Skip to comments.Swing state polls echo national trend: Mitt Romney on the rise
Posted on 10/11/2012 12:26:17 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Washington - A slew of battleground-state polls out Thursday shows a presidential race that has tightened in several key states, echoing national polls that show a bounce for Republican Mitt Romney after his strong debate performance Oct. 3.
......All of these states went for Obama four years ago,and if Romney is to unseat the incumbent, he has to win most of them. So, he still has his work cut out for him. The debate Thursday night between Romneys running mate,Rep. Paul Ryan(R) of Wisconsin, and Vice President Joe Biden is a critical step along the way. Typically,vice presidential debates dont matter, but in this case, Congressman Ryan has an opportunity to keep his tickets momentum going. Mr. Bidens task is to halt that narrative of an incumbent administration on the ropes.
....The biggest prize among swing states is Florida,with 29 electoral votes. If Romney loses there, he almost certainly cannot win the election. But if Florida goes for Romney,he still most likely has to win Ohio, the nations reining presidential bellwether state....
The key to winning Ohio this cycle is early voting, says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y.
According to the poll,almost 1 in 5 Ohio voters has already cast a ballot, and among them, Obama is ahead 63 percent to 37 percent.
....The only caveat about Ohios role in the 2012 race is that it now has just 18 electoral votes, two fewer than it did four years ago. Depending on how the battle for swing states goes for each candidate, in the race to reach 270 electoral votes, that two point reduction could matter. Some political analysts are even talking about a possible rerun of 2000, when the winner of the popular vote (Democrat Al Gore) did not win in the Electoral College.
(Excerpt) Read more at csmonitor.com ...
The only way Romney can lose now is to be caught in bed with a dead Big Bird.
You know you're in deep bird poop when you have to pin your hopes on Joe Biden for a KO...............
LS, is this contrary to what you have been reporting? I know that early voting is down, but how does this stack up?
The Ds here in Montgomery had a giant vote drive the other night at the county building and expected THOUSANDS. They had 1400 and had three empty floors with vacant seats.
In short, I don't believe it at all.
Okay, I was just checking how this clown from Marist was getting his early voting numbers from...
I have no idea. And it’s interesting, we have the site for the absentee #s posted. Anyone can go and check. But these other people just throw this crap out. I don’t doubt if you include absentees AND early voting that it’s possibly 50/50-—which is a huge loss for Obama in OH. But not 2:1, cause they have to overcome serious numbers in the absentees.
1 in 5 Ohio voters have already voted.....20%.....that sounds real high.
Is Ohio already counting the votes? I didn’t think they would do so until after the polls closed. If this is true, then the author of the article has no clue how the ballots are going.
Marist is NBC’s pollster. Remember, their most recent Ohio poll was D+11, a massive oversample. This oversample will affect any number they have on early voting.
No, no one is “counting” votes, but what we are counting is absentee ballot/early ballot requests by party affiliation. I for one assume that no Ds vote for Romney and no Rs vote for Obama and a 50/50 split among Is (which is probably way low and could easily be close to 2:1 Romney).
I understand what you are doing...but the author of the article makes it sound like in early voting Obama is up. He can’t know that, they aren’t counting votes yet. But when did truth ever get in the way of a partisan article.