Skip to comments.Romney wins in a landslide -- Las Vegas oddsmaker doubles down on prediction
Posted on 10/09/2012 10:03:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Yes, you read that headline correctly. I am a Las Vegas oddsmaker (and former Libertarian vice presidential candidate) and here's why I am so boldly predicting a Romney landslide. In November of 2004, only days before the presidential election, I went on CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax magazine called it the most accurate prediction of 2004.
In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get slaughtered in the midterm election and lose Congress. They did.
In December 2011, before the GOP primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win the GOP presidential nomination and go on to win the presidency. For the next few months, Romney trailed by a wide margin to a range of contenders -- Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It seemed no one wanted Mitt for president. It seemed no one believed in Mitt. No one, that is, except this Las Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.
Fast forward to Spring 2012 after Romney clinched the GOP nomination, but trailed in every poll to President Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney landslide on Election Day, November 6.
Fast forward to June 2012, when experts predicted a defeat for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring unheard of sums into the race in a longtime Democratic state that welcomes union rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points. He won by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic voter irregularities).
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
READ ON TO UNDERSTAND MY REASONS...
Someone posted this a few days ago:
I looked at the state by state breakdown over the last three presidential election cycles. If you just include the states that went to obama last time, but normally went R with the ones Romney has sewn up now, Romney wins. And he’ll get at least that.
That is when I stopped worrying even a little bit.
Obama down bigtime, Romney up on Intrade as well.
We will look even better when Ryan finishes his debate with Neil Kinnoch....
NEIL KINNOCK at Welsh Labour Party conference May 1987:
“Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? Was it because our predecessors were thick? Does anybody really think that they didn’t get what we had because they didn’t have the talent or the strength or the endurance or the commitment? Of course not. It was because there was no platform upon which they could stand”
JOE BIDEN IN Sept 1987 during his first presidential campaign:
“Why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go a university? Why is it that my wife... is the first in her family to ever go to college? Is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright? ...Is it because they didn’t work hard? My ancestors who worked in the coal mines of northeast Pennsylvania and would come after 12 hours and play football for four hours? It’s because they didn’t have a platform on which to stand.”
I heard Wayne Allen Root on the Joe Paggs show this morning. He is one of many on Obama’s enemies list who are currently being audited by the IRS.
I bought my election night fireworks last week.
you are absolutely correct.
thanks for posting this. i normally studiously ignore the puffingtonpost, and would have missed this.
With regards to the EC, the 100-120 margin is consistent with the modeling by the two Colorado professors who have been right since 1980.
I think the only question is whether it will be bigger than 6% and be a complete landslide. If most of the independents go to Romney (again, see The Incumbent Rule) and the under 34's stay home, we could be talking about a 10 point margin of victory in the popular vote.
Just finished the article. Excellent read. I look to those with good track records for predictions. It’s why Rasmussen and Pew are the only polls that matter to me at all.
As we say in Shul: “From your mouth to G-d’s ears!”
I worry a little Dems will try something unethical; voter fraud, ballot dumping. i worry more that Obama’s lies, and the MSM who stump for him daily will dupe enough morons into voting for a second term.
I pray that there’s enough common sense left in this country to elect some semblance of a conservative, but unless we turn this ship around, Romney will just be a stumbling block on the road to complete socialism.
Is there an application and an interview process for the job?
I bought my election night fireworks last week.
I’m going to blast Hendrix’s “Star Spangled Banner” from Woodstock at ear-splitting volume out my front window.
Also on the playlist will be James Brown’s “I Feel Good”
I’m open for suggestions - perhaps this could be a thread of its own.
This is a very interesting article. Little reported in the news media is that Obama is tanking in Illinois of all places. Yes of course Obama will carry one party Chicago, but the suburbs and counties surrounding the city have turned sharply against him. The Dems have all but ruined Illinois and there is huge voter discontent in that state. Outside of the city limits of Chicago, Obama’s support in Illinois is tenous at best. The Romney campaign should start focusing there.
We’re going to need at least 6 points to get rid of Obama. Any less, and the fraud and lawyers kick in. He needs to get his butt kicked so bad that he just goes away.
I heard him on Paggs’ show this morning too. Pretty scary about all the things happening to him now. But I don’t think he’ll be backing down any time soon.
Also on the same CD:
I’d stay out of the big cities for a while after a Romney victory.
. I do remember that. It was once again democrap lies and wishful thinking that Kerry was ahead, when in fact, he was never ahead. In fact, he fell way behind in August when the truthful Swift Boaters came out.
I like that - 6% is too big to steal. I hope it is true.
But until Obama delivers a concession speech, we should fight like we’re five points behind...
Wow - thanks! Those both kick ass!
That is a well know FACT, it is just who they are.
Just this morning Fox reported that Romney is going after Wisconsin for not getting the Military ballots out in time. Don't know what he will do about it, but I suspect he will not give up on this, and possibly use it in his campaign going FORWARD.
He needs to publicly humiliate them for their lack of respect for our troops who are fighting and being killed to give us our right to vote. Shame on them, shame, shame on them.
Better? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I personally enjoy both versions (and many others).
I think BO wants to lose and go live in Hawaii therefore he won’t have the stomach to go thru a long, contested battle unless the Mooch and Valerie make him. I think he will be glad he lost at some level. After all, he is now set for life, but history won’t be kind to him.
I realize Hendricks is an icon but in context his version was anti-war anti-establishment. He did it for notoriety, not for the love of the song or love of country.
“I can’t wait to Vote” I hope I have to stand in line for an hour. I want a MANDATE.
Really? If I was Obama I would send Wayne Allen Root a thank you card for delivering North Carolina to Democrats for the first time in a generation. The nonstop Palin bashing from him and Bob Barr really paid off.
Barack Obama/Joe Biden, Democrat 2,142,651 49.70% 15 electoral votes
John McCain/ Sarah Palin Republican 2,128,474 49.38% 0 electoral votes
Bob Barr/ Wayne Allyn Root Libertarian 25,722 0.60% 0 electoral votes
I’ve been watching that huffington post electoral map. It’s become a favorite thing to check. You can watch the tide turn. If you have windows 7 you can use the snipping tool (in accessories) to snip the bar at the top of the page a couple times a day and throw it in a word document and catalog the movement.