Not good. Too many games you can play with absentees, like “losing” them from certain precincts or zip codes.
Ohio will be the key again.
Watch out for Chicago thugs. All this excitement makes me nervous.
The Florida data has me worried. According to the following story (which I hope is wrong), the R advantage in absentee ballot requests was 15 points in 2008 and it’s now only 4 points:
Does anyone have any data that disproves the 2008 numbers ... which are quoted from a Democratic operative, by the way.
Here is my take on the ten states in real doubt:
Colorado- Obama has fallen cery slightly behind. The continued economic problems and energy policies are hurting him badly in the eastern and western rural parts of the state. There is a significant Mormon vote in the northwestern portion.
Florida- This state continues to look better and Romney is pulling ahead, even though Obama remains within striking distance. Non Cuban hispanics are less liberal here than elsewhere and they appear to be trending against Obama. So are suburban independents. Obama barely won here in 2008.
Iowa- A very problematic state that’s a pure tossup at the moment. The state’s economy is doing pretty well and Obama’s support for wind power is a big plus locally, but the deficits and plugging for abortion and gay marriage are hurting him. The attacks on Romney as an oilman-coddling plutocrat have had an impact.
Nevada- Very close, but Obama still seems to have a microscopic edge. Immigration from southern California and Latin America is turning Las Vegas into Los Angeles with slot machines and the rest of the state is outvoted by it. The flip side is the presence of a large Mormon base, which explains Harry Reid’s personal attacks on Romney. They could turn out in record numbers and that would be felt most keenly in Nevada.
New Hampshire- Obama was leading by about 10 points, but it’s collapsed in the past two weeks. Polls have vaccilated all over the map and it’s hard to tell who has the upper hand at this time. The longtime residents have Libertarian leanings, but it’s drawn a number of liberal migrants from the Boston area.
North Carolina- Romney has pulled ahead and is now polling at about 50%. Obama still has a chance, but it’s getting smaller every day.
Ohio- Ground Zero, just like it was in 2004. Obama has lost ground, but he still clings to a tiny lead and Romney has yet to pull ahead. The local economy is improving, the auto bailout is locally popular, and Romney’s image as an aristocrat are still problems here. Still, the locals tend to be socially conservative and concerned about the growing debt.
Pennsylvania- This is new to the swing state list. Working Class white Catholics are abondoning Obama and his party in droves. Obama still has the edge here, thanks to overwhelming support in metro Philadelphia, but it’s no longer in the bag.
Virginia- Obama has is running no better than even now, the first time all year he hasn’t had the lead. Republicans seem to be winning some independent voters in the outer D.C. suburbs of northern Virginia and the rest of the state is solidifying around Republicans.
Wisconsin- This is the one state where the Vice Presidential debate had an impact and favorite son Paul Ryan is the primary reason this state is in play (Scott Walker is the secondary reason). Forces who defeated the sore loser recall effort of the Governor are still in force, but there is a large liberal base here. Obama still appears to have a small lead, but look for Ryan to spend the closing days here.