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Intrade O62%/R38% (vanity)
tatown | 10/10 | tatown

Posted on 10/10/2012 11:25:05 AM PDT by tatown

With the race obviously trending to Romney in a very strong way, how in the heck can Intrade still be showing Obama as a 3 to 2 favorite?? Unless I'm looking at things through total rose colored glasses, it makes no sense!


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; intrade
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1 posted on 10/10/2012 11:25:07 AM PDT by tatown
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To: tatown

Why would you care?


2 posted on 10/10/2012 11:27:11 AM PDT by wiseprince
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To: tatown

Take advantage of it. Where else are you going to get a 120% 30 day investment.


3 posted on 10/10/2012 11:27:43 AM PDT by azcap (Who is John Galt ? www.conservativeshirts.com)
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To: wiseprince

buy Romney


4 posted on 10/10/2012 11:28:10 AM PDT by Elpasser
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To: tatown

Intrade also forecast a 90% failure of Obamacare at the Supreme Court. 90%!


5 posted on 10/10/2012 11:28:16 AM PDT by GilGil
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To: tatown
What's the trend? O was close to 80 prior to the debate. If this was a stock people would be talking about it's massive collapse:


6 posted on 10/10/2012 11:28:23 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: tatown

Very thin market. It wouldn’t take much to manipulate


7 posted on 10/10/2012 11:28:32 AM PDT by meatloaf (Support Senate S 1863 & House Bill 1380 to eliminate oil slavery.)
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To: tatown

Give it time. It was 75/25 last week.


8 posted on 10/10/2012 11:28:44 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: tatown

You’re getting your info here. They’re getting their info from the MSM. If it seems that counter-intuitive it’s time to jump in. Right before the debate it was about 80/20. Wish I had jumped in then.


9 posted on 10/10/2012 11:28:53 AM PDT by Bigjimslade
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To: tatown

Manipulated by leftists


10 posted on 10/10/2012 11:29:34 AM PDT by teletech (Say NO to RINOS!)
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Also I wouldn’t put it past the Obamaites to be working it as part of their “creating the inevitability impression”


11 posted on 10/10/2012 11:30:25 AM PDT by Crimson Elephant
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To: tatown

You can’t sell what no one will buy.


12 posted on 10/10/2012 11:31:07 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: tatown

Intrade is dominated by Europeans. They probably didn’t watch the debate or didn’t understand it.


13 posted on 10/10/2012 11:31:24 AM PDT by BarnacleCenturion
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To: BarnacleCenturion

Yeah I don’t think Obama understood it either.


14 posted on 10/10/2012 11:34:09 AM PDT by tatown ( FUMD, FUAC, and FUGB)
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To: tatown

One week ago it was 80:20.

So it’s moving in the right direction. Don’t be surprised if Romney is up before November!


15 posted on 10/10/2012 11:35:13 AM PDT by proudpapa
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To: tatown

: )


16 posted on 10/10/2012 11:35:22 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

It was O-67% R-33% the day PRIOR to their first debate. I remember because I posted an FR thread on the topic at that time. Wouldn’t surprise me if 0bama’s foreign funding is in part being used to buy many of his Intrade shares.


17 posted on 10/10/2012 11:35:32 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: tatown

It only reflects what most people think. According to the polls most people think The Disaster is not going to go down.

He is going to go down though, in a landslide.


18 posted on 10/10/2012 11:36:27 AM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: GilGil
Intrade also forecast a 90% failure of Obamacare at the Supreme Court. 90%!

Close. It got up near 80%


19 posted on 10/10/2012 11:36:45 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: tatown

I guess there is money to be made.


20 posted on 10/10/2012 11:39:15 AM PDT by Persevero (Homeschooling for Excellence since 1992)
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To: Bigjimslade

I bought Romney when he was at $4.19....should have cooled my jets for a bit.


21 posted on 10/10/2012 11:40:16 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: meatloaf

And do not discount outright fraud. Both in this exchange, and at the actual vote count. In many instances, the election outcome may come down to the official in each state responsible for the final tally of votes, most often, the office of the Secretary of State.

For somebody, the roof is going to fall in. Just depends on which end of the edifice in which you are standing.


22 posted on 10/10/2012 11:41:04 AM PDT by alloysteel ("You have attributed conditions to villainy that simply result from stupidity".)
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To: wiseprince
Why would you care?

*shakes head*

23 posted on 10/10/2012 11:42:39 AM PDT by cardinal4 (If Baraq Hussein Obama had a son he would look like Rageboy)
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To: tatown

Simple. The MSM conventional wisdom is that Romney received a boost from the debates, but it is unlikely to last. MSM conventional wisdom is often wrong.

If Romney holds his lead after next weeks debate, you will start to see a big Obama sell off.

You also need to study “support levels” such as in the stock market. The value of a stock will often hold up for a while, even after horrible news... but once it breaks through a support level, it goes into freefall. I suspect for Obama, that would be at 60.


24 posted on 10/10/2012 11:42:46 AM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Persevero

Intrade makes you send proof of citzenship along with lots of other information that I and many are not willing to share. For that reason the market is not used by many people.


25 posted on 10/10/2012 11:42:46 AM PDT by crosslink (Moderates should play in the middle of a busy street)
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To: tatown
Intrade is the equivalent of a bar bet, albeit hundreds of them, aggregated together.

It isn't difficult to manipulate the prices, because the "shares" are so thinly traded, and the market capitalization is so small. It's like a penny stock, only worse.

Legally, US residents are not even supposed to be able to bet at Intrade, so it will be predominately non-US residents.

I don't waste my time worrying about Intrade. Neither should you.

26 posted on 10/10/2012 11:44:05 AM PDT by justlurking (The only remedy for a bad guy with a gun is a good WOMAN (Sgt. Kimberly Munley) with a gun)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

My post had the chart in it but it has since disappeared...

O closed at 74 on Wednesday the 3rd. Closed at 66.9 on Thursday, a decline of 9.6% in one day. It has since dropped a total of 15% since the close before the debate.


27 posted on 10/10/2012 11:44:06 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: tatown

Keep in mind that Romney’s post-debate boost was only among living voters. Obama still dominates among fictional and dead voters.


28 posted on 10/10/2012 11:45:16 AM PDT by Pollster1 (Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. - Ronald Reagan)
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To: tatown

Remember InTrade is nothing more than formalized bar bets, it means nothing... OK on stuff relating to what the masses will do it means a little something, but not that much.


29 posted on 10/10/2012 11:46:39 AM PDT by discostu (Not a part of anyone's well oiled machine.)
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To: tatown

Look closer at the numbers, though. The number of trades is almost equal, give or take a few percentage points... the DOLLAR amounts only differ. Some big money bets are going on Obama. The little guys are going for Romney.


30 posted on 10/10/2012 11:48:37 AM PDT by Teacher317 ('Tis time to fear when tyrants seem to kiss.)
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To: tatown

In Trade will close the gap as time goes on I suspect.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2942872/posts?

Pollster calls Florida and Virginia for Romney

Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos said Tuesday that he’s stopped polling Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because he’s already concluded that President Barack Obama will lose those swing states.

“In places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red. We’re not polling any of those states again. We’re focusing on the remaining states,” Paleologos told Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly.


31 posted on 10/10/2012 11:51:47 AM PDT by deport
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To: tatown

I will take those odds. I would love to take money away from the 0bama bettors. I wish I had bet on Romney when he was down in the polls.


32 posted on 10/10/2012 11:52:46 AM PDT by forgotten man (forgotten man)
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To: tatown

My understanding is that its very difficult for an American to place a bet.

The odds are money odds, not an assessment. Thus more people are betting on O than R. Its that simple.

If you can place a bet, do it.


33 posted on 10/10/2012 11:55:31 AM PDT by SampleMan (Feral Humans are the refuse of socialism.)
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To: tatown
Obama Money.....YOUR taxdollars at work.

95% of the black vote is Obama, you know.....

34 posted on 10/10/2012 12:00:14 PM PDT by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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To: SampleMan

Yes, as Jimmy the Greek always pointed out when reminded of his wrong pick in Super Bowl III...His job is to even up the betting and not to predict the future.

And remember many Blacks gamble.


35 posted on 10/10/2012 12:01:58 PM PDT by Monterrosa-24 (...even more American that a French bikini and a Russian AK-47.)
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To: tatown

Intrade is not reliable..all they go on is how many people are buying the idea of Obama winning..its probably his supporters buying it..for goodness sake Intrade had OKC Thunder winning the NBA Championship..its just a going trend I wouldnt worry about them


36 posted on 10/10/2012 12:08:25 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: SampleMan

I was going to open an account a few weeks ago.

They wanted a copy of my utility bills to validate my address.

I told them thanks, but no thanks.


37 posted on 10/10/2012 12:12:01 PM PDT by chrisser (Starve the Monkeys!)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

I’vr got a little of Obama in me. Oh! Well.


38 posted on 10/10/2012 12:14:37 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: tatown

HAAA!!!


39 posted on 10/10/2012 12:17:26 PM PDT by MrB (The difference between a Humanist and a Satanist - the latter admits whom he's working for)
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To: Wyatt's Torch
My post had the chart in it but it has since disappeared...

Zero peaked on 30 September, at close to $8.

Go here and click on Advanced Chart or open the View All Un-Matched Predictions tab.

40 posted on 10/10/2012 12:18:45 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: SampleMan

[ My understanding is that its very difficult for an American to place a bet.

The odds are money odds, not an assessment. Thus more people are betting on O than R. Its that simple.

If you can place a bet, do it. ]

Dammit, how am I supposed to make back the 4K in “economy tax” that i lost this last year.....


41 posted on 10/10/2012 12:21:30 PM PDT by GraceG
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To: SampleMan

I wonder how the American bettors are placing thier cash bets in Las Vegas, Atlantic City, and across the border at Caliente in Tijuana. What are the odds where the Americans bet? My hunch is the Europeans are uninformed and are making stupid pro 0bama bets on Intrade. If you look at the presidential election like a football game, how could an experienced bettor put his cash on an easy 0bama win.


42 posted on 10/10/2012 12:22:39 PM PDT by forgotten man (forgotten man)
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To: forgotten man

intrade is EASY to manipulate, it has zero credibility.


43 posted on 10/10/2012 12:36:33 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE! http://www.senate.gov and http://www.house.gov)
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To: tatown
I've had a theory that George Soros may be manipulating it like he has done with currencies. He may believe Intrade and other betting markets feed back into the real world. He espouses a financial markets theory called reflexivity where perceptions end up affecting reality.
44 posted on 10/10/2012 12:38:00 PM PDT by lasereye
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To: tatown

Maybe Soros owns it.


45 posted on 10/10/2012 12:42:32 PM PDT by manic4organic (We won. Get over it.)
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To: tatown

Look at both charts: Obama down 20% in a week, Romney up almost 20% in a week, only the Iranian currency and Obama poll numbers have changed as much!


46 posted on 10/10/2012 12:47:37 PM PDT by big bad easter bunny (If it weren't for coffee I would still be living with my parents!)
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To: tatown

They consider voter fraud and the democRATs’ ability to recount an election until won.


47 posted on 10/10/2012 12:50:30 PM PDT by South40 ("Islam has a proud tradition of tolerance." - Barack Hussein Obama - Cairo, Egypt, June 4, 2009.)
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
It was O-67% R-33% the day PRIOR to their first debate.

I looked at Intrade almost immediately after the debate. It showed that it dropped that day from O-75% R-25% to O-67% R-33% immediately AFTER the debate. Their historical chart appears to show the big drop prior to the debate, that does not match my recollection or common sense. Fortunately, you don't have to take my word for it because the drop was noticed by FOX the morning after.

http://nation.foxnews.com/intrade/2012/10/04/obama-tanks-intrade-after-debate

48 posted on 10/10/2012 12:52:20 PM PDT by fireman15 (Check your facts before making ignorant statements.)
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To: BarnacleCenturion

That’s exactly right, Europe is still betting Obama will win. They are stupid and only get their news from the MSM. The offshore odds still have Romney at +170. a $100 bet pays you pays $170. That is down from +200 just yesterday. You can even bet the state races, and in FLA Romney is favored.


49 posted on 10/10/2012 1:02:27 PM PDT by Paddy Irish
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To: tatown

Intrade can’t be played without excruciating effort here in the United States. Outside this country, our news cycles have nothing beyond the MSM. They don’t get the alternative media like we do here.


50 posted on 10/10/2012 1:14:18 PM PDT by commonguymd (The enemy within is our MSM. War starts there imo. twitter @commonguymd)
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