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OH Absentee Update: Stunning numbers
George Mason Early/Absentee Voting Project ^ | 10/11/2012

Posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:02 AM PDT by LS

Ok, I finally got around to comparing the total shortfall by both Ds and Rs from 2008 to 2012 in those counties reporting 2008 data. (Most which haven't are not big pop, key counties, so their inclusion probably wouldn't change the ratios much). First, total absentee requests in OH fell from 2008. Second, two counties, Montgomery (mine) and Cuyahoga, actually GAINED R absentees over 08. Third, the data is as of close of business yesterday.

Total D dropoff from 2008: 224,550

Total R dropoff: 49,270

Total NET D dropoff: 175,280

Obama won OH by 250,000 votes.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; absenteeballots; obama; ohio; romney
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Some anecdotal info: Montgomery and Greene Co. (both of which went for Obama in 08) ran thorough precinct captain training sessions all summer. Captains call all Rs and Is in their precinct, then they walk for a visit and lit drop. These are neighbors, so usually they chat---it's not just a lit drop. In our county, they walk a second time. They report back on the Is, who are asked who they plan to vote for.

In our county, the Is are going for Romney just under 2:1. Equally important, our captains are getting 60, 70, even 90% confirmations/personal contacts (usually, 30% is considered fine).

I'm getting info on some other counties, but again, how in the heck can ZEro even come close to winning OH with these numbers?

1 posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:08 AM PDT by LS
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To: LS
I'm getting info on some other counties, but again, how in the heck can ZEro even come close to winning OH with these numbers?

Fraud?

2 posted on 10/11/2012 8:34:36 AM PDT by sam_paine (X .................................)
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

Nate Silver told us 0bama was going to win!!!!!! ;)


3 posted on 10/11/2012 8:34:40 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: sam_paine

please..give it a rest.


4 posted on 10/11/2012 8:36:20 AM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: sam_paine

Nope. Give it up.


5 posted on 10/11/2012 8:37:28 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Thanks for the update, LS.


6 posted on 10/11/2012 8:38:24 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: LS
How do you explain this in Free Republic's breaking news sidebar this morning?

"One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama."

Link: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2943119/posts

7 posted on 10/11/2012 8:38:34 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins; LS

Bad sample. Just check the spreadsheet and see if that makes any sense. Good work LS.


8 posted on 10/11/2012 8:41:49 AM PDT by Ravi
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To: sam_paine; Perdogg

I am hyper afraid that with all that foreign money pouring into Obamugabe’s hands that this election will see more voter fraud and intimidations than ever before in history. They play for keepsies...............and not very nice..........


9 posted on 10/11/2012 8:43:19 AM PDT by Red Badger (Is it just me, or is Hillary! starting to look like Benjamin Franklin?.................)
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To: LS

It’s nice to see the level of effort made in this important state.

In 2008, in Colorado; virtually all the precinct walking was done by the other side.


10 posted on 10/11/2012 8:47:05 AM PDT by cicero2k
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To: Red Badger
Agreed. 0bamugabe will be buying votes in the last few hours, A BLATANT VIOLATION OF FEDERAL LAW. You gotta wonder why the left was so anxious to get driver's licenses to 0bama's amnestied illegals. BUT THE DEED WILL HAVE BEEN DONE AND IT WILL BE TOO LATE TO STOP IT. Any attempts to address it following the election will be met with screams of 'you're just trying to change the results because 0bama is black'..SAME OLD CRAP AS LAST FOUR YEARS!!!!

I HOPE I'M WRONG, THOUGH!!!!

11 posted on 10/11/2012 8:49:23 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Ravi

I don’t see a link to a spreadsheet


12 posted on 10/11/2012 8:55:31 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: sam_paine

Don’t know that the fraud that will def be a factor will be enough to make up the diff. But they sure will try. I think that “voters” are being bused in from states that are already in the bag to OH and the other swing states. And of course there’s always the old standby vote early and often. Who knows what else is going on.


13 posted on 10/11/2012 8:56:01 AM PDT by uncitizen (Obama LIES like a prayer rug)
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To: xzins

I don’t have to explain it. I just give you numbers after numbers after numbers. Not REPORTS of what SOMEONE ELSE SAID. I give you the raw numbers. Check it yourself. In our county, “early voting” has been a disaster for the Ds.


14 posted on 10/11/2012 9:15:58 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
Baloney. If you conspiracy freaks spent 1/10th the time working for a GOP victory as you do predicting Dem fraud, we'd be ahead by 10%.

We have poll watchers, lawyers, a R Sec of State, an R governor. So give it a rest.

15 posted on 10/11/2012 9:17:46 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: xzins

Another poster indicated the poll is way off because a different site gave numbers of people who actually turned in their ballot (no party ID on that though IIRC). Not near as many as that poll would indicate have already actually voted.

I will admit, I was concerned with that poll when I saw it posted last night, but it appears to be flawed.


16 posted on 10/11/2012 9:19:31 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: LS

I swear, some people think the Dems are just completely invincible with their cheating machines ready to go.

The funny thing is, go to DU and they assert we are going to steal the election. Both sides assert superhuman cheating abilities of the other.

In reality, fraud impacts the election by maybe a point....and even that is maybe too high. It happens, but it is almost never a decider.


17 posted on 10/11/2012 9:23:09 AM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Carve your name on hearts, not marble." - C.H. Spurgeon)
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To: rwfromkansas; LS

The truth is that the entire state machine is in republican hands with the Governor, House, Senate, Supremes, Treasurer, Sec of State all republicans and all state-wide ELECTED positions. (IOW, not appointees).

The Sec State position runs/oversees state elections. It will be harder for chicanery from democrats to work now than in 2004 when we had both a dem governor and dem sec state.


18 posted on 10/11/2012 9:26:36 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: xzins

Even at the local/county level last summer the GOP recruited hundreds of poll watchers. I think they are on top of this.


19 posted on 10/11/2012 9:35:03 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: uncitizen
I suppose they could bus in voters from KY or IL. IN, PA MI, and VA are all swing states now and they can not afford to bus in likely voters from those states.

Also OH has voter ID. You MUST show some form of ID in order to vote. DL, State ID, MIL ID, Pass Port, or recent, within one month, billing statement showing your LEGAL NAME and ADDRESS in order to vote. Otherwise you vote provisional and MUST prove you can vote within a certain amount of time or the ballots are thrown away uncounted.

20 posted on 10/11/2012 9:40:57 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: LS

If there is fraud in Ohio, I’d expect it to be at the numbers level, whether the local poll watchers, the vote machines or tabulation machines, or at the compilation level at state.

I’d really like to see a law requiring ALL numbers to be forwarded at one time and no numbers revealed until all are forwarded. I want poll workers balanced by party, too, if they aren’t already. (Not just county committees)

This idea of different counties and different precincts forwarding when they feel darn well ready is just an invitation to fraud as they get to watch returns and judge the closeness of contests.


21 posted on 10/11/2012 9:43:58 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Jim from C-Town

Try New York for starters. Cost of transport is not an issue for the Obama campaign, esp wrt OH.

And do you seriously believe that a voter ID law is gonna stop these people? It’s not that hard to get an ID or the required documentation.....


22 posted on 10/11/2012 9:55:31 AM PDT by uncitizen
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To: LS
I agree! EVERY state wide office in Ohio is held by Republicans. John Husted the Secretary of State of OH PURGED more than 490,000 dead and nonexistent voters. over 40%, more than 200,000 in Cuyahoga (Cleveland)County, MANY VOTED IN 2008. CAN YOU SAY FRAUD?! Without the massive voter fraud available in Cuyaghoga County, the Democrats CAN NOT win state wide elections.

Obama won Ohio by a little more than 262,000 votes. He won Cuyahoga County by 258,000 votes 70% to 30%. McCain only lost the rest of the state by about 6,000 total votes. Without the dead rising from the graves every October in Cuyahoga County, the Democrats CAN NOT WIN OHIO! They KNOW IT! and so do the Republicans.

23 posted on 10/11/2012 9:58:58 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: xzins

Yes, in the best of all world, all votes VOTED on one day and all COUNTED together with no numbers announced in advance or partially. But we don’t live in that world.


24 posted on 10/11/2012 10:02:30 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: uncitizen
Oh come on! In order to impact the election in Ohio you would have to bus in more than 100,000 people, probably twice that amount. That would mean at least 2,000 fully loaded charter buses. I just do not see it as a possibility.

Also the closest area of NY to OH is the far upper northwest corner. Buffalo Niagara Falls area. That is two plus hours from Ohio. It is also passing through PA, which is now a swing state and as important, OR MORE SO, than OH. O’Bumbler loses PA he loses OH, MI, and probably WI and he loses outright in a landslide.

25 posted on 10/11/2012 10:10:14 AM PDT by Jim from C-Town (The government is rarely benevolent, often malevolent and never benign!)
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To: LS

But it seems like such an easy law to make.

Which repub primary was it that dragged out so long waiting for results into the long dark night?


26 posted on 10/11/2012 10:19:43 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: Jim from C-Town

OK Jim, point well taken. I don’t doubt there will be massive and widespread fraud in OH tho by the RAT party. But you’re right, making up for a deficit of 100k votes is next to impossible.


27 posted on 10/11/2012 10:38:52 AM PDT by uncitizen (Religion of Peace my hind end !)
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To: LS

As long as those absentees aren’t mostly fraudulent, imaginary people registered as Repubs (to complicate investigations) but voting for Obama.


28 posted on 10/11/2012 10:42:08 AM PDT by PapaBear3625 (Charlie Daniels - Payback Time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EWwTJj_nosI)
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To: Jim from C-Town
So, if you figure the Ds are already down 175,000 votes after absentee voting, Rs have to secure only 85,000 votes outside of Cuyahoga. I think this will be achieved even without a single indie vote---simply by the increase in R margins in counties such as Summit, Hamilton, Warren, and even Franklin.

So, if this is the case, if Romney wins Is by one or two points, it's a BIG victory.

29 posted on 10/11/2012 10:53:54 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Jim from C-Town

Yes, you do (or are supposed to) show ID. If a poll watcher thinks anyone is double voting, you call the GOP atty on call and the ballot is immediately challenged. Even Dems know this doesn’t work very well, because if you stall too long in Dem-heavy districts, people get discouraged and go home.


30 posted on 10/11/2012 11:04:54 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: rwfromkansas

“In reality, fraud impacts the election by maybe a point....and even that is maybe too high. It happens, but it is almost never a decider.”

Al Franken.


31 posted on 10/11/2012 11:11:56 AM PDT by Rebelbase (The most transparent administration ever is clear as mud.)
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To: LS

UH - THIS WAS WORKPLACE VIOLENCE

JUST A FEW BUMPS IN THE ROAD.....

WE'LL BRING A TELEPROMPTER


. . . . . . . . . . Libya-620x387

32 posted on 10/11/2012 11:30:13 AM PDT by devolve (----- ------- -CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER- ----------------------------)
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To: Jim from C-Town; uncitizen

Imagine the opsec required to keep this a secret.


33 posted on 10/11/2012 3:16:17 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: LS

I see comparisons to 2008 but no raw numbers.


34 posted on 10/12/2012 2:37:54 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: UltraV

I’m not keeping up with total numbers, except yesterday I looked at all counties for which we had both 08 and 2012 data and Ds down net 175,000 ballots from 08 in all ounties that had data. Obama won by 260,000, so already without a single indie changing a vote he is in big trouble. Statistically not insurmountable if EVERY remaining D turns out, but this seems to me to be the ball game.


35 posted on 10/12/2012 2:49:51 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: UltraV

I see what you mean: go to the website and add up the counties yourself. The data is there.


36 posted on 10/12/2012 2:51:37 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Do you at least have the 08 numbers so I don’t have to look them up?


37 posted on 10/12/2012 2:51:45 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: rwfromkansas

It’s based on too small a sample to mean anything IMHO.


38 posted on 10/12/2012 2:53:08 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: UltraV

No, not by county. All I have is what is available on the site. However, for the most part, the counties that aren’t on there are not the significant vote rich counties. In this case, what we have is far more revealing than what we do not.


39 posted on 10/12/2012 2:54:25 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: xzins

This year, as every election year, I’m most worried about Wisconsin.


40 posted on 10/12/2012 2:56:02 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: LS
how in the heck can ZEro even come close to winning OH with these numbers?

I'll play. First, not requesting an absentee ballot does not mean that person is not voting. I did not ask for one and I'm voting next monday. Second, last Thursday (Oct. 11) at OSU, Obama had the lead singer for the Black Eyed Peas open the rally on the oval for him. After Obama finished, they had buses bracketing the oval to take anyone who wanted to go to the Franklin Co. board of elections to early voting. And the singer gave a mini concert in the parking lot of the board of elections. http://www.thelantern.com/campus/obama-don-t-boo-vote-to-ohio-state-oval-crowd-1.2923784?pagereq=2 "Following the rally, charter busses were available to transport people, accompanied by will.i.am, to and from an early voting location. “I need you fired up. I need you ready to go to vote. Because we’ve got some work to do,” Obama said."

41 posted on 10/12/2012 10:46:02 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: uncitizen
Try New York for starters. Cost of transport is not an issue for the Obama campaign, esp wrt OH.

Most of Upstate NY is republican and NYC which dominates the state is 10 hours away. Furthermore, taking dems from upstate NY will cost them dearly in the congressional elections.

42 posted on 10/12/2012 10:52:11 PM PDT by staytrue
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To: LS

“So, if you figure the Ds are already down 175,000 votes after absentee voting, Rs have to secure only 85,000 votes outside of Cuyahoga.”

...but isn’t the deadline Nov 3 for requesting ABs? As of right now the gap is 166,000


43 posted on 10/13/2012 12:58:56 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: Red Badger

>> this election will see more voter fraud and intimidations

Maybe fraud, but intimidation?


44 posted on 10/13/2012 1:03:22 AM PDT by Gene Eric (Demoralization is a weapon of the enemy. Don't get it, don't spread it!)
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To: LS

EVERYBODY IN CLEVELAND YOU GOT LOW INCOME WELFARE DISABILITY GOT OBAMA PHONE!!!
GOT OBAMA PHONE
GOT OBAMA PHONE
GOT OBAMA PHONE


45 posted on 10/13/2012 1:04:40 AM PDT by dennisw (Government be yo mamma - Re-elect Barack Obama)
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To: staytrue
Sigh. You have to work with the metrics you have. We aren't talking "voting" and we really aren't even talking "early voting." I'm just looking at ONE CATEGORY, and in that category, the Ds are getting killed from where they were in 08.

So, it is incubent on a critic to explain why overall voter behavior (i.e., aside from declines in total absentee ballots, why fewer people would suddenly not vote absentee) would change, and more important, why (since this is across the board in every county) these trends would not hold up in other parts of the process.

This is exactly the stuff Michael Barone does all the time and he's almost always right: he looks at key precincts in key counties that are predictors. Well, in 08 EVERYONE agreed absentee/early voting were "predictors." So let's play the game. They are predicting a big Zero loss . . . unless voter behavior radically changes.

Even more to the point, there was a huge effort to get MORE Ds out for absentees this time, and it had an epic fail.

46 posted on 10/13/2012 7:44:18 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: profit_guy
Apparently I'm not making myself clear. I'm not dealing with the gap in D over R in absentees. I'm dealing with the SHORTFALL in Ds/Rs from 08, and the implications for the general.

McCain won OH in the general. He lost in early voting. He lost from Cuyahoga Co. So the implication is that by election day, based on the early-absentee shortfalls, the Rs only have to make up 85,000, which they can do easily. Red counties can come out 3:1 if history is a guide---but they didn't in 08.

47 posted on 10/13/2012 7:47:25 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

I’m sorry, but I don’t understand. Can you show me your calculations from this please?:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0


48 posted on 10/13/2012 8:08:22 AM PDT by profit_guy
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To: profit_guy
I added all D absentees currently requested from any county that had data for both 08 and 2012. I left out any counties that did not have 08 data; and I left out a couple of very small counties whose change for either party was in the hundreds.

Add together all 2008 D absentee totals from all counties. You should get something above 225,000, then add all R ballot requests and you should get something around 49,000. Subtract 49,000 from 225,000 and that is the NET shortfall from 2008. As I say, my numbers are almost certainly a little low as I didn't count some of the really small counties, and the numbers are three days old.

Take 260,000---the total margin of victory in 2008 for Obama in OH---and subtract 175,000 (the current decrease/shortfall in absentee ballots) and you get 85,000 votes that the GOP has to make up. This is HUGELY bettr than 08.

49 posted on 10/13/2012 10:54:54 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Adam S Baldwin tweeted this.
https://twitter.com/adamsbaldwin/status/256823415669919744


50 posted on 10/13/2012 11:18:54 AM PDT by SMGFan (SMGfan is not "Sub Machine Gun" fan)
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