Skip to comments.Early voting statistics 10/11/12
Posted on 10/11/2012 8:36:54 AM PDT by Ravi
(Excerpt) Read more at elections.gmu.edu ...
OH: Difference between two parties as of this am is 6.63% in ballots requested. Dems had a 14.17% advantage in 2008. Everything seems to be on the straight and narrow. Cuyahoga dems have requested 115,000 ballots and repubs 46,500 ballots thus far. A difference of 68,500 ballots - still not mathematically possible for them to reach their margin of 258,000 in Cuyahoga in 2008. I predict their margin in Cuyahoga will be 180,000 when all is said and done.
NC: stable (Reps-51.3% requested ballots; Dems-27.3% requested ballots)
CO: see my post from yesterday
What kind of margin will the Dems need in Cuyahoga county to carry the state?
Whatever is needed.
The problem I see with the statistics on this is:
1: How will those absentee ballot dems vote? Are they fed up and voting for Mitt instead?
2: How many Republicans voted dem last time to be historic or clear their conscience that won’t make that same mistake again?
3: Or, how many Dems will vote for the 3rd party libertarian since this is practically a mix between a Democrat and a Republican?
I’m feeling in my heart it will be a landslide against Obama. I might be hoping more, but it’s the only thing keeping me sane!
Just a guess:
Under 200,000, we win easily
Between 200,000 to 240,000 it’s a dogfight.
Over 240,000, dems win.
We should be very careful expecting Dim areas to not destroy Republican early votes. They also use early voting as a way to vote multiple locations, like college students and snowbirders.