Zero peaked on 30 September, at close to $8.
Go here and click on Advanced Chart or open the View All Un-Matched Predictions tab.
Posted on 10/10/2012 11:25:05 AM PDT by tatown
With the race obviously trending to Romney in a very strong way, how in the heck can Intrade still be showing Obama as a 3 to 2 favorite?? Unless I'm looking at things through total rose colored glasses, it makes no sense!
I bought Romney when he was at $4.19....should have cooled my jets for a bit.
And do not discount outright fraud. Both in this exchange, and at the actual vote count. In many instances, the election outcome may come down to the official in each state responsible for the final tally of votes, most often, the office of the Secretary of State.
For somebody, the roof is going to fall in. Just depends on which end of the edifice in which you are standing.
*shakes head*
Simple. The MSM conventional wisdom is that Romney received a boost from the debates, but it is unlikely to last. MSM conventional wisdom is often wrong.
If Romney holds his lead after next weeks debate, you will start to see a big Obama sell off.
You also need to study “support levels” such as in the stock market. The value of a stock will often hold up for a while, even after horrible news... but once it breaks through a support level, it goes into freefall. I suspect for Obama, that would be at 60.
Intrade makes you send proof of citzenship along with lots of other information that I and many are not willing to share. For that reason the market is not used by many people.
It isn't difficult to manipulate the prices, because the "shares" are so thinly traded, and the market capitalization is so small. It's like a penny stock, only worse.
Legally, US residents are not even supposed to be able to bet at Intrade, so it will be predominately non-US residents.
I don't waste my time worrying about Intrade. Neither should you.
My post had the chart in it but it has since disappeared...
O closed at 74 on Wednesday the 3rd. Closed at 66.9 on Thursday, a decline of 9.6% in one day. It has since dropped a total of 15% since the close before the debate.
Keep in mind that Romney’s post-debate boost was only among living voters. Obama still dominates among fictional and dead voters.
Remember InTrade is nothing more than formalized bar bets, it means nothing... OK on stuff relating to what the masses will do it means a little something, but not that much.
Look closer at the numbers, though. The number of trades is almost equal, give or take a few percentage points... the DOLLAR amounts only differ. Some big money bets are going on Obama. The little guys are going for Romney.
In Trade will close the gap as time goes on I suspect.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2942872/posts?
Pollster calls Florida and Virginia for Romney
Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos said Tuesday that he’s stopped polling Florida, Virginia and North Carolina because he’s already concluded that President Barack Obama will lose those swing states.
“In places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red. We’re not polling any of those states again. We’re focusing on the remaining states,” Paleologos told Fox News’ Bill O’Reilly.
I will take those odds. I would love to take money away from the 0bama bettors. I wish I had bet on Romney when he was down in the polls.
My understanding is that its very difficult for an American to place a bet.
The odds are money odds, not an assessment. Thus more people are betting on O than R. Its that simple.
If you can place a bet, do it.
95% of the black vote is Obama, you know.....
Yes, as Jimmy the Greek always pointed out when reminded of his wrong pick in Super Bowl III...His job is to even up the betting and not to predict the future.
And remember many Blacks gamble.
Intrade is not reliable..all they go on is how many people are buying the idea of Obama winning..its probably his supporters buying it..for goodness sake Intrade had OKC Thunder winning the NBA Championship..its just a going trend I wouldnt worry about them
I was going to open an account a few weeks ago.
They wanted a copy of my utility bills to validate my address.
I told them thanks, but no thanks.
I’vr got a little of Obama in me. Oh! Well.
HAAA!!!
Zero peaked on 30 September, at close to $8.
Go here and click on Advanced Chart or open the View All Un-Matched Predictions tab.
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