Posted on 10/11/2012 8:31:02 AM PDT by LS
Ok, I finally got around to comparing the total shortfall by both Ds and Rs from 2008 to 2012 in those counties reporting 2008 data. (Most which haven't are not big pop, key counties, so their inclusion probably wouldn't change the ratios much). First, total absentee requests in OH fell from 2008. Second, two counties, Montgomery (mine) and Cuyahoga, actually GAINED R absentees over 08. Third, the data is as of close of business yesterday.
Total D dropoff from 2008: 224,550
Total R dropoff: 49,270
Total NET D dropoff: 175,280
Obama won OH by 250,000 votes.
In our county, the Is are going for Romney just under 2:1. Equally important, our captains are getting 60, 70, even 90% confirmations/personal contacts (usually, 30% is considered fine).
I'm getting info on some other counties, but again, how in the heck can ZEro even come close to winning OH with these numbers?
Fraud?
Nate Silver told us 0bama was going to win!!!!!! ;)
please..give it a rest.
Nope. Give it up.
Thanks for the update, LS.
"One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama."
Link: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2943119/posts
Bad sample. Just check the spreadsheet and see if that makes any sense. Good work LS.
I am hyper afraid that with all that foreign money pouring into Obamugabe’s hands that this election will see more voter fraud and intimidations than ever before in history. They play for keepsies...............and not very nice..........
It’s nice to see the level of effort made in this important state.
In 2008, in Colorado; virtually all the precinct walking was done by the other side.
I HOPE I'M WRONG, THOUGH!!!!
I don’t see a link to a spreadsheet
Don’t know that the fraud that will def be a factor will be enough to make up the diff. But they sure will try. I think that “voters” are being bused in from states that are already in the bag to OH and the other swing states. And of course there’s always the old standby vote early and often. Who knows what else is going on.
I don’t have to explain it. I just give you numbers after numbers after numbers. Not REPORTS of what SOMEONE ELSE SAID. I give you the raw numbers. Check it yourself. In our county, “early voting” has been a disaster for the Ds.
We have poll watchers, lawyers, a R Sec of State, an R governor. So give it a rest.
Another poster indicated the poll is way off because a different site gave numbers of people who actually turned in their ballot (no party ID on that though IIRC). Not near as many as that poll would indicate have already actually voted.
I will admit, I was concerned with that poll when I saw it posted last night, but it appears to be flawed.
I swear, some people think the Dems are just completely invincible with their cheating machines ready to go.
The funny thing is, go to DU and they assert we are going to steal the election. Both sides assert superhuman cheating abilities of the other.
In reality, fraud impacts the election by maybe a point....and even that is maybe too high. It happens, but it is almost never a decider.
The truth is that the entire state machine is in republican hands with the Governor, House, Senate, Supremes, Treasurer, Sec of State all republicans and all state-wide ELECTED positions. (IOW, not appointees).
The Sec State position runs/oversees state elections. It will be harder for chicanery from democrats to work now than in 2004 when we had both a dem governor and dem sec state.
Even at the local/county level last summer the GOP recruited hundreds of poll watchers. I think they are on top of this.
Also OH has voter ID. You MUST show some form of ID in order to vote. DL, State ID, MIL ID, Pass Port, or recent, within one month, billing statement showing your LEGAL NAME and ADDRESS in order to vote. Otherwise you vote provisional and MUST prove you can vote within a certain amount of time or the ballots are thrown away uncounted.
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