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Rasmussen Daily Tracking: Thu: 10/11/12: R:47% O:48%: Obama -11%
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 10/11/2012 | Rasmussen Reports

Posted on 10/11/2012 6:39:55 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer

Thursday, October 11, 2012

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows President Obama attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide, while Mitt Romney earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. See daily tracking history.

Consumer confidence spiked immediately following last week’s jobs report which showed unemployment falling to 7.8%. However, after approaching the highest levels of 2012, the bounce quickly faded. Confidence today is back to the pre-jobs report level. Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Americans now believe the economy is getting better. That’s exactly the same as before the jobs report. Fifty-three percent (53%) believe it is getting worse.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; election; obama; rasmussen; romney
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A decline today. Fri, Sat and Sun have fallen off. However, Columbus Day (Mon) is still in. Tomorrow's poll will the last one taken fully on weekdays and PRIOR to the VP debate. So keep tuned in for that one. It will be a baseline poll which we can then compare to see how Paul Ryan moves the needle and then how Gov Romney moves the needle next week
1 posted on 10/11/2012 6:40:04 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
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To: SoftwareEngineer

This is with a D +5 sample.


2 posted on 10/11/2012 6:42:07 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Hoping this doesn’t portend another bad trend.

C’mon America... don’t drink the kool-aid again..


3 posted on 10/11/2012 6:42:07 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

I find Rassmussens D+5 sample very hard to stomach.

I think the poor guy is being blackmailed, or has been bought by a nice high dollar contract with the democratic communists in Chicago.


4 posted on 10/11/2012 6:43:12 AM PDT by o2bfree (All us minorities got us an Obamaphone!!!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

And also a very good and constant reminder that we have a ton of work to do before November 6. This is going to be a very tight race.


5 posted on 10/11/2012 6:43:19 AM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Statistical noise. Race is tied at 48%, at worst, which is still good, as the Marxist remains below 50%. VP debate will have minimal effect unless major gaffe occurs on either side.


6 posted on 10/11/2012 6:43:50 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: o2bfree

more people are catching on to the rasmoosen rollercoaster


7 posted on 10/11/2012 6:45:55 AM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: o2bfree

As I understand it, the D+5 sample is based on a dynamic model that averages self-response to party-identifaction over 21 days . . . thus going WAY back before the first debate. Since that debate, other polls have reported a dramaatic increase in “Republican” in those responses. You drop a few points from the D+5 and you have Romney well ahead, and in line with Pew, Gallup, and IBD.


8 posted on 10/11/2012 6:48:13 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: SoftwareEngineer; All

Some minor changes are expected. The trend is what you watch.

I would not be surprised to see a slight shift back to Obama but basically the race is tied. The independents will break for Romney in the last couple days.

I am still confident, much more so than normal.

In 2008.....it was very bleak by this point. We can win this easily, and we can win it big.


9 posted on 10/11/2012 6:49:29 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: o2bfree

I find Rassmussens D+5 sample very hard to stomach.

I think the poor guy is being blackmailed, or has been bought by a nice high dollar contract with the democratic communists in Chicago.
********************************************************

I also think he is trying to sell his monthly service. If one candidate runs away with it, no one would want to sign up. I think all these guys play with the poll numbers until it’s close enough to effect their credibility.


10 posted on 10/11/2012 6:51:31 AM PDT by kara37
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To: rwfromkansas
Some minor changes are expected. The trend is what you watch. I would not be surprised to see a slight shift back to Obama but basically the race is tied. The independents will break for Romney in the last couple days. I am still confident, much more so than normal. In 2008.....it was very bleak by this point. We can win this easily, and we can win it big.

I think even Rassmussen would agree with your point. Can't get elated or suicidal over one or even a few polls. The bottom line is Romney is creating some light between him and Obama. Its undeniable, if the election were held today Obama would lose, quite handily.

11 posted on 10/11/2012 6:57:53 AM PDT by pburgh01
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To: SoftwareEngineer

..if California is down to 14 points, the rest of the country is trending RED as well. It presently looks like Romney is at about 320 EVs. If Ryan cleans Bidens clock it may get worse...


12 posted on 10/11/2012 6:57:56 AM PDT by WalterSkinner ( In Memory of My Father--WWII Vet and Patriot 1926-2007)
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To: o2bfree; SoftwareEngineer; Perdogg; ScottinVA; Solson
I find Rassmussens D+5 sample very hard to stomach.

Why do we try so hard to explain away bad news? Ras weights his poll based on how people identify. There is no doubt that identifying with the Dems is generally more popular than with Republicans.

Easily, anyone should be able to see that Dem Leftists and "Undecideds" constitute a majority right?

Well, anyone who SAYS they are undecided after 3.9 years of Obama (whether they really are undecided or not) is an outright psychotic useful idiot.

THAT is what should give you stomach upset.

While "independents" may break more for Romney, "Undecideds" might as well be solid Dem votes.

OTOH, we do our best at FR to divide up the "good and bad" GOP/GOPe.....even though if we jettison the weak half of the party then Issa/Chaffetz etal don't have enough votes for chairing hearings like yesterday.

The Dems love the numbers and will take all the good and bad leftists they can co-opt.

13 posted on 10/11/2012 6:58:07 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: SoftwareEngineer

Wow! That is really disheartening... Can Americans REALLY be THAT stupid??

Or, rather.. are there REALLY THAT many Americans dependent on a government handout???

The answer to both of those questions scares the crap out of me.

Indeed... we have more work to do in the next month. Turnout, as always, will be the key.


14 posted on 10/11/2012 7:00:43 AM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them)
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To: Perdogg

I wonder why Ras switched to a D+5 sampling. He normally polls with a D+2 sample. According to information in his own website, 37% of the voters identify themselves as Reps, 33% identify themselves as Dems, the rest Indies and minor parties. Given this, shouldn’t Ras be polling R+4? If that’s what the current national Dem/Rep breakdown actually is according to his own firm?


15 posted on 10/11/2012 7:08:46 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: kara37

” I think all these guys play with the poll numbers until it’s close enough to effect their credibility.”

They get away with doing that because people just pay attention to the numbers, not the internals. And most wouldn’t understand the difference between polling registered voters vs. likely voters.

I saw an interview with Ras on FOX a month or so ago where he stated he would be using mostly registered voters until right before the election, then would use likely voter samples.

This statement was ignored by the interviewer and not followed up on for whatever reason.


16 posted on 10/11/2012 7:09:17 AM PDT by Heart of Georgia ("Together we will unite America and get this done" - Paul Ryan - August 11, 2012)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
Crap. What IS this? Romney can't gain any momentum in Ras lately. Damn.
And this early voting nonsense worries me.
17 posted on 10/11/2012 7:10:56 AM PDT by snarkytart
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To: sam_paine
Why do we try so hard to explain away bad news? Ras weights his poll based on how people identify.

Actually if you look at the numbers you might question that view.

Self ID is about R+2.6 according to Raz. The Rasmussen D/R/I is D+5. That's a pretty big difference of 7.6. I think Raz is just being cautious. I expect that the D+5 will drift down to a reality of perhaps D+1 or so in his model over the last weeks of the campaign. If we get a D+1 election, Romney will win in a romp due to his big margin with the Independents.

18 posted on 10/11/2012 7:12:04 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: MrChips

I still find it hard to understand how Rasmussen justifies using a D+5 model when his own party ID data says R+2 (actually, R+3 if you round up)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


19 posted on 10/11/2012 7:12:44 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Lincoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Party identification doesn’t correlate with turnout (at the national level). Ras is smart in his assertion that history should be his guide. He clearly sees that the D+8 model of 2008 is wrong, but he also is rational to believe the pendulum won’t swing to an R+4 as this would be unprecedented. I’m sure he uses surrogate measures of voter enthusiasm to refine his turnout model, and these are subject to change as we move closer to Nov 6. As of now, I don’t see much to juice up Dem enthusiasm over the next few weeks. I sense all my Dem friends are very quiet and UN-enthusiastic. The debate last week was a real blow to their collective solar plexus, and R&R simply need to hold the line over the next 3 debates and give nothing new that can rally the communists.


20 posted on 10/11/2012 7:14:32 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: o2bfree

I would suspect Rasmussen is afraid to show the real Romney lead. He does not want the lawsuit from David Axelrod. Romney wins big next month...........flaws and all. To paraphrase another old saying, “dammit he might be be a liberal, but at least he’s our liberal”.

Life as we know it ends for the United States if the America-hating marxist is put back in office. A GOP dominated House and probably Congress can keep Romney in line. No so with the marxist-in-chief.


21 posted on 10/11/2012 7:18:11 AM PDT by NKP_Vet
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To: snarkytart
This should make you feel better

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/10/11/romney-barnstorms-the-battleground-counties/comment-page-1/#comment-9096

Tonight, Romney will be campaigning in Buncombe Co NC.

22 posted on 10/11/2012 7:18:27 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Personal Responsibility

Yes, very odd. Do we know for sure that he is using a D+5 sample?


23 posted on 10/11/2012 7:18:37 AM PDT by MrChips (MrChips)
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To: sam_paine
Ras weights his poll based on how people identify. There is no doubt that identifying with the Dems is generally more popular than with Republicans.

Try to get educated... Rasmussen's party id shows a R+2.6 - so your theory is hogwash.

Summary of Party Affiliation
24 posted on 10/11/2012 7:19:33 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: BlueStateRightist

Thanks for your well reasoned response. I still think Ras’s latest D+5 is a bit excessive in favor of the Dems. I realize 2008 turnout factors come into play, however what annoys me the most is that 2010 turnout stats seem to mean NOTHING to ANY of the polling firms. And 2010 is more recent than 2008. Everyone is acting as if 2012 is 2008 all over again. And it isn’t. The economy sucks crap and Obama now has a record to defend. Obama should be toast if it’s still all about the economy, stupid, as James Carville once famously said.


25 posted on 10/11/2012 7:23:44 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: sam_paine
Good point. Listen, after election day and if the worst comes true and Obama wins, will we beat up pollsters who led us wrong?

I'd rather not get there. Let's just work our asses off with taking the polls in context(IOW using them to determine WHERE resources are best applied) to make sure Obama is defeated.

26 posted on 10/11/2012 7:27:05 AM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

I have to concur that I think D+5 is excessive. My gut (with nothing but anecdotal data) tells me that, which can always be wrong.

We talk a lot about demographic shifts here, but I don’t think there’s a huge difference in the electorate since 2004, when both parties were highly motivated and went to the polls in almost equal numbers.

I could see a D+2, but D+5 makes me suspicious.


27 posted on 10/11/2012 7:31:22 AM PDT by Kingosaurus
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To: o2bfree; Perdogg; P-Marlowe; jazusamo

Let’s say you had a dozen previous elections with an average of what percent voted Republican, Democrat, and other. It represented the history of these things.

Look at it like the baseball card of presidential elections.

Now we have THIS season. And this Season your guy is batting .315 but his baseball card says he is a lifetime .287 hitter. Based on that what kind of hitter would you say he is?

You have a history say of Dem +5 and you have a current voting public identifying as R+3.

What would you do that is most likely to be corrct at the time of the actual election?


28 posted on 10/11/2012 7:40:01 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

As an engineer, I would go with what is happening now.


29 posted on 10/11/2012 7:42:28 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

2010 voter turnout shouldn’t and won’t be used to fully guide 2012 turnout, as an interim election year, when there isn’t a presidential election, doesn’t typify a presidential election turnout. It is very rational to assume that the presence of Obama on the ticket this year will bring many more voters (who often support him) that wouldn’t turn out in 2010. The key issue is if, for example, blacks vote at 11, 12, or 13% of the total turnout. This variance with many groups who came out strongly in 2008 (blacks, young people, women, etc.) will basically determine the outcome. Turnout, really, is all that matters this year, and all the current data suggest that the GOP turnout will be stronger than average, and the Dem turnout weaker than average. This is why I predict Romney will win.


30 posted on 10/11/2012 7:42:34 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: xzins
I wish FR had an edit button, because I just thought of something. In 2008, we were shocked at the polls because the models were not historically supported and they ended up to be what had occurred in 2006.
31 posted on 10/11/2012 7:44:08 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Perdogg

Yes.

I’m not sure why a Dem enthusiasm advantage in 08 gave them an unprecedented D+8, but an obvious R enthusiasm advantage this time can’t give us even a D+1 or an E turnout.

That seems reasonable to me.


32 posted on 10/11/2012 7:47:34 AM PDT by Kingosaurus
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To: Perdogg

I would not. I’d come up with a formula that incorporates both.


33 posted on 10/11/2012 7:48:18 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Perdogg

Just saw this post. I think we might agree that some combination of the two makes sense. History + contempory somehow combined.


34 posted on 10/11/2012 7:50:05 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: SoftwareEngineer
However, Columbus Day (Mon) is still in

And just who was off work enjoying the extra dauy off? Teachers and government workers. Just sayin'...

35 posted on 10/11/2012 7:50:34 AM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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To: Kingosaurus

D+2 is Ras’s usual model. Wonder what caused him all of sudden to switch to D+5?


36 posted on 10/11/2012 7:51:06 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: InterceptPoint

“If we get a D+1 election, Romney will win in a romp due to his big margin with the Independents.”

This is a great point that everyone seems to gloss over. In the crosstabs of every poll I’ve seen, Romney has a lead among Indies. Some polls have the margin as low as R+5, others have the margin as high as R+20. It’s probably somewhere in-between — around +10 to +15. And last time around, the Marxist won Indies.

If it is a D+1 election and Romney wins Indies by only +10, I don’t see how he doesn’t end up at around 54-45 (1% to 3rd parties) in the national vote — and a margin that large could never be overcome in the electoral map.


37 posted on 10/11/2012 7:59:13 AM PDT by lquist1
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

Rasmussen uses a D+3, not D+5.

The exact party breakdown is D 39 R 36 I 25.
(This is basically a 6 point swing from his party affiliation survey which has R+2.6) Makes no sense to give Dems benefit of doubt.

Another important demo is Race - given that Obama gets 95%+ support so every extra point is almost a full point of support.

Raz’s race demo is White 74 Black 13 Other 13.

(13% was high point for black turnout in 2008. Normal is 11%. So if not 2008 turnout, shave a point or two off Obama’s numbers).


38 posted on 10/11/2012 8:07:52 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: MrChips

A few days ago, this poster reverse engineered his sample to D+5. Posted all the math used too - looked like it added up to me.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2942779/posts?page=27#27


39 posted on 10/11/2012 8:11:39 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Lincoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: nhwingut

Why does Rasmussen use D+3 (or D+5) when his own party affiliation summary shows R+2 (or R+3, rounding up)?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation


40 posted on 10/11/2012 8:13:11 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Lincoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: nhwingut

Thanks for that. One other item: I do not think midterm elections should be automatically dismissed from turnout projections. More often than not, the results of the midterm elections signal what is in store for the next presidential election. For example, the Republicans’ disastrous losses in the 2006 midterm election was a signal for what was in store for them in 2008.


41 posted on 10/11/2012 8:17:11 AM PDT by Trapped Behind Enemy Lines
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To: Personal Responsibility

You got me. I think he’s being cautious.

If you look at his polling in the past it has always reflected his party id survey. I mean why bother with a party id survey and then ignore it? Makes no sense.

For example in 2008 his party id survey had D+6 and that’s what his sample was based on, D+6.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

It’s weird.


42 posted on 10/11/2012 8:17:49 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: Trapped Behind Enemy Lines

I agree. The mid term trend is telling.

In 2002 Rs won and then won presidency and congress in 2004.

In 2006 Ds won and then won presidency and congress in 2008.

In 2010 Rs won (in a landslide) and yet it is all but ignored.


43 posted on 10/11/2012 8:20:07 AM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: nhwingut

Read this article about Gallup and then remember that the Obama administrtion sued Gallup just before the convention. Then ask yourself if other polling companies have capitulated to the pressures from the White House.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/morning-jay-politics-and-gallup-poll_654143.html

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/22/13417662-us-sues-gallup-alleging-pollster-overcharged-on-government-contracts?lite


44 posted on 10/11/2012 8:27:03 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: BlueStateRightist
The debate last week was a real blow to their collective solar plexus
45 posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:21 AM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: nhwingut

Why bother with a party id survey and then ignore it?


That’s the question. I can think of three answers:

1 - By weighting it differently, the race becomes tight and we spend time on his site, people sign up and he makes money.

2 - Political pressure by the Obama camp to not show the race as a Romney lead

3 - Peer pressure to not show the race as a Romney lead in order to keep in line with the other polls


46 posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:24 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Lincoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: Personal Responsibility

You forgot the added pressure of the fact that the Obama administration is suing Gallup after they reported that that Romney was ahead,


47 posted on 10/11/2012 8:34:32 AM PDT by Eva (Obama and Hillary lied, Americans died.)
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To: Eva

...somewhere a horse is missing its head


48 posted on 10/11/2012 8:39:58 AM PDT by spokeshave (The only people better off today than 4 years ago are the Prisoners at Guantanamo.)
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To: kara37

Orrrrrrrrr.... Romney’s losing ground. But your idea is more fun.


49 posted on 10/11/2012 8:45:28 AM PDT by paul544
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To: pburgh01

It kind of depends on the cycle, but I can be a doomer on here, but I really am not too concerned. I think we’ll win. If we don’t, it will be really, really bad though.....we will get through it and come back stronger for next time, but the damage will be harder to undo.

It is hard to imagine us actually losing though. Just hope we can pull of a Senate miracle due to the Supreme Court vacancies that will happen...likely 2 at least.


50 posted on 10/11/2012 9:29:22 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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