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Rove: The Dividends of Romney's Debate Victory
The Wall Street Journal ^ | October 11, 2012 | Karl Rove, former Dep. WH Chief of Staff

Posted on 10/10/2012 10:06:19 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

How big an impact did Mitt Romney's performance in last week's debate have? Huge. Mr. Romney not only won the night, he changed the arc of the election—and perhaps its outcome. Surveys have him leading the RealClearPolitics average of polls for the first time since securing the GOP nomination in mid-April.

Prior to Oct. 3, Mr. Romney trailed President Barack Obama by an average of 3.1 points in national polls tallied by RealClearPolitics. Since the debate, Mr. Romney now leads Mr. Obama in the RCP average by a point, 48.2% to 47.2%, and the bounce is likely to grow. By comparison, Sen. John Kerry was widely seen to have bested President George W. Bush in the first 2004 debate (held on Sept. 30 of that year), but he never led in the RCP average in October.

In seven of the past nine presidential debate series, the challenger has gained more in the polls than the incumbent (or the candidate of the party in power). The first debate generally frames the series and establishes whether the bounce will be large or modest. Mr. Romney's bounce is significant.

It's unlikely that Mr. Obama will do as poorly next Tuesday at Hofstra University in New York. His supporters are demanding that he be more aggressive. He will be, telling AM radio's Tom Joyner on Wednesday that he'd been "too polite" in the first debate.

But if the president is as angry and negative in the Oct. 16 debate as he has been on the campaign trail the past week, he will damage himself again. It's hard in a town-hall format like next week's to attack, and too easy to come across as mean and nasty...

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; 2012debates; debate; debates; obama; polls; romney; rove

1 posted on 10/10/2012 10:06:22 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: FlingWingFlyer

It has to be pretty close for voter fraud to be effective. It ain’t gonna be close. I’d be surprised, at this point, if Mr. Obama wins 10 states. There is NO state that belonged to the confederacy, had units in the confederate army or is any kind of energy producer that will go to the Democrats.


3 posted on 10/10/2012 10:13:11 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Quite the knife twister, Rove is.


4 posted on 10/10/2012 10:16:50 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (This stuff we're going through now, this is nothing compared to the middle ages.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I love this ad made of clips from the debate. Obama is smirking while Romney attacks his horrible record on the economy.

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV?id={071B255A-01DA-468F-816F-6368B4411EFE}&title=RNC-Ad-Smirk


5 posted on 10/10/2012 10:21:35 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Romney was just like we hoped Newt might have been in a debate with Obama.

It was Bambi vs Rom-Zilla.


6 posted on 10/10/2012 10:24:10 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Obama is evil, he just doesn’t dislike Romney, he hates his guts. I have a feeling Obama again, is going to have a tough time hiding it. I think Romney is going to do good again. The way Obama acted during the first debate was driven by hate, Obama, despite all the propoganda, is not a likeable person. He’s a radical with lots of anger. Romney is good natured yet strong. Romney speaks straightforward, whereas, Obama speaks in platitudes that doesn’t mean anything. Against Romney, Obama is lost. I don’t think Obama will be able to do well against Romney in the next debate either, cause his hatred is too intense, he will not be able to hide it, no matter what he does. Good, let people see Obama for what he is, he is no nice guy.


7 posted on 10/10/2012 10:25:20 PM PDT by rodeo-mamma
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; FlingWingFlyer
It has to be pretty close for voter fraud to be effective. It ain’t gonna be close.

Praying for an undisputedly huge R+R win.

8 posted on 10/10/2012 10:27:48 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: rodeo-mamma

I had a similar conversation with my brother today. The debates were powerful, not especially because of the content of the debate, but it gave people the opportunity to see the two side by side. And the conclusions for all but the hardcore leftists were hard to ignore. I mean, Romney has been around for quite a while, but what do we really know about him? This and that, all the media blitz over felon, tax evader, corporate raider, grandma over the cliffer...and most of that type of propaganda was nullified by the side by side comparison. I’m not enormously enamored with Romney, but he’s unquestionably a very smart guy and a very decent human being. I’m not exactly thrilled with his quasi-conservative stance on things and I’m not thrilled about voting for less of two weevils, but 0bama must be defeated if the country is to survive and have some chance to escape from this bummed-out state.


9 posted on 10/10/2012 10:32:02 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (This stuff we're going through now, this is nothing compared to the middle ages.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Strangely, Rove said on FOX right after the debate that Romney would only get a 1 or 2 point bump in the polls. Not sure why this guy is still considered any kind of an election expert.


10 posted on 10/10/2012 10:33:05 PM PDT by JediJones (ROMNEY/RYAN: TURNAROUND ARTISTS ***** OBAMA/BIDEN: BULL $HIT ARTISTS)
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To: JediJones

Because historically, that is about all you can expect.

Other than Reagan, and maybe Kennedy, no other Presidential candidate has ever gotten such a bounce after a single debate.

So far, it seems to have some staying power. No doubt the MSM will try to spin Crazy Joe as the winner Thursday night, and then Obama the winner next week.

At that point, if Romney is still ahead, he should start feeling VERY good about his chances of being our next President.


11 posted on 10/10/2012 10:45:20 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: JediJones

Uh, because he won two presidential elections he wasn’t supposed to and has been at it since Youth for Nixon?


12 posted on 10/10/2012 10:55:17 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This wasn’t any quirk of fate. This is exactly the bruising that Barack was cruising for. The shellac was waiting for him and Mitt laid it on thick.


13 posted on 10/10/2012 11:17:27 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew (or is that lou?))
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To: JediJones
Not sure why this guy is still considered any kind of an election expert.

Because he's still under contract to FOX?

14 posted on 10/10/2012 11:20:15 PM PDT by Roccus
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To: comebacknewt

Millions of undecided seem to have gotten a “yes” answer to their question “is Mitt acceptable”.

I wonder if that old liberal, Lehrer, secretly enjoyed seeing the insufferable Barack being shellacked and just let Mitt do it.


15 posted on 10/10/2012 11:21:19 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew (or is that lou?))
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To: rodeo-mamma

I pretty much feel the same way. But the other aspect I keep on coming back to is that Obama is just not that good. All the debate prep in the world is not going to teach him how to handle a live audience without a TelePrompTer this later in the game.


16 posted on 10/11/2012 1:22:44 AM PDT by Ronin (Dumb, dependent and Democrat is no way to go through life - Rep. L. Gohmert, Tex)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I’d be surprised, at this point, if Mr. Obama wins 10 states.

Your lips to God's ears, FRiend.

Of course, if Obama wins 10 States, his crooked associates can fetch him five or six more, with the graveyard/Obamaphone vote.

17 posted on 10/11/2012 3:03:04 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: HiTech RedNeck; Kaslin
I wonder if that old liberal, Lehrer, secretly enjoyed seeing the insufferable Barack being shellacked and just let Mitt do it.

Did you see that fundraising/hortatory letter MoveOn or one of the other DemonRat NGO's sent out to members? They were livid. One of their beeves was that Lehrer failed to cut Romney off when he started lying again.

They literally think it's the moderator's job to Q.C. and police up the Republican nominee -- and presumably throw him out of the hall if he can't behave himself and accept all the liberal talking points as the bases of discussion.

18 posted on 10/11/2012 3:06:54 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Ping to my last. Thanx for the thread.


19 posted on 10/11/2012 3:09:10 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“It’s hard in a town-hall format like next week’s to attack, and too easy to come across as mean and nasty...”

But Townhalls are what dems are best at. They always have some sincere looking shills with prepared questions like, “After Bain Capital threw my Husband out of work and made me bear the child of a rapist, my son was diagnosed with chronosynclastic infindibulum and it costs a million dollars a day to keep him alive. Why do you want to kill him, Mitt Romney?”


20 posted on 10/11/2012 3:11:20 AM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder
I’m not enormously enamored with Romney, but he’s unquestionably a very smart guy and a very decent human being.

Well, that's not the point, is it? The point is, what are his policies, his values?

Conservatives and liberals agree that he is fuzzy in this area, and it's a major deficit for him -- a holdover from his runs at public office in Taxachusetts. But it's realistic to ask, "what does he really believe?" That's a fair question, and I think less of the GOP for offering the country a nominee so deficient in definition.

21 posted on 10/11/2012 3:13:08 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder
Quite the knife twister, Rove is.

Sure is. Especially when it's conservatives who get Rove's knife in the back.

22 posted on 10/11/2012 3:17:43 AM PDT by Fresh Wind ('People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook.' Richard M. Nixon)
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To: ModelBreaker
They always have some sincere looking shills with prepared questions ...

But they always give themselves away. They can't resist the fifteen minutes of fame, and the temptation to get rococo with it. Unlike Joe the Plumber, eg. Remember, Ms. Fluke was going to require the time and attention of the U.S. Congress -- as if she had something to contribute.

23 posted on 10/11/2012 3:22:23 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: HiTech RedNeck

“I wonder if that old liberal, Lehrer, secretly enjoyed seeing the insufferable Barack being shellacked and just let Mitt do it.”

The fact he came on Hannity the other night says so.......


24 posted on 10/11/2012 5:28:24 AM PDT by Republic Rocker
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Praying that Bammy Boy loses. It will be delicious seeing all those HollyWeird types, the big 0-donors like Clooney, being rebuffed plus Obama spending one trillion dollars to get rejected by the voters


25 posted on 10/11/2012 7:03:34 AM PDT by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: lentulusgracchus
Did you see that fundraising/hortatory letter MoveOn or one of the other DemonRat NGO's sent out to members? They were livid. One of their beeves was that Lehrer failed to cut Romney off when he started lying again.

More lies from the dims...seems that Obama had over 4 minutes speaking time over Romney in the debate.

Romney was cool, calm and collected.

Obama polaxed.

26 posted on 10/11/2012 7:24:32 AM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: Attention Surplus Disorder
I had a similar conversation with my brother today. The debates were powerful, not especially because of the content of the debate, but it gave people the opportunity to see the two side by side. And the conclusions for all but the hardcore leftists were hard to ignore. I mean, Romney has been around for quite a while, but what do we really know about him? This and that, all the media blitz over felon, tax evader, corporate raider, grandma over the cliffer...and most of that type of propaganda was nullified by the side by side comparison. I’m not enormously enamored with Romney, but he’s unquestionably a very smart guy and a very decent human being. I’m not exactly thrilled with his quasi-conservative stance on things and I’m not thrilled about voting for less of two weevils, but 0bama must be defeated if the country is to survive and have some chance to escape from this bummed-out state.

I agree.

I think a lot of people wanted to vote against Obama, but were unsure of Romney. The debate gave them comfort that Romney would be okay. And the polls have given even more people the idea that it's okay to vote against Obama. The liberals would like to make it seem as though you're racist of you don't back Obama, but that idea is getting pretty worn out, and Romney helped make the case why.

27 posted on 10/11/2012 7:33:30 AM PDT by Repealthe17thAmendment (Is this field required?)
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To: lentulusgracchus

What Obama calls “lying,” of course means giving an account from a different point of view. That’s what a genuine debate is supposed to be about, and if Mitt was really fibbing at the debate (and fact checkers said he mostly wasn’t, and I agree) it was up to Barack to call him on it.

Barack had more time to speak than Mitt and still failed to un-shellac himself.


28 posted on 10/11/2012 9:10:14 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew (or is that lou?))
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To: lentulusgracchus

Mitt is still a puzzle in many ways. Our esteemed Jim Rob has taken one of the most pessimistic views possible about Mitt, and there is no easy answer to such a view. Not with the continuing paucity of information suggesting something like a lasting change of heart from the days of Mitt’s Massachusetts policies. I hope the pessimism will prove unwarranted, of course. I hear there’s a Chinese restaurant in Fresno that prepares crow really well... and I think I know Jim Rob well enough to know that if Mitt exhibits a different walk as president, Jim would be the first to dig into that crow and declare that it tastes better than Chik-Fil-A.

But in the meantime I am unabashedly planning to be a clothespin nose voter. Straight R ticket.


29 posted on 10/11/2012 9:20:25 AM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew (or is that lou?))
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To: HiTech RedNeck

bump


30 posted on 10/11/2012 9:57:49 AM PDT by what's up
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To: Repealthe17thAmendment

Agree. We conservatives want Romney to come out, guns blazing, w/a conservative platform of clear ideas. And...we are typically disappointed by his fluffiness.

I stick to what I said about him being a decent, moral, and intelligent guy.

He is smart enough to know that he has to get elected. I think he thinks he has to go soft to get that done. Some would say....despite the evidence of the 2010 elections. So far, the great majority of his moves have been disappointing to conservatives but they have been **effective** in advancing the ball down the field, slowly, relentlessly. This is a characteristic of a longer-term thinking, canny businessman. For that, I give him a lot of credit in the tactical department. Failure here and he loses and this is all a moot point.

Now the question remains open, and nobody can predict this....is he smart enough to screw us or is he ONLY smart enough to screw us or is he smart enough to get elected or is he ONLY smart enough to get elected or is he ONLY smart enough to do both?

This is just something I cannot obsess over, because I can’t control it. I do know with perfect certainty; the country is dead meat with another 0bama term, and frankly, that’s all I need to know or be concerned about.


31 posted on 10/11/2012 10:48:29 AM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (This stuff we're going through now, this is nothing compared to the middle ages.)
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To: HiTech RedNeck; Jim Robinson
I hear there’s a Chinese restaurant in Fresno that prepares crow really well... and I think I know Jim Rob well enough to know that if Mitt exhibits a different walk as president, Jim would be the first to dig into that crow and declare that it tastes better than Chik-Fil-A.

LOL, well, I'm not worried about that -- the more I hear and read about Mittens and his Massachusetts regency for the Dims, the less chance I think there is that he will govern like a true Republican (a la Gerry Ford and Bush 43), much less walk a conservative walk; and still less again that Jim Robinson will be sampling the delights of Fresno's 'Crow Armistrand' or 'Corvo piccato ai vongole'.

32 posted on 10/11/2012 10:57:23 AM PDT by lentulusgracchus
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To: lentulusgracchus

A lot of intrigue swirls around Mitt. Whether he likes it or not he’s become the most prominent face of the Mormon “Church.” If Salt Lake City decides it’s best public relations for the LDS if Mitt puts on a clean living front, then that’s what they are going to lean on Mitt to do and he’ll probably do it. Oh to be a fly on the wall in Salt Lake City, when Mitt is on the horn to them.


33 posted on 10/11/2012 12:47:29 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew (or is that lou?))
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To: lentulusgracchus

By the way I was at a Chinese eatery in Illinois that served what looked like little birds. They were molded out of bean paste.


34 posted on 10/11/2012 12:55:32 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (let me ABOs run loose, lew (or is that lou?))
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