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It Looks Like The Huge Drop In Jobless Claims Was All Due To One Mystery State
Business Insider ^ | 10/11/12 | Sam Ro

Posted on 10/11/2012 9:26:49 AM PDT by markomalley

Earlier this morning, the Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims plunged to 339K from 369K a week ago.

Economists were looking for a reading of 370k.

Immediately, Twitter exploded with tweets mocking Jack Welch, who claimed last week's jobs report was fixed to artificially drop the September unemployment rate to 7.8 percent from 8.1 percent in August.

Coincidentally, cryptic messages came through from Bloomberg and the WSJ that raised doubts about today's report. From Bloomberg:

(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Business/Economy; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; braking; corruption; democrats; fraud; unemployment; welch
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1 posted on 10/11/2012 9:26:55 AM PDT by markomalley
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To: markomalley
These fake numbers are from the government.

These corrupt Marixst bastards must be imprisoned for this fraud, including their leader Obama.

What has the government done right anyway, ever?

2 posted on 10/11/2012 9:29:46 AM PDT by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ..,)
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To: markomalley

What a letdown. They mention a mystery state but what state it is remains a mystery...


3 posted on 10/11/2012 9:29:50 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: markomalley

Large state. California I’d guess.

This is great though. Another cooked book shows the 7.8% was also b.s.

Ministry of Truth needs to spin a better story next time.


4 posted on 10/11/2012 9:30:00 AM PDT by TigerClaws
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To: markomalley

I suspect it’s the state where there are no more employees to lay off.


5 posted on 10/11/2012 9:32:37 AM PDT by proxy_user
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To: markomalley

Bush’s fault.


6 posted on 10/11/2012 9:32:40 AM PDT by swamprebel (a Constitution once changed from Freedom, can never be restored.)
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To: markomalley

I suspect it’s the state where there are no more employees to lay off.


7 posted on 10/11/2012 9:32:50 AM PDT by proxy_user
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To: Democrat_media
What has the government done right anyway, ever?

Organized the society in such a way that helped (greatly) the anglosphere win World War II. So there.

8 posted on 10/11/2012 9:35:06 AM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: markomalley

“One omission by one state—you wouldn’t think it would be a big deal, but in this case it drove the number down by 10%,” said analyst Stephen Stanley with Pierpont Securities.

Economists are speculating the state could be California, the most populous state in the nation.

“It was likely a state with a large population and we suspect that it was California based on the occasional massive swings that have occurred in its claims data in the past,” said Daniel Silver, an economist with JPMorgan, JPM +1.17%in a note.

“In short, this reading is worthless in terms of informing on the general economy,” Mr. Stanley wrote in a research note.


9 posted on 10/11/2012 9:37:11 AM PDT by kabar
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To: SeekAndFind

Radio reports from “mainstream media” have all said it’s California.


10 posted on 10/11/2012 9:37:24 AM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: Former Proud Canadian

Helped communist Russia survive and take over half the world that’s what your socialist monster FDR did in WW2 , notice how it didn’t protest Stalin taking over half of Europe etc.

Don’t get me started on your socialist FDR.


11 posted on 10/11/2012 9:37:34 AM PDT by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ..,)
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To: markomalley

I was not aware that we had a state named BS


12 posted on 10/11/2012 9:37:49 AM PDT by clamper1797 (I mourn for the America I grew up in ..fought for ..and loved ..July 4 1776- June 28 2012)
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To: SeekAndFind

The mystery state is state #55 or maybe state #56 or #57.
Or it could be Uzbekistan which has not yet reported it’s figures.


13 posted on 10/11/2012 9:38:00 AM PDT by certrtwngnut (It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes. (Josef Stalin))
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To: proxy_user

FOX News just said it was California.


14 posted on 10/11/2012 9:38:07 AM PDT by anoldafvet (One million people attended Obama's inauguration, 14 of them missed work)
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To: markomalley; Oldeconomybuyer

So... bottom line: Can anyone predict what the November unemployment rate will be? (I believe that number will come out a few days before the election)


15 posted on 10/11/2012 9:39:02 AM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz: Romney / Ryan 2012)
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To: markomalley
Which state, or is this a national security secret like
Obama’s college transcripts?
16 posted on 10/11/2012 9:39:52 AM PDT by Truth29
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To: markomalley

Was the leak that a state was missing an intentional hint how obama rigged the september report? If you can skip a state, you could double report a state in the household survey?


17 posted on 10/11/2012 9:40:34 AM PDT by Bulwinkle (Alec, a.k.a. Daffy Duck)
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To: Solson

And the real question is “why?” Why are their numbers not included? I suspect it is a bigger story than the artificially low numbers that were reported.


18 posted on 10/11/2012 9:40:34 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: markomalley

WTF, the article is just as vague as the government’s numbers.


19 posted on 10/11/2012 9:40:57 AM PDT by THE_RAIDER
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To: anoldafvet

-—— FOX News just said it was California. -——

The most populus state? What are the chances?


20 posted on 10/11/2012 9:41:24 AM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: nutmeg

“FOX News just said it was California”

I tried to Google previous weeks California Initial Job claims but I did find what I was lookng for, But that number could easily be 25000 plus


21 posted on 10/11/2012 9:43:30 AM PDT by DAC21
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To: markomalley


Fake, fake, fake, fake.

22 posted on 10/11/2012 9:44:04 AM PDT by Telepathic Intruder (The right thing is not always the popular thing)
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To: markomalley
"However, the report may not be as positive as the sharp drop indicates. A Labor Department economist said one large state didn't report additional quarterly figures as expected, accounting for a substantial part of the decrease."

Could it be that those "quarterly figures" that are missing are why the SEPTEMBER numbers don't make any sense? Why would "quarterly figures" be needed to ascertain the number of initial jobless claims for a week?

23 posted on 10/11/2012 9:45:26 AM PDT by Roccus
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To: cuban leaf
And furthermore, WHY did they publish the job claims numbers, which do drive the stock market, when this anomaly existed. Heck, the fact this was missed wasn't immediate. it was at least 30 minutes after the claims number was released.

It seems like a game they're playing and warrants further investigation. If companies can get in trouble for faking their books, why can't the government?

24 posted on 10/11/2012 9:46:15 AM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: THE_RAIDER

Read the update at the top of the article. It explains what happened. 15,000-25,000 claims in California went unfiled.


25 posted on 10/11/2012 9:47:20 AM PDT by cdga5for4
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To: cuban leaf
Also, from a great ZeroHedge article, we get this quote

" Not Seasonally Adjusted initial claims jumped by 26K to 327K in the past week but who's counting"

26 posted on 10/11/2012 9:49:05 AM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: Solson
This is scary.

The U.S. is becoming a socialist dictatorship. Obama = stalin = Chavez. ALL democrats/socialists are the same. Look at the U.S. media and Sean Penn supporting this genocidal communist freak called Chavez in Venezuela.

27 posted on 10/11/2012 9:50:38 AM PDT by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ..,)
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To: nutmeg

Let team Obama continue to lie.. America knows the truth. Too many people are unemployed and have unemployed relatives for them to believe these bogus numbers. FedEx just announced today they’re laying off THOUSANDS of people. This is not what happens in a recovery.. FedEx is indeed a barometer of that.


28 posted on 10/11/2012 9:51:22 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
FedEx just announced today they’re laying off THOUSANDS of people.

Wow... I hadn't heard that.

29 posted on 10/11/2012 9:52:56 AM PDT by nutmeg (I'm with Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz: Romney / Ryan 2012)
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To: nutmeg
It's on DrudgeReport.com

http://www.france24.com/en/20121010-fedex-cut-thousands-workforce

30 posted on 10/11/2012 9:55:39 AM PDT by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
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To: Solson

Here’s the “funny” part: If there were no internet, the “missing numbers” story would never have seen the light of day.

The MSM has lost their ability to utterly control news - and us.


31 posted on 10/11/2012 9:59:41 AM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: markomalley

I find it amazing that every news leak, every “unexpected” number, every unreported story...every one of them miraculously benefit the liberals. Every one. It’s like flipping a coin 1000 times and getting 1000 heads.

When a number going down would benefit the liberals, that’s how it gets reported
When a number going up would benefit the liberals, that’s how it gets reported

Two weeks later when the “adjusted” number comes out, the real one which doesn’t benefit the liberals, that story is buried on page 17 in 3 point font.

The one time they didn’t get the miracle benefit - the one time the coin flip came up tails - was last week when a media unfiltered Romney beat the snot out of Obama in the debate.

Why, it’s almost like the media is tilting everything toward the liberals on purpose!

Such a thing cannot be possible, right? /s


32 posted on 10/11/2012 10:00:07 AM PDT by Personal Responsibility (The Left blaming Jim Lehrer for the debate is like blaming Lincoln's assassination on the play.i of)
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To: markomalley
The Reich Minister of Propaganda stikes again. Anything - absolutely no lie too large - to have a 2nd term for the first Gay Muslim President.



Obama's ring: 'There is no god but Allah'
He's worn band on wedding-ring finger since before he met Michelle

33 posted on 10/11/2012 10:01:30 AM PDT by Cheerio (Barry Hussein Soetoro-0bama=The Complete Destruction of American Capitalism)
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To: cuban leaf

Not just the internet but the contrarian counter-balance in full effect. If Obama was believable, this would have all been swept under the rug. He’s not.


34 posted on 10/11/2012 10:01:46 AM PDT by Solson (The Voters stole the election! And the establishment wants it back.)
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To: markomalley

Most corrupt and dishonest media ever.


35 posted on 10/11/2012 10:02:14 AM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: kabar
"Economists are speculating its California"???
Then the govt doesn't break this data down by states? Hmmm that seems like it would be an impt factor......
36 posted on 10/11/2012 10:04:29 AM PDT by uncitizen
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To: Democrat_media
Helped communist Russia survive and take over half the world that’s what your socialist monster FDR did in WW2 , notice how it didn’t protest Stalin taking over half of Europe etc.

Don’t get me started on your socialist FDR.

Ironic, isn't it that WW2 officially started when Poland was invaded by the Nazis. It ended with Poland enslaved by the communists. Somebody remind me again: who really won WW2?

37 posted on 10/11/2012 10:04:38 AM PDT by Sans-Culotte ( Pray for Obama- Psalm 109:8)
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To: Sans-Culotte
No actually Soviet Communist Russia invaded Poland at the same time Germany did. But FDR allied himself with Stalin to save Communist Russia to save communism. Also Japan attacked the U.S.A but FDR made it top priority to aid Communist Russia in their battle with Germany, Japan was 2nd priority.

FDR was a socialist , He allied himself with Stalin and Soviet Russia , FDR saved communist Russia and let Russia invade and take over and turn to communism, all of Eastern Europe, leading to 40 years of the Cold war. FDR didn't object to Stalin taking over Eastern Europe nor turning much of the world to communism because FDR was a fellow communist.

38 posted on 10/11/2012 10:10:31 AM PDT by Democrat_media (limit government to 5000 words of laws. how to limit gov Quantify limited government ..,)
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To: markomalley

Must have been a typo, they meant a state of mystery, not mystery state......


39 posted on 10/11/2012 10:12:33 AM PDT by Quickgun (Second Amendment. The only one you can put your hands on.)
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To: markomalley

Update:

We’ve Gotten To The Bottom Of The Mysterious Jobless Claims Report!

Henry Blodget

After this morning’s surprisingly positive jobless claims number was released, three things happened:

Lots of people felt better about the economy
Democrats cheered because they thought the number would help Obama
Republicans seized on confusing reports that the numbers had “excluded claims from one large state” (probably California) and blasted the number as wrong and misleading.

Since then, the argument has raged on, and there have been a variety of different reports and interpretations.

Well, we’re glad to say that we’ve finally gotten to the bottom of what happened.

We spoke to a source at the Labor Department. According to this source, who is an analyst at the Department, here’s what happened:

ALL STATES WERE INCLUDED in this week’s jobless claims. Assertions that “a large state” was excluded from the report are patently false.

HOWEVER...

It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state—California—were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week. This happens occasionally, our source says. When a state’s jobless claims bureau is short-staffed, sometimes the state does not process all of the claims that came in during the week in time to get them to the DOL. The source believes that this is what happened this week.

The California claims that were not processed in time to get into this week’s jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week’s or the following week’s. In other words, those reports might be modestly higher than expected.

The source believes that the number of California claims that were not processed totalled about 15,000-25,000. Thus, if one were to “normalize” the overall not-seasonally-adjusted jobless claims number, it would increase by about 15,000-25,000.

This week’s “normalized” jobless claims number, therefore, would be about 355,000-365,000, not the 339,000 that was reported. This compares to the 370,000 consensus expectation.

In other words, had all of California’s jobless claims been processed in time to make the jobless-claims release, this jobless number would still have been better than economists were expecting—but not as much better as it appeared.

Again, the as-yet-unprocessed claims will appear in future reports. So next week’s number may well be higher than expected.

So, who’s right about today’s jobless claims number?

Everyone’s right!

Jobless claims were better than expected, even after adjusting for an unusual anomaly
There was an unusual anomaly that made this week’s jobless claims look better than they would otherwise have been.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/what-happened-with-jobless-claims-2012-10#ixzz290luZSmK


40 posted on 10/11/2012 10:15:09 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: markomalley

Oh, please, Joe, bring it up tonight in the debates. Please, please...


41 posted on 10/11/2012 10:15:13 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: TigerClaws

Kalipornia is in such a hole that I can believe that seasonal employment became seasonal no-employment. Their answer is like France’s 75% income tax. Totally backward.


42 posted on 10/11/2012 10:15:21 AM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: markomalley

1- Collect taxes for stimulus
2- $$$
3- Economic recovery


43 posted on 10/11/2012 10:16:04 AM PDT by a fool in paradise (Obama likes to claim credit for getting Osama. Why hasn't he tried Khalid Sheikh Mohammed yet?)
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To: TigerClaws

The most likely state is Florida, New York, California, Texas in that order.

Claims dropped by 8 percent. FL and NY have 8 percent of the US pop.


44 posted on 10/11/2012 10:16:58 AM PDT by staytrue
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To: markomalley

mmmMMMMMMmmmmmm.......
Kelley Evans........


45 posted on 10/11/2012 10:19:17 AM PDT by moehoward
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To: clamper1797

Oh, yeah, it’s one of Obama’s 7 new states. Others are Confusion, Despair, and Affairs.


46 posted on 10/11/2012 10:22:08 AM PDT by cyn
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To: Billthedrill
Oh, please, Joe, bring it up tonight in the debates. Please, please...

EXACTLY!
Someone should get this to Ryan or Rush quick.
(And hope that Biden doesn't hear about it)
47 posted on 10/11/2012 10:23:38 AM PDT by RandallFlagg ("Liberalism is about as progressive as CANCER" -Alfonzo Rachel)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

Lots of companies with fed contracts were told to not send out lay off notices til after the elections. It that tampering?


48 posted on 10/11/2012 10:24:19 AM PDT by Chickensoup (STOP The Great O-ppression)
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To: markomalley
Jerry, thanks for your help; I owe you one.

Barack

49 posted on 10/11/2012 10:24:42 AM PDT by JPG (Make it happen)
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To: Wyatt's Torch
this week’s jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week’s or the following week’s

....or sometime after the election.

50 posted on 10/11/2012 10:25:31 AM PDT by RGSpincich
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