

1. Republican 305 42%
2. Democrat 348 48%
3. Independent/other 72 10%

Here, we have a D+6 sampling. Is this a fair estimate of voters in Pennsylvania?

Also, this is very revealing:

Do you consider yourself to be conservative or liberal when thinking about politics?

1. Conservative 330 46%
2. Liberal 183 25%
3. Moderate 179 25%
4. Other/undecided 32 04%

If 46% of the sample are Conservative and Romney gets 45% of the survey, that would mean 1% of conservatives are undecided.

It also means a huge portion of moderates are going with Obama ( might as well call them liberals ).

21 posted on 10/08/2012 8:46:46 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jet Jaguar

Here’s one part of the poll internals we need to parse:

Which of the following best describes the way you voted in the last general election - straight Republican, mostly Republican, a few more Republicans than Democrats, about equal, a few more Democrats than Republicans, mostly Democrat or straight Democrat? (ONE ANSWER ONLY)

1. Straight Republican 96 13%
2. Mostly Republican 137 19%
3. More R’s than D’s 54 07%
4. About equal 109 15%
5. More D’s than R’s 46 06%
6. Mostly Democrat 106 15%
7. Straight Democrat 157 22%
8. Undecided/Not applicable 19 03%


Total Republican: 32%
Total Democrat: 37%

Total Swing: 28%

22 posted on 10/08/2012 8:49:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind


23 posted on 10/08/2012 8:52:52 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: JediJones

“Subject is wrong, it’s 47-45.
And Gary Johnson is getting 3%. I heard a radio ad for him last week. I don’t think I’ve heard a Romney or Obama ad yet.”

Considering the last poll I saw posted by Rasmussen, this is good news, but Romney still has a roe to hoe to win PA.

If Johnson continues to pull 3% of the vote come election day, neither Obama or Romney may be able to win by a majority. Let’s work some numbers...

With 3% “stolen” by Johnson, that leaves only 5% in the “undecided” category at the moment.

Let’s suppose that tradition rules, and that 5% breaks about 2 to 1 for Romney, giving Romney an additional 3.3% and Obama about 1.7%.

That leaves us with Obama 48.7% and Romney with 48.5%.

If some of the Johnson voters change their mind, and go to Romney, he could squeak out a victory.

If Romney can gain just one more point “up”, and Obama holds steady, Mitt may actually pull this one off. Right now, just too unpredictable to call….

24 posted on 10/08/2012 9:03:44 PM PDT by Road Glide
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Road Glide
Romney still has a roe to hoe

That's "a row to hoe" as in a row of the garden.

You're making him hoe fish eggs, or a return on equity.

25 posted on 10/08/2012 9:07:43 PM PDT by ROCKLOBSTER (Celebrate "Republicans Freed the Slaves" Month)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: NoobRep


Governor Romney do you play golf?

“I did a few times when I was in high school - but that was before I was actively in business.”

“That’s racist!”

Governor Romney did you ever use drugs?


“That’s pretty racist!”

Governor Romney did you ever play basketball?

“Yes - With my sons and grandchildren on family gatherings.”

“That’s incredibly racist!”


26 posted on 10/09/2012 4:42:04 AM PDT by devolve (----- ------- ------------c.1000_and_c.1620-------- ----------------------------)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: FreedBird

True but are there enough to erase the Gimme voters in Philly.....that’s the problem.

27 posted on 10/09/2012 6:22:38 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: oldplayer
False Flag. Romney, don’t spend a dollar in Pennsylvania. Your heart will just be broken.

I concur.

28 posted on 10/09/2012 6:26:04 AM PDT by workerbee (The President of the United States is DOMESTIC ENEMY #1)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: thingumbob

The rural areas are solidly for Romney. They elected Corbett, a Republican for Governor.

29 posted on 10/10/2012 4:40:53 AM PDT by FreedBird
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: FreedBird
Then I'm looking forward to seeing what happens on Election night in Pennsylvania.....

Ohio finally changed it's Democrat status over the years by discovering the rural vote was Republican as well. Cincinnati has been Republican for forever. The bad news, like Philly, Cleveland has been dimrat for eons and has always been the giant hill of votes that the Republicans have to overcome.

Over the years as Cleveland's rust belt status and horibble Mayors have slowly killed the city and eroded away the jobs, population, and votes, the tipping point has been determined more and more by the turnout in Columbus, which is generally ever so slightly Democrat. If Ohio keeps it close there, then the rural areas carry the state towards the Republicans.

It is my most fervent wish that Pennsylvania has also found some formula of sorts, like Ohio, to finally counter Philidelphia's dominance through out the state.

30 posted on 10/10/2012 9:26:31 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: FreedBird

“The rural areas are solidly for Romney.”

Yeah; they’re real people and don’t want someone taking away their guns, messing with the way they worship, and they need jobs — including those in the coal industry. Romney’s the only guy who can deliver. Too many “takers” in Philly, though, same as in other big cities.

31 posted on 10/10/2012 9:37:17 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-31 last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794 is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson