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Jay Cost: The State of the Race, Four Weeks Out
Weekly Standard ^ | 10/10/2012 | Jay Cost

Posted on 10/10/2012 5:42:28 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

So where are we, four weeks out? Romney suddenly finds himself with a lead in the polls, making liberals panicked and conservatives jubilant -- an interesting change of pace.

But I actually see more continuity than change here. And allow me to quote one pollster who has had a solid read on the true state of the race for months (he is also the only pollster who had an accurate read on Obama-McCain from the Lehman collapse onward, and the first to see the 2010 wipeout coming before anybody else).

[SNIP]

We have reached the point in the campaign where media reports of some polls suggest wild, short-term swings in voter preferences. That doesn’t happen in the real world. A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months. Since last week’s debate, the numbers have shifted somewhat in Romney’s direction, but even that change has been fairly modest. Still, in a close race, a modest change can have a major impact. Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other.

I think this is spot on. In fact, I would suggest five enduring truths about this election, all consistent with Rasmussen’s polling data.

[SNIP [SNIP]

But make no mistake: what we have here is a very close race in an evenly divided nation. Both sides should lock down 47 percent, and it will be a fight to the finish for the tiny sliver of the electorate that is truly up for grabs.

(Excerpt) Read more at weeklystandard.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: 2012; elections

1 posted on 10/10/2012 5:42:37 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

In short, 94% of the electorate have more or less made up their minds.

It is the 6% who are still undecided who will determine the victor.

Question: Historically, who do the undecideds break for?


2 posted on 10/10/2012 5:44:06 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

their wallets...


3 posted on 10/10/2012 5:47:51 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5 million pay no income tax and vote for DemoKrats...)
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To: SeekAndFind
And I don't buy it. The reason is, while we may have a "divided electorate," IBD poll today shows Romney with a 20 (!!!!) point lead among indies.

Now, folks, given R enthusiasm (which almost everyone except the bogus PPP says is higher than Ds) this translates to a 4-5% national lead, but in the electoral college this is a massive lead, because it would throw to Romney OH, IA, WI, NV, CO, VA, FL, NC, NH, and possibly MI.

Moreover, I think this so-called "close" race has been jimmied for months by the pollsters specifically to keep up the "invincible" Obama image to ensure he kept the money from business. And now that his balloon is punctured, businesses are starting to throw money at Romney.

4 posted on 10/10/2012 5:48:56 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: SeekAndFind
In short, 94% of the electorate have more or less made up their minds.

It is the 6% who are still undecided who will determine the victor.

Basically, exactly what Romney said in that secretly filmed "47%" video that the media made such a big deal about. Romney was right.

5 posted on 10/10/2012 5:49:11 PM PDT by Longbow1969
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To: SeekAndFind

According to someone (Dick Morris, I think) the “undecideds” tend to go 7-to-1 for the challenger.


6 posted on 10/10/2012 5:50:06 PM PDT by Steely Tom (If the Constitution can be a living document, I guess a corporation can be a person.)
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To: LS

” Moreover, I think this so-called “close” race has been jimmied for months by the pollsters specifically to keep up the “invincible” Obama image to ensure he kept the money from business. And now that his balloon is punctured, businesses are starting to throw money at Romney. “

Makes total sense.


7 posted on 10/10/2012 5:52:02 PM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: LS

In 2004, Jay Cost was the man to follow. Election night 2004, my stress was minimized as I followed Jay’s blog and read his reports of county-by-county turnout.

Anyway, all I’ll say is that agree with your take more than his at this point and I will leave it at that.


8 posted on 10/10/2012 6:02:40 PM PDT by wolf24
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To: SeekAndFind

This won’t be close. The bubble has burst for The Disaster. His abysmal performance woke a lot of people up.


9 posted on 10/10/2012 6:11:18 PM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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To: arrogantsob

I think this Libya thing will get legs. It will be the excuse the MSM will need to turn on the Obozo. Suddenly we will “discover” Fast and Furious, etc.


10 posted on 10/10/2012 6:34:20 PM PDT by technically right
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks SeekAndFind. 47 again:
...Romney suddenly finds himself with a lead in the polls... But I actually see more continuity than change here. And allow me to quote one pollster who has had a solid read on the true state of the race for months (he is also the only pollster who had an accurate read on Obama-McCain from the Lehman collapse onward, and the first to see the 2010 wipeout coming before anybody else)... A more realistic assessment shows that the race has remained stable and very close for months... Over the past 100 days of tracking, Romney and Obama have been within two points of each other 72 times. Additionally, on 89 of those 100 days, the candidates have been within three points of each other... Both sides should lock down 47 percent, and it will be a fight to the finish for the tiny sliver of the electorate that is truly up for grabs.

11 posted on 10/10/2012 6:39:00 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: technically right
the msm will not turn on zero. They have to go all in because they know if their man losses, they are locked out of the WH for 4 years
12 posted on 10/10/2012 6:42:47 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: technically right
the msm will not turn on zero. They have to go all in because they know if their man losses, they are locked out of the WH for 4 years
13 posted on 10/10/2012 6:42:57 PM PDT by paul51 (11 September 2001 - Never forget)
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To: paul51

Will Hillary throw Obama to the wolfs? Someone knows the truth about Obama and who he really is.


14 posted on 10/10/2012 6:48:04 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: paul51

Will Hillary throw Obama to the wolves? Someone knows the truth about Obama and who he really is.


15 posted on 10/10/2012 6:48:32 PM PDT by FreedBird
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To: SeekAndFind

Jay Cost comes on the Lee Davis show in Birmingham Alabama about once a week. A very smart and entertaining guy to listen to.


16 posted on 10/10/2012 7:01:21 PM PDT by wareagle7295
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To: LS

Agreed!!


17 posted on 10/10/2012 7:03:49 PM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: LS

Agreed!!


18 posted on 10/10/2012 7:03:54 PM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Don’t see any way, based on some other articles and polling, that Obama gets to 47. Some have him at 41, some even say he won’t break 40. Maybe that’s wishful thinking but have seen the case made.


19 posted on 10/10/2012 7:10:50 PM PDT by John W (Viva Cristo Rey!)
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To: John W

Scary part is that some 47% of the electorate would vote to re-elect this guy. Rush said the U.S. could survive a second Obama term, but not an electorate that would re-elect him.


20 posted on 10/10/2012 7:21:50 PM PDT by MovementConservative (Go Mariners! 2013!)
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To: LS

That is an astute observation. The media overstated Obama support to keep him afloat and build his support and energy.
The ‘Obama is winning’ creates a bandwagon effect, and it was ALMOST close to becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.


21 posted on 10/10/2012 7:52:46 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Poll Ping.


22 posted on 10/10/2012 7:52:46 PM PDT by Jet Jaguar (The pundits have forgotten the 2010 elections.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Jay is exactly right... the undecideds are the morons who just want to vote for the perceived “winner.”


23 posted on 10/10/2012 8:32:57 PM PDT by Katya (Homo Nosce Te Ipsum)
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To: SeekAndFind

Barry’s going to be lucky to get 40%. Not close with actual voters.


24 posted on 10/10/2012 8:39:47 PM PDT by Jabba the Nutt (.Are they stupid, malicious or evil?)
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To: John W

Obama has rarely polled above 47% and rarely below 42%. He has a stable set of koolaid drinking supporters. On this Romney was correct.


25 posted on 10/10/2012 9:27:05 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: LS; MovementConservative
I don't buy it. The reason is, while we may have a "divided electorate," IBD poll today shows Romney with a 20 (!!!!) point lead among indies. Now, folks, given R enthusiasm (which almost everyone except the bogus PPP says is higher than Ds) this translates to a 4-5% national lead, but in the electoral college this is a massive lead, because it would throw to Romney OH, IA, WI, NV, CO, VA, FL, NC, NH, and possibly MI.
That, and the fact that we expect the undecideds to break for the challenger.
Moreover, I think this so-called "close" race has been jimmied for months by the pollsters specifically to keep up the "invincible" Obama image to ensure he kept the money from business. And now that his balloon is punctured, businesses are starting to throw money at Romney.
Scary part is that some 47% of the electorate would vote to re-elect this guy. Rush said the U.S. could survive a second Obama term, but not an electorate that would re-elect him.

20 posted on October 10, 2012 10:21:50 PM EDT by MovementConservative

. . . so although there is every reason to expect a strong Romney win in the EC, we also have to be on tenterhooks about the country even with a Romney win. And lest we forget, Romney is still Mitt Romney - and we are far from out of the woods with him in the WH. It’s just that compared to Obama, Mitt Romney sounds like Ronald Reagan!

26 posted on 10/11/2012 5:28:36 AM PDT by conservatism_IS_compassion (The idea around which “liberalism" coheres is that NOTHING actually matters except PR.)
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To: LS

My take is similar to yours. The debate got Romney rolling, and now that the Dinosaur media are realizing that Obama et al lied to them about BenghaziGate and are turning on him due to that and his campaign’s foolish “strategy” of keeping the first debate alive with “Big Bird” ads, the bandwagon is going downhill, picking up speed. The bloom is off the rose.

I think that if Ryan&Romney simply are “even” in these next debates, it is getting to feel like we may be talking on the order of a 57-43 victory now. I know that is crazy talk right now, but that is what it is feeling like to me.


27 posted on 10/11/2012 5:40:12 AM PDT by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: technically right

I don’t see that ever happening but I hope you are right.


28 posted on 10/11/2012 9:41:53 AM PDT by arrogantsob (The Disaster MUST Go. Sarah herself supports Romney.)
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