Skip to comments.Romney up two among likely voters in Gallup, now leads in RCP poll of polls (However... see below)
Posted on 10/09/2012 1:36:15 PM PDT by TBBT
Key footnote: According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obamas back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours. Thats the first and so far only data Ive seen suggesting that Romneys bounce might not be durable, and even that could turn back around if Ryan cements Mitts Denver thrashing of O with another clear win on Thursday.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
All I know for sure... I don't like it when my parade gets rained on...
Leave it to Allahpundit to piss on a party. I refuse to read him. He’s a perpetual eeyore.
The wide swings that some polls have shown recently are suspect IMO.My best guess at the moment is that Romney’s up by one...maybe two,which is certainly within the margin of error.
What goes up must come down ...sometimes.
Yes Romney has a bump and it may be a lasting one. It may also reduce a bit over time.
As to Ryan/ Biden and the remaining Romney/Obama debates? I think they are completely up in the air and anything can happen.
Obama surely will takje some uppers for the remaining debates, and he will at least attempt a counter attack. Romney will have to be sublime to come anywhere near what he accomplished in Debate 1.
As for Ryan, Biden is a times a good BS artist, and Ryan will either come off as young and brilliant, or just young.
There are Eeyores everywhere on the right. You will never ever be able to attack a conservative for wearing rose-colored glasses by nature, but so many of us swing to the other end of the spectrum.
We have to remind these people that Eeyore’s a donkey, not an elephant!
So... This would be big if the swing back to Obama +5 was in the likely voter tally. But it’s in the registered voter tally, which today already has Obama +3. So the swing isn’t that big of a deal... especially considering it was a small sample size that includes Sunday.
Ah, but since registered voters are irrelevant at this point, what’s his “lead” among “likely” voters?
He is an eeyore. That's why Gallup doesn't have a 36 hour tracking poll. It has a seven day tracking poll.
Today is the 1st day Gallup publishes Likely Voters as opposed to just Registered voters. Likely voter polls are much more accurate. Why Gallup insists on clinging to this obsolete methodology of Registered Voter polls is a mystery.
Today is the 1st day Gallup publishes Likely Voters as opposed to just Registered voters. Likely voter polls are much more accurate. Why Gallup insists on clinging to this obsolete methodology of “Registered Voter polls” is a mystery.
Someone needs to tell allahpundit the Gallup gap is down to 3. But among likelies, Romney leads by 2.
he is just repeating what he read on Slate.
Gallup’s spin here does not even make sense when examining the numbers. Romney gained 2 points last night in the registered voter poll. Rather than suggest that the debate bump is fading, it suggests that Sunday’s numbers were an unusually good night for 0. In other words, an aberration. The pro-Romney trend is confirmed by the fact that he gained 2 in the RV poll with Monday’s sample included.
He’s asserting that the gap is up to five among those polled in the past 36 hours; you’re citing the 7-day rolling average. Big difference. However, it’s usually foolish to split a poll like allahpundit has done: the reason Gallup uses 7-day rolling averages is to increase the accuracy of the poll. The 36-hour bump is more likely statistical noise... but of course something to watch.