Nevada Presidential Race Too Close to Call (D+7)

8-News Now ^ | October 10, 2012 | Steve Kanigher

[JerseyanExile]

The presidential race in Nevada is a virtual flip of the coin, with President Barack Obama holding a slim 47 percent to 46 percent lead over challenger Mitt Romney among likely voters, an 8NewsNow/Las Vegas Review-Journal poll released early Wednesday morning shows.

The statewide bilingual cell phone and landline poll, conducted by SurveyUSA of Clifton, N.J., involved 1,222 likely Nevada voters who were queried following the first presidential debate between Democrat Obama and Republican Romney in Denver on Oct. 3. The poll, with a 2.9 percent margin of error, also found that 3 percent favored other candidates and 4 percent were undecided.

The latest poll represents a slight narrowing from an 8NewsNow/Review-Journal poll conducted in August, at which time Obama held a 47-45 advantage. In 2008, Obama won Nevada by 12 percentage points over Republican John McCain.

The new poll found that Romney and Obama each were viewed favorably by 44 percent of respondents. But Obama was viewed unfavorably by 46 percent of those polled, versus 43 percent who had an unfavorable opinion of Romney. That translates to a favorable rating of plus one for Romney and minus two for Obama. In August Romney had a favorable rating of minus seven and Obama was at minus five.

Obama enjoys an advantage over Romney in these demographics: women, 52 to 43 percent; 18- to 49-year-olds, 51 to 40 percent; blacks, 81 to 14 percent; Hispanics, 54 to 41 percent; Democrats, 84 to 11 percent; moderates, 57 to 36 percent; liberals, 80 to 14 percent; non-military/veteran households, 52 to 41 percent; those who never went beyond high school, 53 to 39 percent; those who earn less than $40,000 annually, 56 to 37 percent; and suburban Clark County, 51 to 41 percent.

[JerseyanExile]

Probably the most interesting thing here is the voting shift for blacks and hispanics - Obama's advantage is only 81-14, and 54-41. In 2008, the numbers in Nevada were 95-5, and 78-20 respectively.

[TigerClaws]

That is amazing. Both those groups have been hardest hit by Obamanomics.

[epluribus_2]

I kind of Miss Tim Russert’s Chalkboard these days. Gonna get easier to make victory puzzle as this keeps up.

[Yashcheritsiy]

This poll actually had a fairly decent partisan split, compared to the Rasmussen numbers for NV from earlier in the summer. Did a readjustment, and got 47.8% Romney vs. 47.2% Obama, WELL within the MoE for this poll. I can believe it really is a horserace in NV.

[God luvs America]

if you click on the link then click on the first graph Romney has an 8pt edge (47-39) in independents....these numbers are also striking:

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Obama enjoys an advantage over Romney in these demographics: women, 52 to 43 percent; 18- to 49-year-olds, 51 to 40 percent; blacks, 81 to 14 percent; Hispanics, 54 to 41 percent; moderates, 57 to 36 percent;

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just a 9% edge for obama from women and barely over 80% from blacks??? the moderate number seems way off and does not jive with the independents #...sounds like a lot of libs were to embarrassed to call themselves libs and backed out by claiming they are “moderates”....

[Tulane]

What was the partisan split in 2004 and 2008?

[DaxtonBrown]

I’m in Vegas. If they did a bilingual poll, my guess is they over sampled Hispanics, who are predominantly illegals here. They don’t vote, though they may respond to a poll.

[Yashcheritsiy]

I don’t know offhand. The survey I saw from earlier this year has Nevada with a partisan split of 42% D / 37% R, while the demos on this poll were 40% D / 33% R. BOTH parties were actually undersampled (the Rs a little more), and I’s were oversampled.

[jennychase]

Union makes them vote.
Obama is below 50%, he will lose NV. Only Union can save him, and they will.

[GnL]

There’s that 47% again. Hmmm.

[relictele]

Why would they answer the phone in the first place?

I’m guessing they aren’t fugitive PhDs.

[Tulane]

Many thanks