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Romney, Allen Take The Lead In VA
Virginia Virtucon ^ | 10/11/12 | Riley

Posted on 10/11/2012 8:44:08 AM PDT by ReagansRaiders

Pollster John McLaughlin (not to be confused with the pundit) conducted a statewide poll of Virginia for George Allen's senate campaign this Mon. and Tue., surveying 600 likely voters.  Unlike media and university polls, McLaughlin works for clients and no candidate wants to hire someone who isn't accurate.  John is an ace pollster who I worked closely with for Steve Forbes in 1996, so I know that if he is going public with these numbers he is extremely confident in their accuracy as his entire reputation depends upon it. With that preface, drumroll please...

Romney 51% - Obama 44% - Goode 1%

Allen 49% - Kaine 46%

Complete crosstabs can be found here.


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; allen; allen2012; kaine; poll; romney; va2012; virginia
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1 posted on 10/11/2012 8:44:19 AM PDT by ReagansRaiders
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To: ReagansRaiders

Please be true, please be true, please be true.


2 posted on 10/11/2012 8:51:17 AM PDT by ilgipper
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To: ReagansRaiders

I know John’s young brother and partner Jim. He is an honest stand up guy. I believe this.


3 posted on 10/11/2012 8:51:28 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Conservatism is truth. Liberalism is lies.)
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To: ReagansRaiders

This looks more like it. I wonder what the party affiliation is for VA?


4 posted on 10/11/2012 8:51:32 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: ReagansRaiders

Good news indeed.


5 posted on 10/11/2012 8:51:35 AM PDT by goodolemr
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To: ReagansRaiders

Please Lord, let it be so.


6 posted on 10/11/2012 8:51:35 AM PDT by Sparticus (Tar and feathers for the next dumb@ss Republican that uses the word bipartisanship.)
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To: ReagansRaiders

Internals on that poll are pretty consistent with Virginia. A basically even D/R distribution, 19% African-American, and a good male/female ratio.


7 posted on 10/11/2012 8:52:09 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: Mad Dawg; EDINVA; Hawthorn; Paisan; VA_Gentleman; seekthetruth; COBOL2Java; Perdogg; kabar; Gabz; ..

VA Ping!

If you want on/off the VA Ping List, please freepmail me.

If you see posts of interest to Virginians, please ping me.

Thanks!


8 posted on 10/11/2012 8:52:34 AM PDT by randita
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To: ReagansRaiders

Oh my God ! I can’t believe it! Please let it be.


9 posted on 10/11/2012 8:54:11 AM PDT by FryingPan101 (2016 looms)
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To: ReagansRaiders

Goode’s not taking as big a bite as many thought he would. Good news.


10 posted on 10/11/2012 8:55:11 AM PDT by randita
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To: ReagansRaiders

I’ll do my part.


11 posted on 10/11/2012 8:55:43 AM PDT by VaRepublican (I would propagate taglines but I don't know how. But bloggers do.)
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To: ReagansRaiders

Run like you are 20 points down in the election right up to the election..NO MATTER WHAT the polls say.


12 posted on 10/11/2012 8:56:23 AM PDT by crz
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To: ReagansRaiders

The Goode number convinces me this is accurate


13 posted on 10/11/2012 8:57:23 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: jmaroneps37

I know Jim Mclaughlin too. I agree with your assessment of him.

I believe these numbers, too.

I think many of the Republican candidates around the country are getting a “Romney bounce.”


14 posted on 10/11/2012 8:59:41 AM PDT by somerville
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To: ReagansRaiders
The poll is just a sympton of

The Rising Tide of RACISM in America (TM).

15 posted on 10/11/2012 8:59:47 AM PDT by 17th Miss Regt
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To: ReagansRaiders

OBAMAPHONE LADY: Say WHAT?

16 posted on 10/11/2012 9:00:48 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: ilgipper

“Please be true, please be true, please be true.”

As my barber said to me yesterday, just like he said 6 months ago, “Romney is going to win in a landslide”.

My barber is almost always right.


17 posted on 10/11/2012 9:01:07 AM PDT by Signalman
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To: ReagansRaiders

Dick Morris mentioned this poll last night on Greta. He said that this pollster is legit and respected. The results may confirm Suffolk’s decision to suspend surveys in VA, NC and FL.


18 posted on 10/11/2012 9:02:40 AM PDT by Kahuna
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To: randita

We live in the western Richmond suburbs and have not seen any buzz whatsoever for Goode throughout this campaign. See a few Romney bumperstickers and O’bama bumperstickers now and then. In ‘08 even here in the burbs there were O’bama stickers all over.


19 posted on 10/11/2012 9:03:19 AM PDT by dogcaller
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To: crz

Exactly...run like you are behind all the way to election day. No mercy.


20 posted on 10/11/2012 9:03:54 AM PDT by Blue Turtle
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To: ReagansRaiders

Romney 51% - Obama 44% Virginia? WOW! Any chance people were looking for any reason to get out of voting for Obama and the lying democrats? And Romney gave them that reason?


21 posted on 10/11/2012 9:05:52 AM PDT by GOPJ (You only establish a feel for the line by having crossed it. - - Freeper One Name)
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To: ReagansRaiders

There’s something happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear ...


22 posted on 10/11/2012 9:07:47 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: ReagansRaiders

Now is the time for R&R to go for the throat. Libya, Fast & Furious, bogus fraud with the labor stats, racist speeches about Katrina...et al.


23 posted on 10/11/2012 9:08:35 AM PDT by Kahuna
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To: mrs9x

“19% African-American”

That would be just about the 2008 number of 20% in Va.
Very reasonable, Obama should get about the same.

And in 2008 I had never seen so many at my polling place in my minority district. I think turnout doubled from usual.

We’ve tightened VoetrID a litltle since 2008.


24 posted on 10/11/2012 9:10:18 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: Signalman

“...My barber is almost always right....”

Since I’m married to a wonderful woman in the hair-cutting business, let me rephrase what you said, and put it this way to you:

ANYBODY that has the instantaneous capability of giving you a Reverse Mohawk is ALWAYS right (at least until the clippers get put away...)...


25 posted on 10/11/2012 9:11:26 AM PDT by NFHale (The Second Amendment - By Any Means Necessary.)
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To: ReagansRaiders

So, who are these 2% idiots who will apparently vote Romney/Kaine?


26 posted on 10/11/2012 9:12:23 AM PDT by kevkrom (Those in a rush to trample the Constitution seem to forget that it is the source of their authority.)
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To: mrsmith

I live in the City of Richmond on the south side. In 2008, there was a huge line to vote, mostly consisting of minorities and younger voters.

I think I will be able to tell how Virginia will go just by how long the line is and the makeup of the line. If the line is similar to the 2004 election, Romney will probably win the state.


27 posted on 10/11/2012 9:13:24 AM PDT by mrs9x
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To: ReagansRaiders
"If any of my competitors were drowning, I'd stick a hose in their mouth”
-Ray Kroc

Good advice ...

28 posted on 10/11/2012 9:13:53 AM PDT by ArrogantBustard (Western Civilization is Aborting, Buggering, and Contracepting itself out of existence.)
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To: ReagansRaiders
It's time for a FReeper group prayer for Ryan tonight:

"God please give Paul Ryan the grace, strength, sharpness and quit wit to CONQUER Biden and OVERCOME the moderator's attempts to entrap or ambush him in tonight's debate. Amen."

29 posted on 10/11/2012 9:16:22 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: kevkrom

lol.

wow.


30 posted on 10/11/2012 9:16:41 AM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: KC_Conspirator

We don’t register by party in VA.


31 posted on 10/11/2012 9:17:01 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

Very interesting .......


32 posted on 10/11/2012 9:20:06 AM PDT by Col Frank Slade
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To: ReagansRaiders

I heard another pollster has pulled out of FL, NC and VA becasue they are no longer even close enough for Obama to have a chance.


33 posted on 10/11/2012 9:20:25 AM PDT by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
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To: ReagansRaiders

Good Lord, i’m not sure I can take 25 more days of polls lol. I hope these are correct but goodness, who do we believe??


34 posted on 10/11/2012 9:23:43 AM PDT by chad_in_georgia
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To: ReagansRaiders
First, significant that the closer we get to the election, the smaller Goode's numbers are. I thought that might happen, that as the possibility of an Obama re-election loomed, people would shift to Romney.

Second, this confirms Suffolk Polling's decision to leave VA.

35 posted on 10/11/2012 9:24:35 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: ReagansRaiders

If VA and FL are to be “painted red” then it’s all about OH from here on out, right?


36 posted on 10/11/2012 9:24:47 AM PDT by BlueStateRightist
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To: chad_in_georgia

I agree with you. I just heard another poll on my local radio station say that Obama was ahead by 5% in Virginia.

I don’t trust any of these polls.


37 posted on 10/11/2012 9:26:01 AM PDT by beandog (All Aboard the Choo Choo Train to Crazy Town)
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To: xzins

Yes, as reality closes in, the Goode 5% has shrunk.


38 posted on 10/11/2012 9:26:22 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: LS

Yes, I agree that voters would be backing off of Goode. More importantly for me, though, is that they include him in their numbers. He’s on the ballot, so not including him would make me wonder what the real numbers were.

IOW, they handled this honestly, so probably the rest of it, too.


39 posted on 10/11/2012 9:28:59 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! True supporters of our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: kabar

I know that. But I wonder if there is exit polling data that might have information going back a few years.


40 posted on 10/11/2012 9:31:52 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: ReagansRaiders

Virginia Ping


41 posted on 10/11/2012 9:35:51 AM PDT by SarahPalin2012
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America

Amen and AMEN!


42 posted on 10/11/2012 9:41:28 AM PDT by pj_627
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To: KC_Conspirator

Probably somewhere if you Google it. IMO the race is much closer than this poll indicates. We must break about even in NoVA to win the state.


43 posted on 10/11/2012 9:41:33 AM PDT by kabar
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To: ReagansRaiders

Mitt Romney supporters may be thrilled and President Obama’s backers chilled by the their respective performances in last week’s Denver debate, but a new Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll suggests voters in three swing states weren’t seriously rocked.

“Romney outfought [Obama] 4-1 in the first debate, according to likely voters in Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin,” said Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown. “The shifts are too small to measure, but the races in Wisconsin and Colorado are now too close to call. The president holds his lead in Virginia.”

Likely Colorado voters back Romney 48% to Obama’s 47%; those numbers were the reverse in a Sept. 19 poll. In Virginia, Obama leads 51% to 46% now, versus 50%-46% last time. And in Wisconsin, the president is up 50%-47% over Romney, versus 51%-45% in September.


44 posted on 10/11/2012 9:43:36 AM PDT by kabar
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To: Oldeconomybuyer

I live in Virginia and oldest daughter is a civil servant. She said that when Romney said in the debate that he was cutting govt workers through attrition, she knew he was going to win the state. She’s heard similar things at work, too.


45 posted on 10/11/2012 9:50:15 AM PDT by republicangel
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To: beandog

Do you know which one? I haven’t heard that big of a point difference in a couple of weeks.


46 posted on 10/11/2012 9:51:39 AM PDT by republicangel
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To: kabar

I have the exit poll from 2-3 years ago for the McDonnell race and it shows a breakdown of 37 R, 33 D, and 30 I. If so, then Obama is in deep trouble and this race is not even close in reality.


47 posted on 10/11/2012 9:51:59 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: ReagansRaiders

Please, Dear God, may You continue to fill the hearts of those of my beloved Old Dominion to do the right thing...


48 posted on 10/11/2012 10:06:50 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Record high turnout is our hope for sending 0bama home. Pray hard!!!)
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To: kabar

Quinnipiac lies. They are now about the only poll showing Obumme with a lead in VA.


49 posted on 10/11/2012 10:08:16 AM PDT by KC_Conspirator
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To: chad_in_georgia
Good Lord, i’m not sure I can take 25 more days of polls lol. I hope these are correct but goodness, who do we believe??

I believe Romney is going to win and win big. Huge, even. But that said...these next 3.5 weeks are going to be nerve wracking!

50 posted on 10/11/2012 10:12:32 AM PDT by pgkdan (A vote for anyone but Romney is a vote for obama. GO MITT!!)
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