Skip to comments.It Looks Like The Huge Drop In Jobless Claims Was All Due To One Mystery State
Posted on 10/11/2012 9:26:49 AM PDT by markomalley
Earlier this morning, the Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims plunged to 339K from 369K a week ago.
Economists were looking for a reading of 370k.
Immediately, Twitter exploded with tweets mocking Jack Welch, who claimed last week's jobs report was fixed to artificially drop the September unemployment rate to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent in August.
Coincidentally, cryptic messages came through from Bloomberg and the WSJ that raised doubts about today's report. From Bloomberg:
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
“FOX News just said it was California”
I tried to Google previous weeks California Initial Job claims but I did find what I was lookng for, But that number could easily be 25000 plus
Could it be that those "quarterly figures" that are missing are why the SEPTEMBER numbers don't make any sense? Why would "quarterly figures" be needed to ascertain the number of initial jobless claims for a week?
It seems like a game they're playing and warrants further investigation. If companies can get in trouble for faking their books, why can't the government?
Read the update at the top of the article. It explains what happened. 15,000-25,000 claims in California went unfiled.
" Not Seasonally Adjusted initial claims jumped by 26K to 327K in the past week but who's counting"
The U.S. is becoming a socialist dictatorship. Obama = stalin = Chavez. ALL democrats/socialists are the same. Look at the U.S. media and Sean Penn supporting this genocidal communist freak called Chavez in Venezuela.
Let team Obama continue to lie.. America knows the truth. Too many people are unemployed and have unemployed relatives for them to believe these bogus numbers. FedEx just announced today they’re laying off THOUSANDS of people. This is not what happens in a recovery.. FedEx is indeed a barometer of that.
Wow... I hadn't heard that.
Here’s the “funny” part: If there were no internet, the “missing numbers” story would never have seen the light of day.
The MSM has lost their ability to utterly control news - and us.
I find it amazing that every news leak, every “unexpected” number, every unreported story...every one of them miraculously benefit the liberals. Every one. It’s like flipping a coin 1000 times and getting 1000 heads.
When a number going down would benefit the liberals, that’s how it gets reported
When a number going up would benefit the liberals, that’s how it gets reported
Two weeks later when the “adjusted” number comes out, the real one which doesn’t benefit the liberals, that story is buried on page 17 in 3 point font.
The one time they didn’t get the miracle benefit - the one time the coin flip came up tails - was last week when a media unfiltered Romney beat the snot out of Obama in the debate.
Why, it’s almost like the media is tilting everything toward the liberals on purpose!
Such a thing cannot be possible, right? /s
Not just the internet but the contrarian counter-balance in full effect. If Obama was believable, this would have all been swept under the rug. He’s not.
Most corrupt and dishonest media ever.
Dont get me started on your socialist FDR.
Ironic, isn't it that WW2 officially started when Poland was invaded by the Nazis. It ended with Poland enslaved by the communists. Somebody remind me again: who really won WW2?
FDR was a socialist , He allied himself with Stalin and Soviet Russia , FDR saved communist Russia and let Russia invade and take over and turn to communism, all of Eastern Europe, leading to 40 years of the Cold war. FDR didn't object to Stalin taking over Eastern Europe nor turning much of the world to communism because FDR was a fellow communist.
Must have been a typo, they meant a state of mystery, not mystery state......
We’ve Gotten To The Bottom Of The Mysterious Jobless Claims Report!
After this morning’s surprisingly positive jobless claims number was released, three things happened:
Lots of people felt better about the economy
Democrats cheered because they thought the number would help Obama
Republicans seized on confusing reports that the numbers had “excluded claims from one large state” (probably California) and blasted the number as wrong and misleading.
Since then, the argument has raged on, and there have been a variety of different reports and interpretations.
Well, we’re glad to say that we’ve finally gotten to the bottom of what happened.
We spoke to a source at the Labor Department. According to this source, who is an analyst at the Department, here’s what happened:
ALL STATES WERE INCLUDED in this week’s jobless claims. Assertions that “a large state” was excluded from the report are patently false.
It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state—California—were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week. This happens occasionally, our source says. When a state’s jobless claims bureau is short-staffed, sometimes the state does not process all of the claims that came in during the week in time to get them to the DOL. The source believes that this is what happened this week.
The California claims that were not processed in time to get into this week’s jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week’s or the following week’s. In other words, those reports might be modestly higher than expected.
The source believes that the number of California claims that were not processed totalled about 15,000-25,000. Thus, if one were to “normalize” the overall not-seasonally-adjusted jobless claims number, it would increase by about 15,000-25,000.
This week’s “normalized” jobless claims number, therefore, would be about 355,000-365,000, not the 339,000 that was reported. This compares to the 370,000 consensus expectation.
In other words, had all of California’s jobless claims been processed in time to make the jobless-claims release, this jobless number would still have been better than economists were expecting—but not as much better as it appeared.
Again, the as-yet-unprocessed claims will appear in future reports. So next week’s number may well be higher than expected.
So, who’s right about today’s jobless claims number?
Jobless claims were better than expected, even after adjusting for an unusual anomaly
There was an unusual anomaly that made this week’s jobless claims look better than they would otherwise have been.