Skip to comments.NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Gains In Key Swing States [OH: 2/3 Early Voting for Obama?}
Posted on 10/10/2012 9:59:34 PM PDT by Steelfish
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll: Romney Gains In Key Swing States By Domenico Montanaro A week after President Barack Obamas lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.
Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last weeks poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the polls margin of error.
In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.
In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governors strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. Thats a 2-point uptick for Romney.
But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last weeks poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)
One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.
(Excerpt) Read more at firstread.nbcnews.com ...
LoL. LSD News for the OBot.
The Official Threat to the Voting Franchise of all American citizens is being Hijacked. Early voting is the first step to double voting. We can’t afford to re-elect this President. Holder only remains in office, because he’s partisan and willing to take the heat because the ultimate goal is revolution. With the nation’s police forces and military behind him Zero will never leave office.
Anything from the Obama kiss ass Network I wouldn’t believe..NBC is the biggest bunch of Obama homers I’ve ever seen
This extremely early voting is BS. I’m fine with a week before, but 5 weeks? More opportunity for fraud.
Ohio Dems rushing to vote early for Obama before his next debate performance changes their minds.
Poor Steelfish, been a bad week huh? You finally found something in the polls/voting you can post that looks bad for Romney. Too bad it’s wrong.
It’s very much big fraud waiting to happen. There is NO REASON WHAT SO EVER people need to vote over a month away.
Ohio early voting ping!!
Then there are the real numbers: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/08/Romney-Leads-Absentee-Florida
And the reported poll's party breakdown as follows:
D= 39% LoL.
This polling firm is not good.
Most accurate final polls in 2008 election
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
Over 1/2 of respondants were from Cleveland and Cinci...
Party breakdown d=40% r=29% i=29%
Whole poll is BS!
The 2/3 early vote for Obama simply tells me that NBC has gotten a very skewed sample.
Even the Obama campaign came out today and said they were only “up a couple of points”. No way that actually translates into 63% of early votes going for the Kenyan.
I do think Ohio is our biggest challenge this election, but if Romney takes it, he is our next President.
I trust Rasmussen the most and I have already see the polling which shows Romney either tied or leading..I think Romney is winning Ohio, especially the sheer panic I am seeing from my leftist facebook friend who lives in Ohio(I had no idea at the time she was a leftist otherwise I would have never added her) but her facebook postings begging people in Ohio to vote for Obama tells me they are in panic mode..she also posted a photo of one of Obama’s many Ohio campaign offices(The one she volunteers at) and it was EMPTY, not one single person in sight
Yesterday, we heard that Romney was ahead in early vote returns in every state that started voting.
Romney is ahead everywhere, now, even in PA, as of tonight and they are still oversampling Democrats by 8 points.
If I’d looked at who started the thread, I never would’ve clicked on it.
Same old tiresome crap.
The march Forward to early voting, taken to its natural extreme, leads to “one man one vote” where you vote once for all future elections.
So the Florida vote they over sampled the Dems by 2 points’ with 20% independents!!!
Ohio they over sampled the Dems by 12% with 29% independents!
Virginia they over sampled by 2% However there are 40% independents..
Marist has been producing pro Obama outliers all year long.
What they didn't tell you is Cleveland schools loaded Senior High students on buses and took them to register to vote and vote this past week. During the recent early voting, you could register and vote on the same day. How much illegal voting has happened is anyone's guess and how many Seniors voted democrat to raise the taxes on the school levy is a good question too.
While I am all for teaching kids about voting, they clearly have no idea about the ramifications of voting on the school tax levy. I have no problem with them being encouraged to register to vote either, but since the schools are often closed on election day...they can find their own motivation to get to the polls.
Hundreds Register to Vote Before Deadline
About 200 Cleveland school students who just turned 18 organized a trip to the Board of Elections to register.
It felt real good to know that I could vote for the first time, 18 and thats what I consider myself of being proud of, really proud that I voted, said one student.
My county co-chair said that early voting in Montgomery Co was a huge bust. The Dems had three full floors ready for the register and vote crowd. They expected thousand. Got 1400. That’s not enough.
Romney up 8 points over O in indies in OH, a +R state, and trails? Not plausible.
In ABSENTEES in OH, I think total Ds are up-—but you can look at the OH absentee thread and add I up. But few realiz that McCain won OH and most battleground states on Election Day. It is just a matter of keeping it close til them.
You can repeal the 26th Amendment right along with the 19th.
Maybe so they can vote 3 or 4 times before the election.
Any relation to the Marxist Poll that's been dominating the airwaves of late?
Most accurate final polls in 2008 election
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
Thanks. Where did you get this list? My SIL (a hopeless lefty) sent me another ranking showing Rasmussen much lower, but I think that was based on all polls conducted in 2008, not just the final week’s polls etc. The point is I’ve always thought Rasmussen had very accurate polls, so was taken aback by a ranking that suggested a very different picture.
I voted yesterday in Iowa. Was surprisingly pleased with the security of the process.
One benefit of voting early: The campaigns stop calling you because they know you have already voted.
This from another forum...
“Ohio is going to be huge. Tons of Steelworkers are headed to Ohio for last minute campaigning. “
FreedomWorks has been here for a month on our side.
Party ID for Ohio in this poll
Party ID is D +11 (Dem 40, Rep 29, Ind 29)
2008 was D +8 (Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30) 2004 was R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25)
UnSkewed Avg. 9/24 - 10/4
Very good considering the D+3 skew and the fact this goes back to 9/24 before the debate!
In my state they must be counting voter fraud because I have still not seen one bozo sign yet and about on average 3 bozo stickers a week on a car.
Contrast this to Romney signs which are all over, stickers on cars about 7 a day
Honest question...What controls are in place to keep them from tossing your ballot in the trash? If they know it’s your ballot and which party you’re registered with, they can assume with about 85% accuracy the candidate voted for.
You can scan the RCP list of 2008 polling from just before the election and going back into time......
Well I have undeniable proof that this is poll is quite a bit off: George Mason University keeps track of Ohio early voting ballots returned, and so far only 119,000 (or 2.1% of all votes cast in 2008) have been returned....yet this poll claims 18% of ohio has already voted early. Sorry but they’ve screwed this poll up big time somehow.
Furthermore the electorate is not going to be MORE democratic than in 2008 - it will likely be somewhere between 2008 and 2010 levels, maybe d+2 or 3