D+2 is Ras’s usual model. Wonder what caused him all of sudden to switch to D+5?
Rasmussen uses a D+3, not D+5.
The exact party breakdown is D 39 R 36 I 25.
(This is basically a 6 point swing from his party affiliation survey which has R+2.6) Makes no sense to give Dems benefit of doubt.
Another important demo is Race - given that Obama gets 95%+ support so every extra point is almost a full point of support.
Raz’s race demo is White 74 Black 13 Other 13.
(13% was high point for black turnout in 2008. Normal is 11%. So if not 2008 turnout, shave a point or two off Obama’s numbers).