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Romney takes lead in Rasmussen swing-state tracking poll, 49/46; ARG Ohio: Romney up 1 (D+9)
Hotair ^ | 10/09/2012 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 10/09/2012 9:06:51 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

We'll have plenty of poll data today, and most of it looks impressive for Mitt Romney --- including one from a surprising source, which I'll get to later today. Rasmussen's swing state poll might be the most crucial for looking at the swing in the race since the debate, since Romney hasn't had a lead in the eleven-state survey since September 19th. Today, however, the poll shows a five-point swing since yesterday and has Romney up three, 49/46:

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. ...

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.

The tracking poll dropped the results from last Monday and added yesterday’s results. That is what produced the five-point swing, and it suggests that stronger results might be on the way, as the last two pre-debate results will drop out tomorrow and Wednesday. Obama had led in this tracking poll by as much as six points on October 1st and 4th, the latter the day after the debate and the last day with no debate-driven results. Obama’s lead went from 6 to 5, then to 3 and a few days at 2 before today’s reversal.

The internals look pretty good for Romney, too, in this latest iteration. He has a 10-point lead among independents at 49/39, the latter a disastrous number for an incumbent just four weeks out from the election. Obama still leads among women, but only by five — and Romney leads among men by 11, for a +6 gender gap advantage. Obama has large leads among voters under 40 years of age (but not a majority among 30-39YOs at 49/37), while Romney wins solid majorities in all other age demos at 40 and above.

Moreover, Romney now leads by six among those “certain” of their vote, at 46/40. The soft numbers for Obama may be a real problem if he can’t dent Romney’s polling surge, as a preference cascade may wipe out the 7% that are leaning towards him now in these swing states. Romney does even better among independents in this measure, leading 43/31 among those “certain” of their choice. Romney has a 14-point lead among “certain” men (and a majority at 50/36), and only a three-point deficit among “certain” women, 41/44.

Those “certain” numbers will be key to watch over the next four weeks. If Romney can start solidifying support while Obama remains in the low 40s (or lower), the break of undecideds might be overwhelming.

Update: A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample. The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28. Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44. I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; arg; oh2012; ohio; rasmussen; romney

1 posted on 10/09/2012 9:07:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

They are using a democrat sample higher than 2008 and still Obama is losing?????? Sorry but this thing is not even close.


2 posted on 10/09/2012 9:13:32 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama getting his butt whipped right now. But don’t let up for a second people. Obama and his henchmen are going to Chavez the vote-we’ll need to overcome the RAT fraud factor big time.


3 posted on 10/09/2012 9:15:13 AM PDT by NoobRep
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To: SeekAndFind

Pollsters now switching from the “try to influence” mode to the “try to protect our legacy for next time” mode. Everyone knows “debates don’t matter” right? So how come so many people suddenly changed their minds in a matter of a couple of weeks?

The polls are BS, all of ‘em. Rasmussen got praised because he dialed back on the spin and bias better than the others and came closest to being right, is all.

Ignore all of ‘em and Get Out The Vote!


4 posted on 10/09/2012 9:16:55 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: NoobRep
"But don’t let up for a second people."

Yup.

Make the rubble bounce.

Then make it bounce again.

5 posted on 10/09/2012 9:21:26 AM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik (In a tornado, even turkeys can fly.)
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To: Lady Heron
They are using a democrat sample higher than 2008 and still Obama is losing?????? Sorry but this thing is not even close.

I think the goal at this point is to make it appear that Romney is "only" ahead by a couple points and the race is still winnable by Obama so as to keep the democrat base from just staying home. The dirty little secret is that they may have already written Obama off and are only trying to salvage democrat control of the Senate so they can shut down Mitt Romney's agenda if he is elected.

6 posted on 10/09/2012 9:23:54 AM PDT by apillar
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama no longer defines Romney. The voters meet Romney for the first time, last week. It appears they liked his fatherly scolding of the Clown-In-Chief manchild.


7 posted on 10/09/2012 9:25:14 AM PDT by swamprebel (a Constitution once changed from Freedom, can never be restored.)
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To: SeekAndFind; Perdogg; LS

I rebalanced this poll to account for the spread on independents, and to make it fit the more realistic partisan numbers from Rasmussen’s poll earlier this fall, and got the following:

Romney - 52.7%
Obama - 43.1%
Other/Undecided - 4.2%


8 posted on 10/09/2012 9:25:59 AM PDT by Yashcheritsiy (It's time to make Obama a minor footnote in the pages of history)
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To: apillar

If the republican is winning....it is always a squeaker the last couple of weeks in the polls and corrects the last week showing a break out for the republican until the numbers are where reality is unless the poll is totally in the tank for the dems and there are always a few.....Zogby


9 posted on 10/09/2012 9:27:00 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

ping all


10 posted on 10/09/2012 9:30:36 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Lady Heron
I guess I should also say that if the dem is winning it will always show a huge blow out for the dem.

The problem for republicans comes in deciding what type of year it is....are the dems really winning or is it the same old game trying to keep their guy in play.

11 posted on 10/09/2012 9:31:39 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: SeekAndFind

The Move On Thugs have seen these polls and are in state of panic.

Below is a copy of their most recent email to their fellow rats:

Dear MoveOn member,

There’s breaking news from Ohio. And it’s not good.

For months, shady outside groups have flooded the Ohio airwaves with almost $20 million in ads targeting Sen. Sherrod Brown.1

And for months, he’s withstood the onslaught, holding on to a six or seven-point lead.2

But this weekend, two new polls came out—one showing a tied race and the other showing Sherrod down four.3

This is, in a word, unacceptable.

Sherrod Brown is a fearless fighter for working people who has taken Wall Street head on, and now he’s paying the price. We can’t let Karl Rove and his big money backers win this one. We cannot let it happen. Can you donate to make sure we keep Sherrod in the Senate?

Yes, I’ll donate $5 to win in Ohio.

Senator Brown isn’t the only progressive who’s facing an onslaught of big money this year.

In Wisconsin, conservative Super PACs are hitting Tammy Baldwin after polls show her taking a small lead over her opponent.4

Tammy’s another great progressive, who led the fight in the House for the Buffett Rule—to make millionaires pay their fair share.5

Her opponent, Tommy Thompson, on the other hand, has spent years working for a D.C. lobbying firm fighting for special interests.

In Connecticut, it’s not outside money that’s the problem. It’s Republican Linda McMahon’s almost unlimited personal wealth. She spent $50 million on her failed Senate bid in 2010 and has already spent more than $13 million this year.6

But Chris Murphy’s values—fighting for campaign finance reform and quality health care—are much more in line with Connecticut’s voters’, and he’s opened a small lead.

These are races we have to win. But Tammy, Sherrod, and Chris need our help.

Click below to chip in $5:
https://pol.moveon.org/2012c/give/sherrod_brown.html?aa=5&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=3

Thanks for all you do.
–Daniel, Levana, and the rest of the team
Sources:
1. “Incumbent Sherrod Brown holds lead over Josh Mandel in Ohio’s hotly contested U.S. Senate battle: The Ohio Newspaper Poll,” The Plain Dealer, September 24, 2012
2. “OH Senator ‘12,” TPM Polltracker, accessed October 7, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=282155&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=4
3. “Polling Memorandum,” Wenzel Strategies, October 6, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=282156&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=5
“Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 46%, Mandel (R) 46%,” Rasmussen Reports, October 7, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=282157&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=6
4. “WI Senator ‘12,” TPM Polltracker, accessed October 7, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281166&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=7
5. “The Buffett Rule (Paying a Fair Share Act),” website of Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin, accessed September 21, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281167&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=8
“Tammy Baldwin To Introduce Resolution Opposing Immunity For Banks In Foreclosure Deal,” The Huffington Post, November 3, 2011
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281531&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=9
6. “Total Raised and Spent—2010 Race: Connecticut Senate,” OpenSecrets.org, accessed September 21, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281160&id=&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=10
“Total Raised and Spent—2012 Race: Connecticut Senate,” OpenSecrets.org, accessed September 21, 2012
http://www.moveon.org/r?r=281161&id=&id=54133-21930683-YopCbtx&t=11


12 posted on 10/09/2012 9:32:42 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (We are the 53%, who pay taxes and keep this country going inspite of the 47% rat moochers!)
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To: apillar
The dirty little secret is that they may have already written Obama off and are only trying to salvage democrat control of the Senate so they can shut down Mitt Romney's agenda if he is elected.

I agree, but I would be very shocked if that is not gone for them also.

13 posted on 10/09/2012 9:34:55 AM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: bigbob
Ignore all of ‘em and Get Out The Vote!

When things are within a few percentage points, the dominant factor becomes which side can get more people to show up and vote.

14 posted on 10/09/2012 9:35:01 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Charlie Daniels - Payback Time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWwTJj_nosI)
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To: Lady Heron
The GOP will take the Senate; be not afraid.

Much of Obama's key support groups..blacks, Hispanics, young women, students..is soft...and as the polls worsen for Obama more will be inclined to stay home..

And this will abslutely kill the Dems down ballot..

15 posted on 10/09/2012 9:41:56 AM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: ken5050

Interesting development.
Baraq has no chance in Indiana but they’re bringing in BJ Clinton this week to campaign for senate and gov candidates.


16 posted on 10/09/2012 9:43:37 AM PDT by nascarnation (Defeat Baraq 2012. Deport Baraq 2013)
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To: SeekAndFind

Uh oh if this poll is D +9 it’s going to be a marxist ass kicking of monumental proportions


17 posted on 10/09/2012 9:44:52 AM PDT by erod (This Chicagoan will crawl over broken glass to vote the fake Chicagoan Obama out!)
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To: SeekAndFind
When I saw Mitt Romney giving a foreign policy speech yesterday like he was already the president of the United States, it was the surest sign for me that this race has been turned completely upside down.

Romney spoke yesterday with the command and poise of a sitting president. We did not see this four years ago with McCain. McCain was always deferential to Obama and even telling the nation they had "nothing to fear" if Obama became president. Romney on the other hand is showing the nation not only that he really wants the job but that he can perform the job way better than his opponent.

18 posted on 10/09/2012 9:52:58 AM PDT by SamAdams76
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To: SeekAndFind

But..but... but... debates don`t matter!! The “media” told us so!


19 posted on 10/09/2012 9:54:48 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: SeekAndFind
And, if you didn't see it, ARG has R up 4 in CO.

I checked the OH absentee stats today, no real change. Perhaps because yesterday was a holiday.

20 posted on 10/09/2012 9:57:55 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SamAdams76
Romney looked great. . but wait, what do Axe and Valerie have in the wings for the October surprise?
21 posted on 10/09/2012 10:05:56 AM PDT by Art in Idaho (Conservatism is the only hope for Western Civilization.)
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To: nascarnation

I suspect that BK picked this spot..this way he can still say he’s being a good party guy..but secretly the Clintons are THRILLED that Obama’s imploding...


22 posted on 10/09/2012 10:07:08 AM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: nascarnation

I suspect that BJ picked this spot..this way he can still say he’s being a good party guy..but secretly the Clintons are THRILLED that Obama’s imploding...


23 posted on 10/09/2012 10:07:16 AM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: SeekAndFind

Can someone openly support Romney and not get zotted here?


24 posted on 10/09/2012 10:16:59 AM PDT by lormand (A Government who robs Peter to pay Paul, will always have the support of Paul)
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To: lormand

Yes. Things have changed. Lol.


25 posted on 10/09/2012 10:25:58 AM PDT by johniegrad
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To: SnuffaBolshevik

...then turn it into glass, just to be sure.


26 posted on 10/09/2012 10:34:29 AM PDT by ConservativeVoice
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To: lormand
Yes......welcome to the pre-election party......

BUT don't forget to vote for Romney before poll closing on election day or may the ZOT be with you!

27 posted on 10/09/2012 10:49:29 AM PDT by thingumbob (I'm a bitter clinger...I dare you to take my gun)
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To: SamAdams76

We did not see this four years ago with McCain. McCain was always deferential to Obama and even telling the nation they had “nothing to fear” if Obama became president. Romney on the other hand is showing the nation not only that he really wants the job but that he can perform the job way better than his opponent.


So true. Gentleman Johnny thought his “ higher sense of respect” would overcome the “ hot air” being spewed by O, and the fact that he had never
accomplished a thing in his life other than being coddled along.


28 posted on 10/09/2012 10:50:40 AM PDT by patriotspride
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To: SeekAndFind

How large is the sample total in the ARG poll, and is it ADULTS, REGISTERED, or LIKELY?


29 posted on 10/09/2012 11:13:31 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: MrChips

Ohio

Interview dates: October 5-8, 2012

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for president and Paul Ryan for vice president, the Republicans, for whom would you vote - Obama and Biden or Romney and Ryan (names rotated), or someone else?

Ohio
  Obama Romney Other Undecided
Likely voters 47% 48% 1% 4%
Democrats (42%) 88% 7% 1% 4%
Republicans (33%) 3% 92% - 5%
Independents (25%) 37% 57% 2% 4%
Men (48%) 46% 50% 1% 3%
Women (52%) 48% 45% 1% 6%
18 to 49 (53%) 50% 44% 1% 5%
50 and older (47%) 44% 52% 1% 3%
White (84%) 39% 56% 1% 4%
African American (11%) 95% 3% - 2%
Sep 10-12 48% 47% 1% 4%

 

ARG home

 


30 posted on 10/09/2012 11:17:20 AM PDT by SeekAndFind (bOTRT)
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To: SeekAndFind
Photobucket That will change after the next debate...0 has a brilliant plan.
31 posted on 10/09/2012 12:27:38 PM PDT by RetSignman (REMEMBER THE 2010 MOVEMENT)
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To: lormand
Can someone openly support Romney and not get zotted here?

Er.....he's the Republican nominee now.

Welcome back to Free Republic.

32 posted on 10/09/2012 12:32:16 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Perdogg

bookmarked for later


33 posted on 10/09/2012 4:38:44 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
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