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Rasmussen Daily Tracking: TUE: 10/09: R:48% O:48% Obama -13%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/09/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 10/09/2012 6:53:29 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

Romney’s support is a bit more solid than the president’s at this point in time. Forty-five percent (45%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their minds. Forty-one percent (41%) are certain they will vote for Obama.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; rasmussen; romney
Republicans had a "bad weekend" specifically on Rasmussen. ALL of his polls yesterday were down on Republicans. Even the generic congressional poll swung 5 points away from the Republicans
1 posted on 10/09/2012 6:53:34 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer
IMPORTANT CHANGE TODAY (as per RASMUSSEN)

Our daily Swing State update is released at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. Today’s results will show Romney slightly ahead in the 11 key swing states. This is a significant change. For virtually the entire campaign, Obama has done better in the swing states than in the national averages. It remains to be seen whether this is a lasting change in the race or merely a temporary aberration
2 posted on 10/09/2012 6:56:34 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

That is because he is using a D+5 sample now.


3 posted on 10/09/2012 6:57:25 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

From the article:

“Post-debate polling shows that Romney and the president are within two points of each other in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Iowa and Colorado. All remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. New data from Nevada will be released at noon Eastern today.”

I think if I were a campaign professional on the obamugabe campaign, I’d feel sort of sick right now. Especially after only two weeks ago (not to mention three and four weeks ago...), the media had told me it was “over over over”.

To quote Rocky Balboa, “it ain’t over til it’s over.”


4 posted on 10/09/2012 6:57:34 AM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Republicans always have bad weekends. Just wait until Thursday or Friday to get a good sense of the polls.


5 posted on 10/09/2012 6:58:18 AM PDT by kara37
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The killer number....only 41% certain to vote for Obama, that makes his run to 50% virtually impossible...the incumbent underwater at 41%


6 posted on 10/09/2012 6:59:53 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: SoftwareEngineer

We will every single one of the close ones on turnout. There is no way in hell that the other side is going to out crawl us to the polls this election. No way in hell! We will be outside the MOC (margin of cheating) too.


7 posted on 10/09/2012 7:01:07 AM PDT by MrDem (Founder: Democrats for Cheney/Palin 2012)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

So how can you say this was bad polling for the GOP in one breath, then post that the new Ras poll has Romney ahead in the swing states for the first time?

I think both polls are good - Romney has firmer support 45-41.

The debate not only elevated Romney it turned people off of Obama. Perfect!


8 posted on 10/09/2012 7:02:08 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: SoftwareEngineer

One of the nice things about having a race this close is that the communist DemocRATS are going to have to be extremely blatant with their voter fraud. Most of it will become very obvious.


9 posted on 10/09/2012 7:03:55 AM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Sorry Algore. It was attitude, NOT altitude.)
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To: kara37

Yeah I think we’ll see Romney up a point or two by Thurs or Fri.


10 posted on 10/09/2012 7:03:58 AM PDT by over3Owithabrain
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To: SoftwareEngineer

So, what’s with the 4%? When are they going to decide and historically, for whom do most of them break to?


11 posted on 10/09/2012 7:04:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Still includes two weekend days. (And what a marvelous weekend it was to be outside!)

Further down in report, and notwithstanding the weekend polling bias against conservatives: "A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 49% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty percent (50%) at least somewhat disapprove (see trends)."

If half of voters disapprove of the job Zero is doing, will they vote for him? I think he's in a lot more trouble than the 'rats ever expected.

12 posted on 10/09/2012 7:04:12 AM PDT by Sooth2222 ("Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a member of congress. But I repeat myself." M.Twain)
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To: sunmars

This time 4 years ago 0bama had a 6 point lead on McCain.


13 posted on 10/09/2012 7:04:49 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

His dynamic sampling model should begin to shift in our favor. I was told that it is a 21-day model. So if it goes down to D+3 or D+2, it will help. Romney still, in poll after poll, seems to win Independents.


14 posted on 10/09/2012 7:04:57 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The best part is that we win Ohio by 20,000 votes and Obama wins Kalifornia by 6.5 million.... Those even percentages are wasted on CA, NY, MA, etc. Fly over country will be a Romney blowout.


15 posted on 10/09/2012 7:18:57 AM PDT by Jumper
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To: SoftwareEngineer
President Obama each attracting support from 48% ,

Obama has not been able to close the deal.

16 posted on 10/09/2012 7:19:06 AM PDT by Raycpa
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To: Perdogg

Are you sure? I thought it was D+3?


17 posted on 10/09/2012 7:30:01 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The day before the Election expect to see Obama over Romney 55% to 45%, with a 30% margin of error of course...


18 posted on 10/09/2012 7:30:24 AM PDT by GraceG
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To: SoftwareEngineer

SWING STATE POLL RELEASED! ROMNEY +2

Tuesday, October 09, 2012

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

Platinum Members have access to detailed demographic information.

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.

Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now “certain” they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are certain they will vote for the president.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.


19 posted on 10/09/2012 7:37:21 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: Perdogg

Good. I’m glad he’s using D+5. That’s the absolute best turnout the Dems can hope for and Romney’s still tired. Romney should be planning for th worst case scenario as should we.


20 posted on 10/09/2012 7:39:05 AM PDT by Jake8898
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To: MrChips

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.

Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now “certain” they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are certain they will vote for the president.

In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.

Certain to vote for Obama....40%...he’s screwed.


21 posted on 10/09/2012 7:40:03 AM PDT by sunmars
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To: MrChips

Romney is going to win - end of story. I really believe that. There is no way the electorate will be similar to 2008 - Republicans will AT LEAST equal dems or be within a point and Romney is winning independents in nearly every poll I’ve seen, even the skewed, democratic ones. So..

95% of Republicans + 10% of Democrats + 55% of Independents

VS

5% of Republicans + 90% of Democrats + 45% of Independents

With an electorate that is:
36% Democrat
34% Republican
30% Independent

Do the math. Romney wins.


22 posted on 10/09/2012 7:47:43 AM PDT by NY4Romney
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To: ConservativeDude
To quote Rocky Balboa, “it ain’t over til it’s over.”

it ain't over till Barbra Streisand sings...

23 posted on 10/09/2012 7:49:06 AM PDT by latina4dubya ( self-proclaimed tequila snob)
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To: NY4Romney
Interesting numbers.

Does that show that Romney will at least win by 5% as a buffer against the fraudulent votes?

ACORN and various other Obama/ChicagoMobMachine/Rahm/Soros&ChavezCountingTheVotes etc...can all of that be countered with enough votes?

The GOP doesn't fight against any of that, and in fact courts the illegal immigrant alien criminal insurgent colonist voters which will virtually all vote for the Obama as he is paying them and the welfare/food stamp crowd to do so.

24 posted on 10/09/2012 7:59:13 AM PDT by Syncro (The Tea Party is Dead!--MSM/Dems LONG LIVE THE TEA PARTY!)
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To: NY4Romney

Thanks. Did you calculate it?


25 posted on 10/09/2012 8:09:22 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: Syncro
The GOP doesn't fight against any of thatI think you will find several Republican governors in swing states who have purged hundreds of thousands of fraudulent voters from the rolls since '08.
26 posted on 10/09/2012 8:12:05 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

“SWING STATE POLL RELEASED! ROMNEY +2”

That number, by itself, means nothing.

What DOES “mean something” are the numbers in each of the battleground states.

Look at Rasmussen’s updated electoral map here:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

State by state, Romney leads in Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida.

Obama leads in Ohio (has reached 50% mark), Michigan (54%), Wisconsin (49%), Iowa (49%), Colorado (49%), New Mexico (51%), and Nevada (47%, but Romney close behind @ 45%).

Note: Rasmussen’s numbers for Pennsylvania look dated (he had Obama @ 51% in his last survey). Since then, PA looks a little better for Romney, but Obama still leads there.

Although things look good for Mr. Romney in the critical states of Florida and Virginia, without Ohio he has to find at least 18 more electoral votes from the other battleground states. Right now, looks like all he’s getting is four from New Hampshire.

The combination of Wisconsin and Colorado would put Romney over the top, but he needs both to make it and right now it looks unlikely that he’s going to get them. If Romney could edge out Obama in Pennsylvania, he could make it without WI and CO.

This is going to be a bitter fight to the end.


27 posted on 10/09/2012 8:14:20 AM PDT by Road Glide
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To: latina4dubya

“it ain’t over till Barbra Streisand sings...”

I guess she has put on a little weight. Hahaha


28 posted on 10/09/2012 9:31:39 AM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

It is 48-46 without leaders. Romney is doing better. And a big Romney night rolled off (Friday night, where R went from 2 down to 2 ahead), so last night must have been good for him as well.


29 posted on 10/09/2012 9:32:40 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Perdogg

Using ‘04 and ‘00 models.


30 posted on 10/09/2012 9:49:05 AM PDT by 1L
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To: Syncro

>>ACORN and various other Obama/ChicagoMobMachine/Rahm/Soros&ChavezCountingTheVotes etc...can all of that be countered with enough votes?<<

They can’t do it in as many places as they used to be able to.


31 posted on 10/09/2012 9:51:24 AM PDT by 1L
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To: MrChips

Yes, and that is excellent.

I was referring to the GOP on the national level, the big boys behind the curtain that won’t do something on a massive level against voter fraud.


32 posted on 10/09/2012 9:54:44 AM PDT by Syncro (The Tea Party is Dead!--MSM/Dems LONG LIVE THE TEA PARTY!)
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To: 1L
Really?

Since ACORN was shut down and gently reprimanded for their illegal activities, they have opened up shop in virtually every state under different names.

Stronger than ever, and ignored by the GOP.

Don't underestimate Obama and his thugs or count on the GOP to fight them.

33 posted on 10/09/2012 9:59:21 AM PDT by Syncro (The Tea Party is Dead!--MSM/Dems LONG LIVE THE TEA PARTY!)
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To: Road Glide

Romney will win Ohio.


34 posted on 10/09/2012 10:08:39 AM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: 1L
Plus Soros owns the voting machines in 27 states, and Hugo Chavez (It was just discovered) is involved in voter fraud here---Newly elected (again) as president of Venezuela (and congratulated by Obama)
35 posted on 10/09/2012 10:14:01 AM PDT by Syncro (The Tea Party is Dead!--MSM/Dems LONG LIVE THE TEA PARTY!)
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To: KC_Conspirator

Yes, he is using D+5. I used linear algebra to reverse-engineer the ratios on Sunday, and confirmed them in a post yesterday.

See here for the math. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2941780/posts?page=73#73


36 posted on 10/09/2012 11:41:12 AM PDT by Cruising For Freedom (Don't be the proof that MSM PsyOps works.)
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To: NY4Romney

That would make it 54.4% for Romney. Even if Dems got 95% of their own, it would still be 50.6% Romney. And the Indy percentage (55) may be a cautiously low estimate.


37 posted on 10/09/2012 12:31:29 PM PDT by rfp1234
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To: Cruising For Freedom

Thank you. That is totally interesting. Honestly, using the historical and analytical data, one would have to guess that it would have to be around D+3, even though it points to a more even turnout.


38 posted on 10/09/2012 12:51:44 PM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: SoftwareEngineer

The reason Obama does so well in national polls would be his huge margins in NY, CA, MD, DE, MA, IL, WA, etc.


39 posted on 10/09/2012 3:25:40 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Annoy the Establishment! Vote for Akin!)
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