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LFR Poll: Prez, Senate Races Within Margin of Error (Pennsylvania now a toss up?)
Politics PA ^ | 10-10-2012 | Keegan Gibson

Posted on 10/10/2012 5:40:11 PM PDT by smoothsailing

October 10, 2012

LFR Poll: Prez, Senate Races Within Margin of Error

Written by Keegan Gibson, Managing Editor

A poll commissioned by conservative non-profit group Let Freedom Ring, Inc. and obtained by PoliticsPA shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney 47 percent to 45. Sen. Bob Casey leads Tom Smith 44 percent to 41.

The survey of 1,000 likely Pa. voters was conducted by Pulse Opinion Strategies on Oct. 8 via automated dials. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.

Obama holds a positive job approval rating, 51 percent to 48. His personal favorability is nearly identical, 50 percent to 48. Romney’s personal approval rating is split, 48 percent favorable and 48 unfavorable.

Obama wins women 49 percent to 43. Romney wins men 47 percent to 44. They split independent/other 36 percent each.

Casey leads women 48 percent to 40. Smith leads men 43 percent to 38.

Smith leads among independent/other voters 36 percent to 28.

Pulse is a subsidiary of Rasmussen Reports; it does the nitty gritty of conducting and processing their polls. So, for all intents and purposes, this can be looked at through the same lens as Rasmussen numbers. That means that its sample includes only households with landlines, not cell phones – something that critics contend can skew polls because they underrepresent younger voters, who tend to lean Democratic.

Rasmussen released a poll Wednesday, conducted Oct. 9, that showed a much healthier 51 percent to 46 percent margin for Obama in Pa.

Let Freedom Ring, Inc. is a conservative issue advocacy organization that works with Tea Parties. Its website describes it as, “a non-profit public policy organization committed to promoting Constitutional government, free enterprise and traditional values.”

All internal polls should be taken with a grain of salt. However, unlike most organizations or candidates that commission polls, Let Freedom Ring shared the survey’s crosstabs and poll questions with PoliticsPA.

The survey’s sample includes 53 percent women, 47 percent men. 45 percent of respondents identified as Democrats, 39 percent as Republicans and 15 percent other.

Here are some tidbits from the Presidential race:

77 percent of respondents said they watched the debate. 66 percent of those said Romney won.

Obama leads self-described moderates 55 percent to 31.

And here are some notable details from the Senate race:

Smith leads voters 65 and older by double digits, 52 percent to 41.

Casey has a wide lead among self-described moderates, 51 percent to 25.



TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; pennsylvania

1 posted on 10/10/2012 5:40:16 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: randita; jazusamo

PA poll ping!


2 posted on 10/10/2012 5:41:27 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Great billboard.

Also deadly accurate.


3 posted on 10/10/2012 5:42:01 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: fatima; st.eqed; xsmommy; Nowhere Man; South Hawthorne; brityank; Physicist; WhyisaTexasgirlinPA; ..

PA Ping!

If you want on/off the PA Ping List, please freepmail me. Thanks!


4 posted on 10/10/2012 5:54:43 PM PDT by randita
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To: smoothsailing

This is extremely rough mental math. I don’t know the internal numbers on these polls, but if we assume 30 percent of the electorate in Pennsylvania are independent, then look what happens. We know that 72 percent of independent voters in this poll are already committed, 36 for Obama and 36 for Romney. That leaves roughly 28 percent who would be classified as undecided and independent. I’ll round down just to make things easy, so we will that 25 percent of independent voters are still undecided. If independent voters are 30 percent of the overall PA electorate, that means about 7.5 percent of the electorate is independent and undecided. If those people break two to one for Romney, that adds a little over 5 points to Romney’s total, and roughly 2.5 points to Obama’s. With Obama currently up by 2 points, that would mean a Romney win. The larger the percentage of independents, the more Romney would presumably gain.


5 posted on 10/10/2012 5:56:29 PM PDT by RightFighter (It was all for nothing.)
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To: smoothsailing
Good news...After today's testimony on the Libya murders and lies from the WH on it, the Big Bird debacle by Obama’s cronies, the VP debate and the last two prez debates Romney and possibly Smith may have a very comfortable lead.
6 posted on 10/10/2012 5:58:15 PM PDT by jazusamo ("Intellect is not wisdom" -- Thomas Sowell)
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To: jazusamo

I agree Jaz, the Obama administration is unraveling before our eyes.

Before this is over with, Romney could sweep who knows how many states and we could get a Senate Republican majority.

We are certainly living in interesting times my FRiend!


7 posted on 10/10/2012 6:26:56 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks smoothsailing. And here's a link to a pulled topic, but the title is so effin' good we can't just let it go into that long night without acknowledgement:
8 posted on 10/10/2012 6:30:16 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: RightFighter
Independents are about 12% so Romney can only count on picking up a point or two there. He needs to peel more Reagan Democrats away from Zippo and boost his total Republican numbers. It's doable as long as Zippo and his traveling circus continue to implode.
PA Voter Registration and Party Enrollment as of June 28, 2010
Party Number of Voters Percentage
  Democratic 4,309,604 51.00%
  Republican 3,122,036 36.95%
  Unaffiliated 492,077 5.82%
  Minor Parties 525,962 6.22%
Total 8,449,679 100%

9 posted on 10/10/2012 6:44:17 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Wake up people.

If....if Zero and Mittens were even tied right now, that would still mean a 5% margin of victory for Zero. It’s Pennsylvania.

“In play” would require a 5 point lead in the polls for Romney. Ain’t happening.

Herr Leader is going to get 125% of the black vote.


10 posted on 10/10/2012 7:03:25 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: ChildOfThe60s

“Herr Leader is going to get 125% of the black vote.”

Not as big of a deal as it is in many states. This is Pennsylvania....

28.5% German
18.2% Irish
12.8% Italian
9.6% African
8.5% English
7.2% Polish
4.2% French Canadian
2.9% Puerto Rican
2.2% Dutch
2.0% Slovak
2.0% Scotch Irish
1.7% Scottish
1.6% Russian
1.5% Welsh
1.2% Hungarian
1.0% West Indian
1.0% Ukrainian
1.0% Mexican


11 posted on 10/10/2012 7:14:23 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

(Casey has a wide lead among self-described moderates, 51 percent to 25.)

Rush proves again that he is right that “moderates” are basically liberals.


12 posted on 10/10/2012 7:31:32 PM PDT by winner3000
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To: winner3000

Rush is right, no doubt about it.


13 posted on 10/10/2012 7:36:24 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing

Yeah, but you know what I mean about the fraud.


14 posted on 10/10/2012 8:04:58 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s....you weren't really there)
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To: All

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15 posted on 10/10/2012 8:14:41 PM PDT by musicman (Until I see the REAL Long Form Vault BC, he's just "PRES__ENT" Obama = Without "ID")
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To: ChildOfThe60s

I hear you, but your 5% figure is too high. Romney will need about a 30,000 vote margin statewide to avoid a mandatory recount. 1/2 of 1%. If he does better than that, the Dems would pay for the challenge.

I would say a 100,000 vote margin would be real comfortable and well beyond the Dems ability to manufacture additional votes. That would be about a 50% Romney 48.5% Obama election outcome. 1.5%


16 posted on 10/10/2012 8:33:24 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing
There is a GREAT lawn sign here in Central NYState ...

2012: Obama vs. America

It captures the whole enchilada - supports conservative candidates up and down the ticket without mentioning a single one of them.

I'm wondering if that sign is anywhere else?

17 posted on 10/11/2012 4:55:16 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: jazusamo

CBS radio editorialists (I don’t mean talk show hosts, either) are screaming to high heaven about BenghaziGate. If this does not make a mark on the Obama administration polls, I will find a hat to eat. I bet that a real collapse will happen among independents, and that a band-wagon effect is going to favor Romney in the next weeks.

I am now starting to believe that this could end up on the order of a 57-43 win for Romney.


18 posted on 10/11/2012 4:59:48 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: AFPhys
TEANewYork-Niagara Patriots?


19 posted on 10/11/2012 6:21:29 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: ChildOfThe60s
If....if Zero and Mittens were even tied right now, that would still mean a 5% margin of victory for Zero. It’s Pennsylvania.

We got screwed on Voter ID, which was the only thing that would have kept fraud down to moderate levels.

Pennsylvania will go one of two ways: if Obama is within 5 points of Romney, the Dem fraud machine will go into overdrive, and will produce just enough votes for Obama to win.

If Romney is 6 points or more ahead, they may decide not to spend the money on shill voters, and Romney will win PA in a blowout. Republicans almost NEVER win on squeakers.

20 posted on 10/11/2012 6:30:05 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Charlie Daniels - Payback Time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWwTJj_nosI)
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To: AFPhys
East Randolph, NY


21 posted on 10/11/2012 6:41:53 AM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: smoothsailing; AFPhys

What a great sign, it says it all so simply!


22 posted on 10/11/2012 9:04:21 AM PDT by jazusamo ("Intellect is not wisdom" -- Thomas Sowell)
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