Posted on 10/09/2012 12:23:24 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
From a memo by RNC political director Rick Wiley:
In at least four key swing states in 2008, Obama won handily among early voters, allowing him to win those state without winning the actual Election Day vote. He will not have the same early vote lead this year because our Absentee Balloting operation is producing promising results. In Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada Republicans have requested more absentee ballots than Democrats. While we run programs in every battleground state, not all states track ballots by voter identification, so we can only measure our progress in certain ones.
As of Saturday, Republicans had requested 656,813 absentee ballots in Colorado, compared to Democrats' 627,064, according to records from the Secretary of State. In North Carolina, more than 52% of all ballot requests have come from Republicans, whereas Democrats account for only 27% of requests and unaffiliated voters, 21%.
In Florida, 43.4% of absentee ballot requests came from Republicans, 39% from Democrats. Republicans have an even larger advantage in returned absentee ballots: 45.5% to 38%.
In Nevada, absentee ballot requests favor Republicans 43.9% to 39.2%, with some smaller GOP-leaning counties not reporting. We expect our advantage in Nevada therefore to be even larger.
Read the full memo about the GOP's get out the vote effort here. It’s certainly been more aggressive than it was in 2008; in Florida, for instance, the RNC has made seven times the number of phone calls that were made in 2008.
Not good. Too many games you can play with absentees, like “losing” them from certain precincts or zip codes.
ping
Ohio will be the key again.
I agree. one should not use an absentee ballot unless actually unable to go to the polls. Where I vote the ballots are counted as they're put in the slot.
Watch out for Chicago thugs. All this excitement makes me nervous.
I already voted here in Iowa. A little worried that shenanigans could be played but was impressed with the system after the experience.
The Florida data has me worried. According to the following story (which I hope is wrong), the R advantage in absentee ballot requests was 15 points in 2008 and it’s now only 4 points:
Does anyone have any data that disproves the 2008 numbers ... which are quoted from a Democratic operative, by the way.
I’m working for the Pubs in CA. We’ve been calling all
Republicans that have voted at the polls last time. That
info is available from the Registrar of Voters. We are
asking them to consider using the form located in their
Sample Ballot, to apply for “Vote by Mail” status.
WHY? Because we get better marked ballots, as people take
more care in their own home. A big plus is that regardless
of election day demands (work, illness, childcare) they have voted!
I have no fear of ballot mischef as the system gets nailed down tighter and tighter with every election.
The Reps are finally waking up re early voting. The Dems have been killing us in this area. It is a way to get out your vote and not depend on people showing up on election day. There could be bad weather, illness, emergencies that require one to be out of town, and just plain laziness. We should all be encouraging early in-person voting.
Very, very good news.
If you’ve followed our OH absentee threads, OH is a done deal.
This is true, but even with massive fraud you can only really cheat to win in close elections. This one may not be close enough to cheat.
Plus you have to have people motivated to do cheating. It is one thing to be able to drive all over Wisconsin and vote, it is another to CARE enough to do it.
Being paid to do it is one thing, but how can they even verify the person actually did it?
They CAN cheat, but only within certain ranges.
I agree, I did not consider who the secty of state is.
Here is my take on the ten states in real doubt:
Colorado- Obama has fallen cery slightly behind. The continued economic problems and energy policies are hurting him badly in the eastern and western rural parts of the state. There is a significant Mormon vote in the northwestern portion.
Florida- This state continues to look better and Romney is pulling ahead, even though Obama remains within striking distance. Non Cuban hispanics are less liberal here than elsewhere and they appear to be trending against Obama. So are suburban independents. Obama barely won here in 2008.
Iowa- A very problematic state that’s a pure tossup at the moment. The state’s economy is doing pretty well and Obama’s support for wind power is a big plus locally, but the deficits and plugging for abortion and gay marriage are hurting him. The attacks on Romney as an oilman-coddling plutocrat have had an impact.
Nevada- Very close, but Obama still seems to have a microscopic edge. Immigration from southern California and Latin America is turning Las Vegas into Los Angeles with slot machines and the rest of the state is outvoted by it. The flip side is the presence of a large Mormon base, which explains Harry Reid’s personal attacks on Romney. They could turn out in record numbers and that would be felt most keenly in Nevada.
New Hampshire- Obama was leading by about 10 points, but it’s collapsed in the past two weeks. Polls have vaccilated all over the map and it’s hard to tell who has the upper hand at this time. The longtime residents have Libertarian leanings, but it’s drawn a number of liberal migrants from the Boston area.
North Carolina- Romney has pulled ahead and is now polling at about 50%. Obama still has a chance, but it’s getting smaller every day.
Ohio- Ground Zero, just like it was in 2004. Obama has lost ground, but he still clings to a tiny lead and Romney has yet to pull ahead. The local economy is improving, the auto bailout is locally popular, and Romney’s image as an aristocrat are still problems here. Still, the locals tend to be socially conservative and concerned about the growing debt.
Pennsylvania- This is new to the swing state list. Working Class white Catholics are abondoning Obama and his party in droves. Obama still has the edge here, thanks to overwhelming support in metro Philadelphia, but it’s no longer in the bag.
Virginia- Obama has is running no better than even now, the first time all year he hasn’t had the lead. Republicans seem to be winning some independent voters in the outer D.C. suburbs of northern Virginia and the rest of the state is solidifying around Republicans.
Wisconsin- This is the one state where the Vice Presidential debate had an impact and favorite son Paul Ryan is the primary reason this state is in play (Scott Walker is the secondary reason). Forces who defeated the sore loser recall effort of the Governor are still in force, but there is a large liberal base here. Obama still appears to have a small lead, but look for Ryan to spend the closing days here.
Agree. Have been saying that for quite a number of years here on FR.
There are three major factors that should tamp down on the degree of Dummyfraud this year as compared to '08:
(1)As you implied, Obamatons less enthusiastic in general.
(2)New voter ID requirements in effect in some states.
(3)More GOP, fewer 'Rat Secretaries of State supervising elections.
Thanks justiceseeker93.
NH and Iowa are the 2 swing states that are very White. I’d be a bit surprised if Obama ended up winning either.
“EARTH PIMPS” Ping!!!
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