Skip to comments.Rasmussen Swing State Daily: R: 49% O:47%: HUGE SHIFT!
Posted on 10/09/2012 7:40:27 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obamas 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.
This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romneys debate win last Wednesday night.
Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now certain they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are certain they will vote for the president.
In 2008, Obama won these states by a combined margin of 53% to 46%, virtually identical to his national margin.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
This only covers the swing states. Team RR is close to the magic 50% mark
Add 5% to Romney for turnout and it is President Romney.
What makes this even more impressive is the fact that Michigan and Pennsylvania are included in this group.
After the VP debate and the next Potus debate New Jersey, Minnesota, Oregon, & connecticut could be included in this.
Since even late night TV feels free to ridicule Obama’s debate fiasco, it is now politically acceptable to be against Obama in the polls.
He’s no longer “made” anymore.
3% undecided is getting pretty small. People are starting to make their decisions. I continue to believe that the majority of people were seeking an alternative to Obama. The negative ads from Obama over the summer kind of kept people up in the air. THe debate changed all that. It validated that Mitt Romney is a good alternative to Obama.
I believe Obama will never consistently regain the lead in any credible poll again.
Why stop there? Let's go for the big guns: Massachusetts, Minnesota and California!
Well we can dream.
I live in NJ (southern) and I have not seen one single obama sign on the lawns, and only two in/on cars. I am praying New Jersey flips.
Unfortunately, North Jersey has become North Mexico in many areas, as well as a huge black population, and lots of liberal whites to boot. However, in a big big win it’s possible. Unlikely.
Wait until THURSDAY’s numbers, when the weekend sampling is out of the poll.. Romney is up 4-5 minimal, and frankly always has been.
46-40 Romney for those “certain” to vote. Wow that is devastating for Obama. Only 40 percent of swing-staters are sure to pull the lever for him. Means a large amount may either switch to Romney or stay home.
You cannot be an incumbent with only 40 percent definite support 4 weeks before the election and hope to win. Not gonna happen
Four weeks from today, folks!
The problem is that it is an average of those states.
“Rasmussen Reports issues our daily Swing State Tracking Poll to supplement, not replace, individual state polling. In Colorado and Ohio, Obama leads by a point. In Iowa and Nevada, the president is up two. He now leads by three in Wisconsin and has jumped to double-digit leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Romney leads by one in Virginia and two in Florida. Hes ahead by three in Missouri, North Carolina and New Hampshire.”
Without OH, Romney will lose.
causing a GIANT TSUNAMI ....
that will sweep Obama and his minions into the dustbin of history.
Chicago “surprise” coming soon. Just sayin’....
“Because I thought he was going to win.”
That mentality still drives many voters decisions, even today.
Please, please don’t get cocky...the BEAST isn’t dead yet and they are going to pull all the stops from here on! Hey, look they are using their BIG GUN..ahhhh BIG BIRD, that should do the trick and destroy Romney! BUT 4wks is an eternity! KEEP PRAYING and Fasting for our country...God please give Romney and Ryan the victory and protect them from those who intend to do them harm. Look GOD IS OUR only SOURCE! Because God is our secret weapon, let them have Big Bird we have the Big Man in the sky!
Wow and look how soft Obama’s support is.
Well, just wait until all of Romney’s GAFFES catch up to him!
(oh, wait...hang on....ummmmmm)
Its what i’ve been saying for a long time, Obama support has always been soft, we saw how soft in 2010.
“I live in NJ (southern) and I have not seen one single obama sign on the lawns, and only two in/on cars. I am praying New Jersey flips.”
i’m hoping against “hope and change” that the dearth of Obama lawn signs and bumper stickers means that Obama’s supporters are having their doubts, but my take is that they are still supporting Obama, but are now embarrassed to publicly show their support for him, but will still cast their vote for BO in November.
i’m praying that i am wrong and that they have seen the
God Save America from 4 more years of BO.
“Forty-six percent (46%) of these Swing State voters are now ‘certain’ they will vote for Romney and will not change their minds. Forty percent (40%) are certain they will vote for the president.”
That means that 14% are undecided or aren’t really sure of their vote. Gov. Romney is likely to get more than half this number.
They are going to pull a serious October surprise. I fear something really big.
Sigh. This is only a “shift” if people haven’t been paying attention to our FR absentee voting analysis. OH, FL, NC never really that much “in play” given the absentee voting numbers, which were turned upside down from 08. But I’m glad Ras and the other pollsters are finally catching up to reality.
Oh no no no! Please don’t insult Notre Dame like that! And it violates the sacred memory of Ronald Reagan playing the Gipper in the film! Ouch!
North Jersey has a huge Puerto Rican population and a huge percentage of them are as trapped in government dependency as the black population.
Romney will win OH. And you are wrong in some of your analysis. There are lots of recent polls showing Mitt ahead in CO and IA . . . don’t go by just one. And the latest from Michigan is that he is down by only 4. The trend is in our direction. Stay the course.
The possibility of a breakthrough ...
Yes, there is a possibility that the election will not be close, that all the swing states will fall to Romney and he will become competitive in some additional states.
Right now, neither Obama nor Romney will do anything about those states. Maybe, send Paul Ryan or Joe Biden in (plus, there are some surrogates who might be deployed).
Even later, even if it starts to look like a landslide, both camps will remain focused on the current set of battlegrounds, maybe abandoning one or two, but that will be it, because to abandon more would be to concede the election.
This means we’re going to have to depend on partisan fighters in the second tier states. Locals. Tea Party members.
Looking at the second tier states, MI, PA and NM are real possibilities. Plus, there are Senate seats in play, or which could be in play. CT is a little more iffy, but it too has a Senate seat in play.
Let’s look again at MO, MT and ND. We’re going to win those states. But, we might not win the Senate seats in them. These are opportunities to “nationalize” the Senate contests. Have Paul Ryan and a Mitt surrogate (Ann or one of the boys) campaign with the Senate candidate. (OK this is a little edgy in MO.)
Spreading the field and poaching: If Obama’s money starts to dry up, we can spread the field, and pick up some of these second tier states, since he (Obama) would not be able to respond. However, I think they have perfected how to get all the money in the world sent to them via (untraceable) temporary credit cards. So, I’m thinking the real reason for Romney to put resources into secondary states is to win seats in the Senate.
Wow and look how soft Obama’s support is.
I will caution here, what fake polls give, fake polls take away. The headline on election day even on Fox...”President looks to ride a slim lead to re-election”. The MSM will not allow Barak Obama to be defeated. They just won’t. We will win, but I do not let my emotions be swayed by daily tracking polls where the pollster can adjust reality to whatever he chooses. Romeny’s campaign is hitting on all cylinders now, Obama is imploding, but the MSM will not allow this reality to sink in. I expect a scandal or some tape to surface about R&R and the meme..”Game changer” to be used. You dont think the Maddows, Shultzes, Brian Williams and Scott Pelleys are not digging right now. They want the Magic Negro ensconced for 4 more years, they like their hegemony
Glad to see this in our favor. However, I don’t understand how this moves around. I really detest people without core principles.
I saw one stat (I think in Pew) that said that 46% of Romney voters were set. Wow. That’s almost nearing the point of no return, and very close to blowout territory even if you assume a 50/50 split among the famous “undecideds.”
Communists or just dumb as a damn rock? You decide.
Student loan forgiveness executive order coming up in 3...2...1...
Good thing he’s up here in the two latest polls (and always has been according to our absentee numbers).
My thoughts exactly when I saw this thread!
Romney is up 4-5 minimal, and frankly always has been.
I think you may be right... however I worry every day what tricks the Obamaugabe Regime still has up its sleeve. October surprise?
I am - cautiously - starting to "believe", FRiend... :-)
Thanks for all the great work you've been doing in Ohio, by the way.
Latest Pew shows Romney up 49 - 45...
The reality that is going on on the ground is showing up in the polling... And its only going to get worse for Obama.
What did Obama take out of the debates? He got his teleprompter back, and then promptly decided he wanted to use Big Bird as a Human Shield.... Sure it played to his core, but it makes him look even more pathetic to the rest of the electorate.
I have said it for a long long long time, Obama has an absolute MAX of 42-43% of the popular vote on election day... That’s it. Honestly, it is not beyond the realm of possiblity that on election day he could not hit 40%.
The idea this is a tight race was NONSENSE from day one.
You can’t be the most FAILED ADMINISTRATION IN THE MODERN ERA and think you are going to have a tight race, the whole idea this was a close one was propoganda and nonsense.
What happened? Left spent 200 Million dollard trying to paint Romney as an extremists and scary, and that kept the polls (with some additional manipulation close) and when Romney finally got a little time unfiltered with theAmerican People they saw he wasn’t what the press and the left portrayed him as, and neither is the president. And low and behold, OBamas fake numbers COLLAPSE overnight.
Obama never had a prayer for re-election, the propoganda campaign tried its best to make you think it could happen, but it was not and is not possible.
FIGHT like its neck and neck, but don’t buy into the nonsense folks.
Getting close. if R/R is close here and Obama won this state by 23 points in 08 then R/R could be close elsewhere
All those polls are out of date and contradicted by the latest ARG numbers. This will be a Romney landslide.
What are the D/R/I ratios?
You are right.
I wish he didn’t throw in leaners. If you aren’t decided at this late date, what are the chances you will vote anyway? I’m more interested in the certain numbers, which give R a 6 point lead.
The debate did what we needed it to do. It encouraged the right, it disheartened the left, and it introduced a competent decent-sounding guy to the middle that they can feel comfortable voting for.
When states like Michigan and Pennsylvania and described as swing states, you know the Dem candidate is in deep trouble.
I live in Montana so our electoral vote is tiny but Obama & Tester are hammering away here using the Internet.