Skip to comments.OH Absentee Update: Stunning numbers
Posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:02 AM PDT by LS
Ok, I finally got around to comparing the total shortfall by both Ds and Rs from 2008 to 2012 in those counties reporting 2008 data. (Most which haven't are not big pop, key counties, so their inclusion probably wouldn't change the ratios much). First, total absentee requests in OH fell from 2008. Second, two counties, Montgomery (mine) and Cuyahoga, actually GAINED R absentees over 08. Third, the data is as of close of business yesterday.
Total D dropoff from 2008: 224,550
Total R dropoff: 49,270
Total NET D dropoff: 175,280
Obama won OH by 250,000 votes.
In our county, the Is are going for Romney just under 2:1. Equally important, our captains are getting 60, 70, even 90% confirmations/personal contacts (usually, 30% is considered fine).
I'm getting info on some other counties, but again, how in the heck can ZEro even come close to winning OH with these numbers?
Nate Silver told us 0bama was going to win!!!!!! ;)
please..give it a rest.
Nope. Give it up.
Thanks for the update, LS.
"One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama."
Bad sample. Just check the spreadsheet and see if that makes any sense. Good work LS.
I am hyper afraid that with all that foreign money pouring into Obamugabe’s hands that this election will see more voter fraud and intimidations than ever before in history. They play for keepsies...............and not very nice..........
It’s nice to see the level of effort made in this important state.
In 2008, in Colorado; virtually all the precinct walking was done by the other side.
I HOPE I'M WRONG, THOUGH!!!!
I don’t see a link to a spreadsheet
Don’t know that the fraud that will def be a factor will be enough to make up the diff. But they sure will try. I think that “voters” are being bused in from states that are already in the bag to OH and the other swing states. And of course there’s always the old standby vote early and often. Who knows what else is going on.
I don’t have to explain it. I just give you numbers after numbers after numbers. Not REPORTS of what SOMEONE ELSE SAID. I give you the raw numbers. Check it yourself. In our county, “early voting” has been a disaster for the Ds.
We have poll watchers, lawyers, a R Sec of State, an R governor. So give it a rest.
Another poster indicated the poll is way off because a different site gave numbers of people who actually turned in their ballot (no party ID on that though IIRC). Not near as many as that poll would indicate have already actually voted.
I will admit, I was concerned with that poll when I saw it posted last night, but it appears to be flawed.
I swear, some people think the Dems are just completely invincible with their cheating machines ready to go.
The funny thing is, go to DU and they assert we are going to steal the election. Both sides assert superhuman cheating abilities of the other.
In reality, fraud impacts the election by maybe a point....and even that is maybe too high. It happens, but it is almost never a decider.
The truth is that the entire state machine is in republican hands with the Governor, House, Senate, Supremes, Treasurer, Sec of State all republicans and all state-wide ELECTED positions. (IOW, not appointees).
The Sec State position runs/oversees state elections. It will be harder for chicanery from democrats to work now than in 2004 when we had both a dem governor and dem sec state.
Even at the local/county level last summer the GOP recruited hundreds of poll watchers. I think they are on top of this.
Also OH has voter ID. You MUST show some form of ID in order to vote. DL, State ID, MIL ID, Pass Port, or recent, within one month, billing statement showing your LEGAL NAME and ADDRESS in order to vote. Otherwise you vote provisional and MUST prove you can vote within a certain amount of time or the ballots are thrown away uncounted.
If there is fraud in Ohio, I’d expect it to be at the numbers level, whether the local poll watchers, the vote machines or tabulation machines, or at the compilation level at state.
I’d really like to see a law requiring ALL numbers to be forwarded at one time and no numbers revealed until all are forwarded. I want poll workers balanced by party, too, if they aren’t already. (Not just county committees)
This idea of different counties and different precincts forwarding when they feel darn well ready is just an invitation to fraud as they get to watch returns and judge the closeness of contests.
Try New York for starters. Cost of transport is not an issue for the Obama campaign, esp wrt OH.
And do you seriously believe that a voter ID law is gonna stop these people? It’s not that hard to get an ID or the required documentation.....
Obama won Ohio by a little more than 262,000 votes. He won Cuyahoga County by 258,000 votes 70% to 30%. McCain only lost the rest of the state by about 6,000 total votes. Without the dead rising from the graves every October in Cuyahoga County, the Democrats CAN NOT WIN OHIO! They KNOW IT! and so do the Republicans.
Yes, in the best of all world, all votes VOTED on one day and all COUNTED together with no numbers announced in advance or partially. But we don’t live in that world.
Also the closest area of NY to OH is the far upper northwest corner. Buffalo Niagara Falls area. That is two plus hours from Ohio. It is also passing through PA, which is now a swing state and as important, OR MORE SO, than OH. O’Bumbler loses PA he loses OH, MI, and probably WI and he loses outright in a landslide.
But it seems like such an easy law to make.
Which repub primary was it that dragged out so long waiting for results into the long dark night?
OK Jim, point well taken. I don’t doubt there will be massive and widespread fraud in OH tho by the RAT party. But you’re right, making up for a deficit of 100k votes is next to impossible.
As long as those absentees aren’t mostly fraudulent, imaginary people registered as Repubs (to complicate investigations) but voting for Obama.
So, if this is the case, if Romney wins Is by one or two points, it's a BIG victory.
Yes, you do (or are supposed to) show ID. If a poll watcher thinks anyone is double voting, you call the GOP atty on call and the ballot is immediately challenged. Even Dems know this doesn’t work very well, because if you stall too long in Dem-heavy districts, people get discouraged and go home.
“In reality, fraud impacts the election by maybe a point....and even that is maybe too high. It happens, but it is almost never a decider.”
UH - THIS WAS WORKPLACE VIOLENCE
Imagine the opsec required to keep this a secret.
I see comparisons to 2008 but no raw numbers.
I’m not keeping up with total numbers, except yesterday I looked at all counties for which we had both 08 and 2012 data and Ds down net 175,000 ballots from 08 in all ounties that had data. Obama won by 260,000, so already without a single indie changing a vote he is in big trouble. Statistically not insurmountable if EVERY remaining D turns out, but this seems to me to be the ball game.
I see what you mean: go to the website and add up the counties yourself. The data is there.
Do you at least have the 08 numbers so I don’t have to look them up?
It’s based on too small a sample to mean anything IMHO.
No, not by county. All I have is what is available on the site. However, for the most part, the counties that aren’t on there are not the significant vote rich counties. In this case, what we have is far more revealing than what we do not.
This year, as every election year, I’m most worried about Wisconsin.
I'll play. First, not requesting an absentee ballot does not mean that person is not voting. I did not ask for one and I'm voting next monday. Second, last Thursday (Oct. 11) at OSU, Obama had the lead singer for the Black Eyed Peas open the rally on the oval for him. After Obama finished, they had buses bracketing the oval to take anyone who wanted to go to the Franklin Co. board of elections to early voting. And the singer gave a mini concert in the parking lot of the board of elections. http://www.thelantern.com/campus/obama-don-t-boo-vote-to-ohio-state-oval-crowd-1.2923784?pagereq=2 "Following the rally, charter busses were available to transport people, accompanied by will.i.am, to and from an early voting location. I need you fired up. I need you ready to go to vote. Because weve got some work to do, Obama said."
Most of Upstate NY is republican and NYC which dominates the state is 10 hours away. Furthermore, taking dems from upstate NY will cost them dearly in the congressional elections.
“So, if you figure the Ds are already down 175,000 votes after absentee voting, Rs have to secure only 85,000 votes outside of Cuyahoga.”
...but isn’t the deadline Nov 3 for requesting ABs? As of right now the gap is 166,000
>> this election will see more voter fraud and intimidations
Maybe fraud, but intimidation?
EVERYBODY IN CLEVELAND YOU GOT LOW INCOME WELFARE DISABILITY GOT OBAMA PHONE!!!
GOT OBAMA PHONE
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GOT OBAMA PHONE
So, it is incubent on a critic to explain why overall voter behavior (i.e., aside from declines in total absentee ballots, why fewer people would suddenly not vote absentee) would change, and more important, why (since this is across the board in every county) these trends would not hold up in other parts of the process.
This is exactly the stuff Michael Barone does all the time and he's almost always right: he looks at key precincts in key counties that are predictors. Well, in 08 EVERYONE agreed absentee/early voting were "predictors." So let's play the game. They are predicting a big Zero loss . . . unless voter behavior radically changes.
Even more to the point, there was a huge effort to get MORE Ds out for absentees this time, and it had an epic fail.
McCain won OH in the general. He lost in early voting. He lost from Cuyahoga Co. So the implication is that by election day, based on the early-absentee shortfalls, the Rs only have to make up 85,000, which they can do easily. Red counties can come out 3:1 if history is a guide---but they didn't in 08.
I’m sorry, but I don’t understand. Can you show me your calculations from this please?:
Add together all 2008 D absentee totals from all counties. You should get something above 225,000, then add all R ballot requests and you should get something around 49,000. Subtract 49,000 from 225,000 and that is the NET shortfall from 2008. As I say, my numbers are almost certainly a little low as I didn't count some of the really small counties, and the numbers are three days old.
Take 260,000---the total margin of victory in 2008 for Obama in OH---and subtract 175,000 (the current decrease/shortfall in absentee ballots) and you get 85,000 votes that the GOP has to make up. This is HUGELY bettr than 08.
Adam S Baldwin tweeted this.