Skip to comments.SurveyUSA: With Voting Underway In Oh-So-Important Ohio, Romney Nose-to-Nose with Obama:
Posted on 10/10/2012 3:59:16 AM PDT by Arthurio
In an election for Ohio's 18 vital electoral votes today, 10/09/12, one week after Buckeye voting began and 4 weeks till votes are counted, Barack Obama is at 45% to Mitt Romney's 44%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCMH-TV, NBC4 in Columbus. Obama's advantage is within the survey's possible sources of error and may or may not be significant.
(Excerpt) Read more at surveyusa.com ...
Columbus is a big university town.
This election will be decided by the Paulistinian / Gary Johnson vote.
The Republican party may have died on August 24, 2012.
One thing about the “polling” indicating which candidate leads is that everyone now has caller ID - this in itself makes the results suspect. Many of us who work all day come home, look at what is clearly a political call and simply don’t pick up the phone. it is entirely possible that those who live off the dole, or those who are strongly pro-union are more likely to pick up the phone simply because they have the time to kill or feel that everyone is entitled to their opinion.
Like many people, I have gone for the last month rarely answering the phone - when I did it turned out to be a pollster. I may be wrong on this entire point, but one can’t help but wonder . . . .
Absentees in Franklin were running 6000 R AHEAD IN A COUNTY ZERO WON BY 21 points.
This SurveyUSA poll imbeds a +6 Democrat advantage, almost as large as ‘08. Ergo, it finds that the Democrats will again win this state. But, the partisan composition of the electorate in this state swings a lot from one election to another, and we have lots of anecdotal evidence it has swung in favor of the Republicans in this election. For example, in this very poll, the Independents are strongly in favor of Romney. Historically, the partisan composition of the electorate swings along with the way the Independents vote. So, a +6 Democrat advantage is not believable.
Dems registration in Ohio is down near 400,000 voters since 2008, he only won by 270,000, where they are getting this D+6 from ,i dont know, it was R+1 in 2010.
Translation: Romney is ahead by 10+ in Ohio.
Ohio will not be D+6 in 2012 and if he’s only level pegging on a D+6, Romney wins this easily, look at the independent advantage, Obama is only taking 35% of independents....no way you win with that low a indie score.
thats one of the big counties to. I have been sharing this info with as many folks as possible. A lot of Ohio friends and family believed Obama would win judging by the ‘news’ I have most convinced otherwise and even a few volunteering for Romney around Hamilton and Butler counties.
and considering a lot of 08 dems are 12 indies. Not looking good for obama
yes independent registration in Ohio is up a solid 500,000, dems down almost 400,000 and Obama is only taking 35% of independents in that survey, i don’t see how Obama wins Ohio, its just not possible with those 2 bits of info, if Romney takes the independents in Ohio by a bit and dem advantage is down, its just not possible for Obama to pull this out.
Unless those 500,000 are not really independants.
This is good news! Take a look at the internals. There is only a 1 point advantage to the Dems when you consider only R/D. But, when you take a look at the independents, which most polls consider around 30% of the likely vote, you see Romney with a large lead. Translation: Romney is actually ahead if the poll used accurate sampling for Ohio.
This is HUGH and SERIES!
Actually, it is huge news. In 2008 McCain actually defeated Obama in votes cast on election day. Obama’s victory cam from the early votes where he obliterated McCain and built an insurmountable lead. If Romney keeps it tied until election day, Obama is in trouble. The GOP GOTV is fired up here in the Buckeye State.
Yes, 2010 R+1. But, this is a Presidential. We might not repeat that number. I’m assuming net zero for this state. Based on net zero, we’re about 2 points ahead, and have been for six weeks. Given all the other information that’s out there, I’m feeling pretty good. Go Buckeyes!