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Romney wins in a landslide -- Las Vegas oddsmaker doubles down on prediction
Fox News ^ | 10/09/2012 | By Wayne Allyn Root

Posted on 10/09/2012 10:03:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Yes, you read that headline correctly. I am a Las Vegas oddsmaker (and former Libertarian vice presidential candidate) and here's why I am so boldly predicting a Romney landslide. In November of 2004, only days before the presidential election, I went on CNBC and predicted a Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax magazine called it the most accurate prediction of 2004.

In October of 2006, I went on Fox News to predict the GOP would get slaughtered in the midterm election and lose Congress. They did.

In December 2011, before the GOP primary, I predicted Mitt Romney would win the GOP presidential nomination and go on to win the presidency. For the next few months, Romney trailed by a wide margin to a range of contenders -- Donald Trump, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum. It seemed no one wanted Mitt for president. It seemed no one believed in Mitt. No one, that is, except this Las Vegas oddsmaker and capitalist evangelist.

Fast forward to Spring 2012 after Romney clinched the GOP nomination, but trailed in every poll to President Obama. I boldly predicted a Mitt Romney landslide on Election Day, November 6.

Fast forward to June 2012, when experts predicted a defeat for Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker in his recall election. Unions were pouring unheard of sums into the race in a longtime Democratic state that welcomes union rights. I boldly predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points. He won by exactly 7 (despite reported Democratic voter irregularities).

(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Nevada
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; lasvegas; oddsmaker; romney
For the past month, as Mitt Romney trailed badly in almost every poll, especially in the all-important battleground states, I continued to predict a big Romney victory. Today I’m making it official.

READ ON TO UNDERSTAND MY REASONS...

1 posted on 10/09/2012 10:03:15 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Someone posted this a few days ago:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

I looked at the state by state breakdown over the last three presidential election cycles. If you just include the states that went to obama last time, but normally went R with the ones Romney has sewn up now, Romney wins. And he’ll get at least that.

That is when I stopped worrying even a little bit.


2 posted on 10/09/2012 10:06:01 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Obama down bigtime, Romney up on Intrade as well.


3 posted on 10/09/2012 10:08:33 AM PDT by bigbob
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To: SeekAndFind; All

We will look even better when Ryan finishes his debate with Neil Kinnoch....

NEIL KINNOCK at Welsh Labour Party conference May 1987:

“Why am I the first Kinnock in a thousand generations to be able to get to university? Was it because our predecessors were thick? Does anybody really think that they didn’t get what we had because they didn’t have the talent or the strength or the endurance or the commitment? Of course not. It was because there was no platform upon which they could stand”

JOE BIDEN IN Sept 1987 during his first presidential campaign:

“Why is it that Joe Biden is the first in his family ever to go a university? Why is it that my wife... is the first in her family to ever go to college? Is it because our fathers and mothers were not bright? ...Is it because they didn’t work hard? My ancestors who worked in the coal mines of northeast Pennsylvania and would come after 12 hours and play football for four hours? It’s because they didn’t have a platform on which to stand.”


4 posted on 10/09/2012 10:10:49 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I heard Wayne Allen Root on the Joe Paggs show this morning. He is one of many on Obama’s enemies list who are currently being audited by the IRS.


5 posted on 10/09/2012 10:11:05 AM PDT by BradtotheBone (Moderate Democrat - A politician whose voting record leans left and whose vote can be bought.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I bought my election night fireworks last week.


6 posted on 10/09/2012 10:12:53 AM PDT by Obadiah (The corrupt MSM is the enemy of the American people.)
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To: cuban leaf

you are absolutely correct.

thanks for posting this. i normally studiously ignore the puffingtonpost, and would have missed this.


7 posted on 10/09/2012 10:14:01 AM PDT by QualityMan (Don't Tread on Me)
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To: SeekAndFind
The numbers are actually pretty easy to believe. If Romney has 43% that will vote for him no matter what and Obama has 42% that will do the same, that leaves 15% "undecided". If they break 2-1 against the incumbent (not an unreasonable assumption - see The Incumbent Rule), that gives Romney a 6% victory.

With regards to the EC, the 100-120 margin is consistent with the modeling by the two Colorado professors who have been right since 1980.

I think the only question is whether it will be bigger than 6% and be a complete landslide. If most of the independents go to Romney (again, see The Incumbent Rule) and the under 34's stay home, we could be talking about a 10 point margin of victory in the popular vote.

8 posted on 10/09/2012 10:15:14 AM PDT by Pete (Check out an 11 year old entrepreneur: boodlies.com)
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To: SeekAndFind

Just finished the article. Excellent read. I look to those with good track records for predictions. It’s why Rasmussen and Pew are the only polls that matter to me at all.


9 posted on 10/09/2012 10:16:40 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind

As we say in Shul: “From your mouth to G-d’s ears!”


10 posted on 10/09/2012 10:20:24 AM PDT by ssaftler (With apologies to Gene Kranz: "Obama is not an option")
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To: SeekAndFind

I worry a little Dems will try something unethical; voter fraud, ballot dumping. i worry more that Obama’s lies, and the MSM who stump for him daily will dupe enough morons into voting for a second term.
I pray that there’s enough common sense left in this country to elect some semblance of a conservative, but unless we turn this ship around, Romney will just be a stumbling block on the road to complete socialism.


11 posted on 10/09/2012 10:24:49 AM PDT by No_More_Harkin
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To: Obadiah
P-A-R-T-Y!!!
12 posted on 10/09/2012 10:26:15 AM PDT by AngelesCrestHighway
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To: SeekAndFind
I am a Las Vegas oddsmaker...

Is there an application and an interview process for the job?

13 posted on 10/09/2012 10:33:11 AM PDT by Last Dakotan
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To: Obadiah

I bought my election night fireworks last week.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I’m going to blast Hendrix’s “Star Spangled Banner” from Woodstock at ear-splitting volume out my front window.

Also on the playlist will be James Brown’s “I Feel Good”

I’m open for suggestions - perhaps this could be a thread of its own.


14 posted on 10/09/2012 10:38:43 AM PDT by Eccl 10:2 (Prov 3:5 --- "Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding")
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To: SeekAndFind

This is a very interesting article. Little reported in the news media is that Obama is tanking in Illinois of all places. Yes of course Obama will carry one party Chicago, but the suburbs and counties surrounding the city have turned sharply against him. The Dems have all but ruined Illinois and there is huge voter discontent in that state. Outside of the city limits of Chicago, Obama’s support in Illinois is tenous at best. The Romney campaign should start focusing there.


15 posted on 10/09/2012 10:44:11 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Pete

We’re going to need at least 6 points to get rid of Obama. Any less, and the fraud and lawyers kick in. He needs to get his butt kicked so bad that he just goes away.


16 posted on 10/09/2012 10:45:26 AM PDT by Defiant (If there are infinite parallel universes, why Lord, am I living in the one with Obama as President?)
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To: BradtotheBone

I heard him on Paggs’ show this morning too. Pretty scary about all the things happening to him now. But I don’t think he’ll be backing down any time soon.


17 posted on 10/09/2012 10:46:37 AM PDT by texaschick
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To: SeekAndFind
Intrade.com:


18 posted on 10/09/2012 10:49:46 AM PDT by cynwoody
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To: Eccl 10:2
This is better and more respectful than Hendricks version of the National Anthem :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqKNJFqZO08&feature=relmfu

Also on the same CD:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0uw8jhQx5U&feature=relmfu

19 posted on 10/09/2012 10:52:09 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: AngelesCrestHighway

Awesome pic!


20 posted on 10/09/2012 10:57:03 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: pfflier

I’d stay out of the big cities for a while after a Romney victory.


21 posted on 10/09/2012 11:02:02 AM PDT by massgopguy (I owe everything to George Bailey)
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To: SeekAndFind
Every poll at the time showed Kerry in the lead. Bush won by 3 and 35

. I do remember that. It was once again democrap lies and wishful thinking that Kerry was ahead, when in fact, he was never ahead. In fact, he fell way behind in August when the truthful Swift Boaters came out.

22 posted on 10/09/2012 11:02:22 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: SeekAndFind; pookie18
ROMNEY LANDSLIDE
23 posted on 10/09/2012 11:03:03 AM PDT by FrankR (They will become our ultimate masters the day we surrender the 2nd Amendment.)
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To: Pete

I like that - 6% is too big to steal. I hope it is true.
But until Obama delivers a concession speech, we should fight like we’re five points behind...


24 posted on 10/09/2012 11:05:17 AM PDT by Little Ray (AGAINST Obama in the General.)
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To: pfflier

Wow - thanks! Those both kick ass!


25 posted on 10/09/2012 11:11:10 AM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: No_More_Harkin
I worry a little Dems will try something unethical; voter fraud, ballot dumping.""""".....

That is a well know FACT, it is just who they are.

Just this morning Fox reported that Romney is going after Wisconsin for not getting the Military ballots out in time. Don't know what he will do about it, but I suspect he will not give up on this, and possibly use it in his campaign going FORWARD.

He needs to publicly humiliate them for their lack of respect for our troops who are fighting and being killed to give us our right to vote. Shame on them, shame, shame on them.

26 posted on 10/09/2012 11:11:53 AM PDT by annieokie (O)
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To: pfflier
This is better and more respectful than Hendricks version of the National Anthem :

Better? Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I personally enjoy both versions (and many others).

27 posted on 10/09/2012 11:11:53 AM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: No_More_Harkin

I think BO wants to lose and go live in Hawaii therefore he won’t have the stomach to go thru a long, contested battle unless the Mooch and Valerie make him. I think he will be glad he lost at some level. After all, he is now set for life, but history won’t be kind to him.


28 posted on 10/09/2012 11:31:47 AM PDT by dandiegirl
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To: Windflier
True. I am not known for my subtle diplomacy. It is my opinion alone that I represent.

I realize Hendricks is an icon but in context his version was anti-war anti-establishment. He did it for notoriety, not for the love of the song or love of country.

29 posted on 10/09/2012 11:38:57 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: SeekAndFind

ping


30 posted on 10/09/2012 11:53:25 AM PDT by ducttape45
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To: SeekAndFind

“I can’t wait to Vote” I hope I have to stand in line for an hour. I want a MANDATE.

TT


31 posted on 10/09/2012 12:14:25 PM PDT by TexasTransplant (Radical islam is islam. Moderate islam is the Trojan Horse.)
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To: SeekAndFind; ExTexasRedhead
for later read ...................................... FRegards
32 posted on 10/09/2012 7:04:45 PM PDT by gonzo ( Buy more ammo, dammit! You should already have the firearms ... FRegards)
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To: BradtotheBone
>> I heard Wayne Allen Root on the Joe Paggs show this morning. He is one of many on Obama’s enemies list who are currently being audited by the IRS. <<

Really? If I was Obama I would send Wayne Allen Root a thank you card for delivering North Carolina to Democrats for the first time in a generation. The nonstop Palin bashing from him and Bob Barr really paid off.

Barack Obama/Joe Biden, Democrat 2,142,651 49.70% 15 electoral votes
John McCain/ Sarah Palin Republican 2,128,474 49.38% 0 electoral votes
Bob Barr/ Wayne Allyn Root Libertarian 25,722 0.60% 0 electoral votes

33 posted on 10/09/2012 8:30:08 PM PDT by BillyBoy ( Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: QualityMan

I’ve been watching that huffington post electoral map. It’s become a favorite thing to check. You can watch the tide turn. If you have windows 7 you can use the snipping tool (in accessories) to snip the bar at the top of the page a couple times a day and throw it in a word document and catalog the movement.


34 posted on 10/10/2012 5:39:23 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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