Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Romney up two among likely voters in Gallup, now leads in RCP poll of polls (However... see below)
hotair.com ^ | 10/9/2012 | Allahpundit

Posted on 10/09/2012 1:36:15 PM PDT by TBBT

Key footnote: According to Gallup, after losing his five-point lead last week, Obama’s back out to a five-point lead in their daily tracker over the past 36 hours. That’s the first — and so far only — data I’ve seen suggesting that Romney’s bounce might not be durable, and even that could turn back around if Ryan cements Mitt’s Denver thrashing of O with another clear win on Thursday.

(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: gallup; polls; romeny; romney
Don't know what that means exactly. About regaining that 5 point lead... Is that in the likely or registered voter tally? Does that "past 36 hours" mean Sunday (weekend polling)and Monday?

All I know for sure... I don't like it when my parade gets rained on...

1 posted on 10/09/2012 1:36:28 PM PDT by TBBT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Leave it to Allahpundit to piss on a party. I refuse to read him. He’s a perpetual eeyore.


2 posted on 10/09/2012 1:37:51 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

The wide swings that some polls have shown recently are suspect IMO.My best guess at the moment is that Romney’s up by one...maybe two,which is certainly within the margin of error.


3 posted on 10/09/2012 1:40:56 PM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Ambassador Stevens Is Dead And The Chevy Volt Is Alive)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Gay State Conservative
Gallup: "Since Saturday, however, Obama has regained a 50% to 45% edge among registered voters in interviewing conducted Sunday and Monday — the same as his margin in the three days prior to the debate. Although these two days of interviewing involve relatively small sample sizes, they suggest that Romney’s debate “bounce” may be fading."
4 posted on 10/09/2012 1:47:35 PM PDT by TBBT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

What goes up must come down ...sometimes.

Yes Romney has a bump and it may be a lasting one. It may also reduce a bit over time.

As to Ryan/ Biden and the remaining Romney/Obama debates? I think they are completely up in the air and anything can happen.

Obama surely will takje some uppers for the remaining debates, and he will at least attempt a counter attack. Romney will have to be sublime to come anywhere near what he accomplished in Debate 1.

As for Ryan, Biden is a times a good BS artist, and Ryan will either come off as young and brilliant, or just young.


5 posted on 10/09/2012 1:49:17 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

There are Eeyores everywhere on the right. You will never ever be able to attack a conservative for wearing rose-colored glasses by nature, but so many of us swing to the other end of the spectrum.

We have to remind these people that Eeyore’s a donkey, not an elephant!


6 posted on 10/09/2012 1:50:32 PM PDT by UltraV ("Well you've got to hand it to Mitt Romney, because President Obama sure did." Seth Myers, SNL)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

So... This would be big if the swing back to Obama +5 was in the likely voter tally. But it’s in the registered voter tally, which today already has Obama +3. So the swing isn’t that big of a deal... especially considering it was a small sample size that includes Sunday.


7 posted on 10/09/2012 1:51:14 PM PDT by TBBT
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Ah, but since registered voters are irrelevant at this point, what’s his “lead” among “likely” voters?


8 posted on 10/09/2012 1:51:52 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut
Leave it to Allahpundit to piss on a party. I refuse to read him. He’s a perpetual eeyore.
********************************************

He is an eeyore. That's why Gallup doesn't have a 36 hour tracking poll. It has a seven day tracking poll.

9 posted on 10/09/2012 1:53:22 PM PDT by kara37
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Gay State Conservative

Today is the 1st day Gallup publishes Likely Voters as opposed to just Registered voters. Likely voter polls are much more accurate. Why Gallup insists on clinging to this obsolete methodology of Registered Voter polls is a mystery.


10 posted on 10/09/2012 1:53:34 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Today is the 1st day Gallup publishes Likely Voters as opposed to just Registered voters. Likely voter polls are much more accurate. Why Gallup insists on clinging to this obsolete methodology of “Registered Voter polls” is a mystery.


11 posted on 10/09/2012 1:55:06 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: TBBT

Someone needs to tell allahpundit the Gallup gap is down to 3. But among likelies, Romney leads by 2.


12 posted on 10/09/2012 1:57:52 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

he is just repeating what he read on Slate.


13 posted on 10/09/2012 1:59:37 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: TBBT
registered voters...too lazy and irrespomsible to even watch the debate probably - never mind....
14 posted on 10/09/2012 2:05:09 PM PDT by Intolerant in NJ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: LS

Gallup’s spin here does not even make sense when examining the numbers. Romney gained 2 points last night in the registered voter poll. Rather than suggest that the debate bump is fading, it suggests that Sunday’s numbers were an unusually good night for 0. In other words, an aberration. The pro-Romney trend is confirmed by the fact that he gained 2 in the RV poll with Monday’s sample included.


15 posted on 10/09/2012 2:18:40 PM PDT by Arthurio
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: ScottinVA

He’s asserting that the gap is up to five among those polled in the past 36 hours; you’re citing the 7-day rolling average. Big difference. However, it’s usually foolish to split a poll like allahpundit has done: the reason Gallup uses 7-day rolling averages is to increase the accuracy of the poll. The 36-hour bump is more likely statistical noise... but of course something to watch.


16 posted on 10/09/2012 2:48:19 PM PDT by dangus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson