Skip to comments.Campaign donations in math... uh... arithemtic (Vanity)
Posted on 10/11/2012 12:04:07 AM PDT by leakinInTheBlueSea
A few quick numbers that come to mind on the resident's online donations...
First, some quick math starting from the US population and deducting those unlikely to or not allowed to contribute.
US population: ~310M under 18 yo: ~40M illegal immigrant population: ~20M 53% (over age 18) of 46M food stamp recipients: ~24M
The number of potential legal, and financially feasible campaign contributors is: ~225M for ALL political parties in all elections.
Taking the Rasmussen party identification polling data (37R, 34D, 29other), we'll make the generous assumption that food stamps recipients will break along the same party ID lines as the rest of the electorate and that their exclusion from this analysis would not affect the party affiliation of the remainder of the electorate.
So, 34% of 225M is 76.5M. We'll make another assumption... those that do not vote, do not contribute financially to a campaign... at least not in significant enough numbers to sway this analysis. which means roughly half are among 'reasonably potential' contributors: 38.5M
Now, there will be some unaffiliated and maybe a Republican or two that donate to Obama, but there will be MUCH larger numbers of Democrats that do not contribute, so I'll leave the total number untouched.
So, if we take the campaign at their word that A) nearly half of campaign donations are small donations (<$200), and that they are closing in on $1B in total donations, I'll estimate $500M in small donations. If September's numbers are consistent with the previous months, a rough order of magnitude estimate (based on $53 average 'small' donation) is ~10M small donations, or more than 1 in 4 'reasonably potential' contributors.
Is it conceivable the campaign has convinced over 25% of those that could be reasonably expected to contribute to actually do so? uh.. umm... uh... no. This just begs for a true statistical analysis. The numbers certainly indicate either foreign donations, or (more likely in my opinion) multiple thousands of small donations to hide the identity of a few large donors.
You picked up on something that made me laugh at Obama and the way he speaks like a child. When he was debating Romney... and he said “it’s simple arithmetic...” it became obvious that his level of understanding of economics is that of a grade-schooler, just by the use of that word, rather than “mathematics.” Rather revealing, to me, at least.
The math doesn’t lie!