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It Looks Like The Huge Drop In Jobless Claims Was All Due To One Mystery State
Business Insider ^ | 10/11/12 | Sam Ro

Posted on 10/11/2012 9:26:49 AM PDT by markomalley

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To: Wyatt's Torch

IMHO the only thing that matters in all that is, is the ‘actual’ number remain over 8%


51 posted on 10/11/2012 10:26:13 AM PDT by moehoward
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To: nutmeg
So... bottom line: Can anyone predict what the November unemployment rate will be? (I believe that number will come out a few days before the election)

By Nov. there will be a labor shortage reported by the BLS.

52 posted on 10/11/2012 10:26:26 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: nutmeg
Can anyone predict what the November unemployment rate will be?

Depends on how many Unemployment recipients expire. This is the time of year they will expire OR they will desperately jump to a temp/part time job knowing that ALL emergency federal unemployment ends at the beginning of Jan 2013.

I would guess 7.5% or lower

53 posted on 10/11/2012 10:32:58 AM PDT by tsowellfan
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To: Chickensoup

Well yeah but not in regards to this number. The Obama administration said they would take care of the WARN Act violation penalties. Unconscionable.


54 posted on 10/11/2012 10:36:07 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: nutmeg

That number will be released Friday November 2nd. I’m going to guess that it goes up to 8% because more people “think” that the economy is improving and will therefore start to look for jobs and not find them but will now be counted as unemployed. That and the September +873K will be revised downward. Just a guess...


55 posted on 10/11/2012 10:38:27 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: Wyatt's Torch

If the BLS hadn’t got caught, they could have dropped another state next week and another the following week — to get the number below the psychological 300,000 mark — the final report before the election.


56 posted on 10/11/2012 10:41:00 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: markomalley

I have to look for the link but I read an article this morning about companies laying off full time employees and hiring additional part timers.

Firing 7 full time employees and hiring 10 part timers to make up the difference is a net gain of 3 new jobs.


57 posted on 10/11/2012 10:41:08 AM PDT by Rebelbase (The most transparent administration ever is clear as mud.)
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To: nutmeg

Can anyone predict the rate in December? It will be out after the election?


58 posted on 10/11/2012 10:41:36 AM PDT by Rock N Jones
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To: Rock N Jones
Can anyone predict the rate in December? It will be out after the election?

I have posted this in other threads recently:

59 posted on 10/11/2012 10:46:20 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: RandallFlagg
EXACTLY!
Someone should get this to Ryan or Rush quick.

Don't worry, Rush is reading FR while on air . You can tell by the order of topics and his verbatim reading of the posts.

60 posted on 10/11/2012 10:50:04 AM PDT by heylady (“Sometimes I wish I could be a Democrat and then I remember I have a soul.”( Deb))
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To: markomalley

Is Jack Welch tweeting Today...maybe something like: “Waiting for the apologies you Jackashes?”


61 posted on 10/11/2012 10:50:16 AM PDT by Fitzy_888 ("ownership society")
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To: TigerClaws

Sensible guess. Big enough to affect national statistics, in enough trouble long enough for enough long-term unemployed to fall off the rolls entirely, or enough have become unemployed that they’re just running out of people to lose jobs. Depending on how you squint at the numbers, the reduction in the newly-jobless rate could be a very bad omen.


62 posted on 10/11/2012 10:50:45 AM PDT by ctdonath2 ($1 meals: http://abuckaplate.blogspot.com)
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To: Rock N Jones

Something to keep in mind from Jim Pethokoukis: the unemployment rate would be over 10% is the labor force participation rate is now what it was when Obama took office.

Tweet: 10.7%: Unemployment rate if labor force participation rate was the same as when Obama took office


63 posted on 10/11/2012 10:55:05 AM PDT by Wyatt's Torch (I can explain it to you. I can't understand it for you.)
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To: St_Thomas_Aquinas

how many electoral votes does CA have?


64 posted on 10/11/2012 10:57:36 AM PDT by TurboZamboni (Looting the future to bribe the present)
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To: Democrat_media

The only thing government does right is war, and sometimes they fail at that.


65 posted on 10/11/2012 11:01:43 AM PDT by wastedyears (The First Law of Heavy Metal: Not all metal is satanic.)
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To: Solson

> If companies can get in trouble for faking their books, why can’t the government?

Because the corrupt democrat government owns us and the laws they won’t enforce.

Our worthless Republican majority in the house is AWOL as usual. The game is rigged against us.


66 posted on 10/11/2012 11:03:26 AM PDT by soycd
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To: markomalley

They come across as either imcompetent and or dishonest no matter.

Wait...


67 posted on 10/11/2012 11:09:49 AM PDT by Leep (Forward! to serfdom)
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To: SeekAndFind
They mention a mystery state but what state it is remains a mystery...

It is the State of Confusion.
Located in Washington, DC, 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Making it State number 58!

68 posted on 10/11/2012 11:14:53 AM PDT by CitizenM (Obama - The architect of the decline of the U.S.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Just imagine it’s your least favorite state, that’s what I did. Darn you Connecticut! And the silent “c” you rode in on!


69 posted on 10/11/2012 11:15:29 AM PDT by Boogieman
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To: markomalley

Quite simple...why do We the People need to pay our Federal buerocrat employees to fraudulently accumulate and disseminate corrupted data...?

Why doesn’t Boehner yank their funding until the agency functions normally? Or just shutter it completely?!!

what the heck..if it can’t generate data useful to anybody but the WhiteHouse and the executive office...We the People certainly don’t need it.!!


70 posted on 10/11/2012 11:17:42 AM PDT by mo (If you understand, no explanation is needed. If you don't understand, no explanation is possible.)
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To: Boogieman
"Just imagine it’s your least favorite state, that’s what I did. Darn you Connecticut! And the silent “c” you rode in on!"

Wait ... what? Connecticut has a silent "c"? I've been pronouncing it wrong all of these years? It should be pronounced ..

KONECTI-UT?

71 posted on 10/11/2012 11:21:04 AM PDT by BlueLancer (You cannot conquer a free man. The most you can do is kill him. (R. Heinlein - "If This Goes On"))
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To: Billthedrill

Ryan is a numbers wonk, he needs to hammer hammer hammer the bogus UE and jobs reports. This type of outright manipulation of numbers drives me to brink of madness.

Unfortunately, the sheople just heard 7.8% UE and now hear ‘largest drop in claims in 4 years’ and assume that the puppet Obama is kicking ass in terms of ‘economy repair’. GRRRRR


72 posted on 10/11/2012 11:31:51 AM PDT by Abiotic (The ship of democracy, which has weathered all storms, may sink through the mutiny of those on board)
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To: markomalley

“False, but accurate”!!


73 posted on 10/11/2012 11:38:39 AM PDT by DustyMoment (Congress - another name for white collar criminals!!)
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To: anoldafvet; All

” FOX News just said it was California.”

What a surprise this is......


74 posted on 10/11/2012 11:45:35 AM PDT by stephenjohnbanker (God, family, country, mom, apple pie, the girl next door and a Ford F250 to pull my boat.)
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To: markomalley

Corruption.


75 posted on 10/11/2012 12:13:55 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: markomalley

Not only did the number NOT reflect California’s stats but the seasonal adjustment moved the number by roughly 56,000 jobs. Yeah, they use the same formula but what good is that if the formula is flawed? I’d love to hear an explanation of why such an adjustment is necessary and what it means for this particular season.


76 posted on 10/11/2012 12:17:09 PM PDT by NonValueAdded ("Why not eliminate the middle man and have whoever feeds Obama his lines debate Romney directly?")
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To: markomalley

Note too that next week’s reporting on this week’s numbers will involve the Columbus Day holiday. That will soften the impact of the add-back of California’s data since holiday weeks typically underreport (one less day to make and one less day to process claims).


77 posted on 10/11/2012 12:19:00 PM PDT by NonValueAdded ("Why not eliminate the middle man and have whoever feeds Obama his lines debate Romney directly?")
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To: markomalley
Reporting the U3 unemployed number as the “official” number is a lie to begin with. This was implemented around 1994, Clinton was President, and Pubbies controlled the House.

The more realistic number is the U6 number, which includes discouraged workers, and those working part-time who want full time work.

Pubbies should re-frame this issue by first pointing out that:

1. “real” unemployment has not improved it remained flat are around 14%.

2. Less people are working today than when Obama took office.

3. The reported change was based on an increase in part time employment, which is not an acceptable substitute for full-time employment.

4. This number reported is misleading, since it doesn't include all the new unemployment claims due to a large “blue” state's failure to process all their claims.

5. The new jobs added, was less than the new unemployed, so the real picture was not positive for the economy or the workforce.

6. The unemployment % improves when people die(ie. quit the workforce), hardly a real indicator of whether the economy has improved.

After Obama took office, the economy got a lot worse, and the policies have been such a drag that after almost 4 years,Obama's economy hasn't even managed to get back to the starting point, let alone improving it.

This is an explanation that most Americans will understand immediately, even if they are totally clueless with respect to economic theory and statistics.

78 posted on 10/11/2012 12:23:38 PM PDT by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: SeekAndFind

No more mystery. RUSH said on his show that the state was
CALIFORNIA


79 posted on 10/11/2012 12:31:06 PM PDT by Maryhere ("HE comes to rule the earth")
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To: Democrat_media
Umm, no FDR is not "my socialist FDR". In no way.

I was simply answering your question and, as it turns out, I would rather be speaking English right now than German or Japanese or Russian.

Other than that, no, government can't do much right.

80 posted on 10/11/2012 12:35:41 PM PDT by Former Proud Canadian (Obamanomics-We don't need your stinking tar sands oil, we'll just grow algae.)
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To: markomalley

Didn’t we just hear from that genius from the Bureau of Labor statistics that there are too many people involved, the system is too complex, and there are too many double checks, for these numbers to be “manipulated “?? Sounds like he should be looking for his next job also.


81 posted on 10/11/2012 12:38:51 PM PDT by cherokee1 (skip the names---just kick the buttz)
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To: markomalley

The State of Misinformation, formed by colonists fleeing truth, reason, morality, sanity and God.


82 posted on 10/11/2012 12:42:54 PM PDT by MeneMeneTekelUpharsin (Freedom is the freedom to discipline yourself so others don't have to do it for you.)
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To: markomalley

It looks like California has jumped on the “We’ll do whatever it takes to get the messiah reelected” bandwagon. Somebody needs to go to jail.


83 posted on 10/11/2012 12:51:05 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Sorry Algore. It was attitude, NOT altitude.)
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To: FlingWingFlyer

Might have something to do with Monday of this week being Columbus day and the state government folks being out. In fact, this may be across all the states, not just CA. One less workday to file for claims. Regardless, these numbers are not reliable anymore.


84 posted on 10/11/2012 12:56:52 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: gswilder

I agree. I don’t know why the buffoons in the “media” get all excited and make such a big deal about these phony numbers. They are nothing more than a DemocRAT campaign tool.


85 posted on 10/11/2012 1:01:35 PM PDT by FlingWingFlyer (Sorry Algore. It was attitude, NOT altitude.)
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To: Personal Responsibility

If the debate hadn’t been televised, we would have been “informed” by MSM that Obama had won the debate or at best it was a tie. Notice how whenever the people witness something for ourselves, it’s alway bad for Dems.


86 posted on 10/11/2012 2:02:05 PM PDT by Proudcongal
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To: markomalley

The numbers are fake but accurate.


87 posted on 10/11/2012 2:11:15 PM PDT by Rightly Biased (How do you say Arkanicide in Kenyan?)
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To: greeneyes

In 1994 the Democrats controlled both houses of Congress (57-43 in the Senate, 258-176-1 in the House)...Thomas Foley was Speaker of the House. In the 1994 election the Republicans won a majority in both houses, starting in Jan. 1995.


88 posted on 10/11/2012 3:02:02 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: Verginius Rufus

You are correct. I was thinking that 1992 was the midterm for some reason, but after your post and thinking about it, you are correct- Thanks for correcting that.

Anyway, My real point was that U6 should be the “official” unemployment number.


89 posted on 10/12/2012 12:07:02 AM PDT by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: Maryhere

No surprise here.


90 posted on 10/12/2012 12:14:35 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: TurboZamboni

California has 55 electoral votes.


91 posted on 10/12/2012 12:18:52 AM PDT by thecodont
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To: Telepathic Intruder

LMAO!!!


92 posted on 10/12/2012 12:41:24 AM PDT by XenaLee (The only good commie is a dead commie.)
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To: Personal Responsibility

Yeah....and the question is...what are we going to do about it? Just keep allowing the left to get away with this crap? We outnumber them. Why are we allowing this BS to go on and on and on? This isn’t the Soviet Union. Not yet. We need to take back our country and our media from these leftist commie aholes. One way or another. If we don’t, and if we just continue to sit back and complain while doing nothing....I guarantee you the end result will be millions of lives lost. OUR lives, in fact.


93 posted on 10/12/2012 12:47:46 AM PDT by XenaLee (The only good commie is a dead commie.)
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To: nutmeg
Can anyone predict what the November unemployment rate will be?

To do that, you have to know how many people are hitting the end of their 99 weeks...In typical Federal fashion, if you aren't getting a check, you aren't officially unemployed, needy, farming, etc.

94 posted on 10/13/2012 8:22:55 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing)
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