Early voting statistics 10/11/12

GMU ^ | 10/11/12 | me

[Ravi]

above

[Ravi]

IA: Dems-48%; Repubs-29.7% (376,200 ballots REQUESTED - almost to the 500,000 absentee ballots CAST in 2008). Repubs are outperforming 2008 as of today and closing in on 2010 numbers where dems were 44% of early voting and repubs were 38%. Dems outnumber us as of this morning by under 70,000 in raw totals. It was 97,000 about 10 days ago.

OH: Difference between two parties as of this am is 6.63% in ballots requested. Dems had a 14.17% advantage in 2008. Everything seems to be on the straight and narrow. Cuyahoga dems have requested 115,000 ballots and repubs 46,500 ballots thus far. A difference of 68,500 ballots - still not mathematically possible for them to reach their margin of 258,000 in Cuyahoga in 2008. I predict their margin in Cuyahoga will be 180,000 when all is said and done.

NC: stable (Reps-51.3% requested ballots; Dems-27.3% requested ballots)

CO: see my post from yesterday

[mrs9x]

What kind of margin will the Dems need in Cuyahoga county to carry the state?

[SarahPalin2012]

Whatever is needed.

[jcsjcm]

The problem I see with the statistics on this is:

1: How will those absentee ballot dems vote? Are they fed up and voting for Mitt instead?

2: How many Republicans voted dem last time to be historic or clear their conscience that won’t make that same mistake again?

3: Or, how many Dems will vote for the 3rd party libertarian since this is practically a mix between a Democrat and a Republican?

I’m feeling in my heart it will be a landslide against Obama. I might be hoping more, but it’s the only thing keeping me sane!

[johnsondavid841]

Thanks for the update, everything looks fine so far.

[Ravi]

Just a guess:

Under 200,000, we win easily

Between 200,000 to 240,000 it’s a dogfight.

Over 240,000, dems win.

[Conservativegreatgrandma]

We should be very careful expecting Dim areas to not destroy Republican early votes. They also use early voting as a way to vote multiple locations, like college students and snowbirders.