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Times/Bay News 9/Herald exclusive Florida poll: Romney 51, Obama 44 (mason-dixon poll)
times bay news ^

Posted on 10/11/2012 3:24:51 PM PDT by sunmars

Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance last week has dramatically altered the presidential race in Florida, with Mitt Romney opening up a decisive 7 percentage point lead.

Conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a “bad night” at the first debate.

The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate.

“There’s no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama,” said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research.

Across the board, from who is better suited to improve the economy, to who will protect Medicare, to looking out for the middle-class, to handling foreign policy, likely Florida voters now favor the former Massachusetts governor over the president.

“It’s a very big shift since the debate, and where the shifts are taking place are very, very interesting because they are the types of shifts you see in Florida when something starts to break one way or another,” said Coker, likening it to when Ronald Reagan shot past Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Take Tampa Bay, the battleground region that invariably mirrors statewide results. A month ago, Obama had a 4 percentage point lead in Tampa Bay. This week, Romney led by 8 percent, 52 to 44. In Central Florida, Romney now leads by 6 points.

(Excerpt) Read more at tampabay.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012polls
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Sweet, i so hope this true....maybe evidence why that other pollster has stopped polling Florida and said Obama can't win there in 2012.
1 posted on 10/11/2012 3:24:55 PM PDT by sunmars
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To: sunmars

I think that was SurveyUSA who said that on O’Reilly’s show..said that Romney is winning North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida..said they are pulling people out because there is no point in continuing to poll there


2 posted on 10/11/2012 3:25:53 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: SeekAndFind; LS; Perdogg; napscoordinator; God luvs America; nutmeg; SoFloFreeper; Ravi; ...

ping


3 posted on 10/11/2012 3:28:33 PM PDT by Perdogg (Vote like the US Constitution depends on it - it does!!)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

It was Suffolk. This poll supports his conclusion.


4 posted on 10/11/2012 3:28:33 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: KansasGirl

Thanks for correcting me..Suffolk, NOT SurveyUSA..my bad got them both confused


5 posted on 10/11/2012 3:30:50 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: sunmars

Romney over 50% in Florida.
Stick a fork in Obama. This thing is almost over....


6 posted on 10/11/2012 3:32:22 PM PDT by tcrlaf (Election 2012: THE RAPTURE OF THE DEMOCRATS)
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To: sunmars

Oh. My. God. I. Am. In. Heaven. Over. This.

I just did a cartwheel across my living room without knocking over any furniture.


7 posted on 10/11/2012 3:34:42 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: sunmars

Means we can say goodbye to Nelson as well...a GOP pick up in the Senate


8 posted on 10/11/2012 3:35:03 PM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: WashingtonSource

Be careful now...we need you Nov 6th!


9 posted on 10/11/2012 3:35:41 PM PDT by Michigander222
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Times is sooo in the tank for Obama..this will be in the FOOD section tomorrow..


10 posted on 10/11/2012 3:36:08 PM PDT by ken5050 (Barack Obama: An empty suit sitting in an empty chair...)
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To: sunmars

Excellent.

Keep praying and turn out the vote on our side.


11 posted on 10/11/2012 3:36:28 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: WashingtonSource
Oh. My. God. I. Am. In. Heaven. Over. This. I just did a cartwheel across my living room without knocking over any furniture.

I'm impressed. By the poll numbers AND your acrobatic skills!

This poll is so far apart, I don't see how this state was ever in play. Could the polls, which used to oversample Dems, now be conducted accurately for some reason?
12 posted on 10/11/2012 3:36:47 PM PDT by yorkiemom (Yorkie Moms 4 Ryan ; Ryan + Romney = Recovery)
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To: ken5050

The Times is a liberal paper and they are showing this poll..WOW it must be REALLY REALLY bad for Obama


13 posted on 10/11/2012 3:37:57 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: tcrlaf
. . " almost over " Well, actually, I still think there's time to impeach Obama over Libya before he leaves office on January 20 Delicious
14 posted on 10/11/2012 3:37:57 PM PDT by atc23 (The Confederacy was the single greatest conservative resistance to federal authority ever.u)
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To: tcrlaf

Obama’s disapproval = 54%!


15 posted on 10/11/2012 3:38:51 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: manc

Good news ping!


16 posted on 10/11/2012 3:39:40 PM PDT by KansasGirl ("If you have a business, you didn't build that. Somebody else made that happen."--B. Hussein Obama)
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To: WashingtonSource

There is a polling establishment out there who has a republican and a democrat pollsters...does anyone here know the name of the polling agency? I believe Rush has mentioned them before and said they are to be reliable.


17 posted on 10/11/2012 3:39:59 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Sarah Barracuda

That was another pollster from Suffolk University.


18 posted on 10/11/2012 3:40:34 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: Red Steel

So many different pollsters, making my head spin lol


19 posted on 10/11/2012 3:42:10 PM PDT by Sarah Barracuda
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To: Michigander222

When I was watching the first Romney-Obama debate, I was pacing back and forth in my housing, throwing my hands up, screaming, “I can’t believe how good this.”

“This is it. Obama lost the election tonight,” I yelled. And this was after only 30 minutes. I just go better and better.

After all we’ve endured the last four years, my joy is going to be unbounded when Obama is “buried” in a landslide that will break all records. I hope the Democrat Party is also utterly destroyed and discredited for generations to come.


20 posted on 10/11/2012 3:46:05 PM PDT by WashingtonSource
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To: ken5050

We can only hope that waste of air nelson loses his bid for 6 more years of doing nothing for Florida.


21 posted on 10/11/2012 3:51:25 PM PDT by driftdiver (I could eat it raw, but why do that when I have a fire.)
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To: sunmars
"Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance last week has dramatically altered the presidential race in Florida, with Mitt Romney opening up a decisive 7 percentage point lead."


22 posted on 10/11/2012 3:52:45 PM PDT by Windflier (To anger a conservative, tell him a lie. To anger a liberal, tell him the truth.)
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To: Sarah Barracuda

Yeah, polls all over the place. :-) Good though ...confirmation of what Suffolk U. was seeing in Florida. Buh bye Obama
LoL.


23 posted on 10/11/2012 3:52:48 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: RoseofTexas

Purple Strategies’ Purple Poll or the politico/gwu Battleground Poll.

I think I heard Rush once mention Ed Geas of the Battleground Poll...


24 posted on 10/11/2012 3:54:59 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat Party!)
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To: sunmars

Mason Dixon? They’re usually a good polling firm too.


25 posted on 10/11/2012 3:57:10 PM PDT by Darren McCarty (Holding my nose one more time to get rid of Eric Holder)
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To: RoseofTexas

Battleground


26 posted on 10/11/2012 3:58:46 PM PDT by Lady Heron
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To: ken5050

Saw Nelson today, talking about tonight’s debate to a crowd - he looked skeletal, like he is or has been seriously ill. There have been some folks questioning why he has been out of sight so much lately.


27 posted on 10/11/2012 4:04:42 PM PDT by MissMagnolia (Being powerful is like being a lady. If you have to tell people you are, you aren't. (M.Thatcher))
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To: sunmars

Romney has a two-point lead with Hispanics (46-44)? True, there is a rather large ex-Cuban community in Florida, but still, Obama took 57 percent in 2008. A 13 point drop doesn’t bode well for his campaign.


28 posted on 10/11/2012 4:12:19 PM PDT by JerseyanExile
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To: WashingtonSource

I know what you mean, but if I try a cartwheel, I’ll take out a wall. LOL


29 posted on 10/11/2012 4:14:00 PM PDT by Gator113 (I would have voted for NEWT, now it's Ryan and the other guy.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: WashingtonSource

I know what you mean, but if I try a cartwheel, I’ll take out a wall. LOL


30 posted on 10/11/2012 4:16:48 PM PDT by Gator113 (I would have voted for NEWT, now it's Ryan and the other guy.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: onyx

I can see Obama losing from my house....


31 posted on 10/11/2012 4:18:23 PM PDT by Gator113 (I would have voted for NEWT, now it's Ryan and the other guy.~Just livin' life, my way~)
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To: sunmars

Great news! I hope this election is a landslide. I won’t be able to survive an election night nail-biter.


32 posted on 10/11/2012 4:19:59 PM PDT by St_Thomas_Aquinas (Viva Christo Rey!)
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To: sunmars

Mason Dixon is the gold standard of state polls. They really know what they are doing, so I will take this as GREAT news.

My only real worry this cycle remains Ohio. My sense is Romney is probably down just a slight bit there, and I truly believe whoever wins Ohio, wins the election.

Come on Buckeyes. Help us throw the worst President in the history of our country out of the Oval Office!!!!!


33 posted on 10/11/2012 4:23:17 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: sunmars
Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight Romney now a 60/40 favorite in Florida after addition of Mason-Dixon poll. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Expand Reply Retweet Favorite
34 posted on 10/11/2012 4:24:14 PM PDT by cmsgop ( The left always accuses the right for the sins of the left. from FReeper Just Lori, RIP)
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To: Gator113

Hiya Gator113!!!

I am so praying you’re right!

God bless and keep you.

GO Paul Ryan!!!!

Lord, hear our prayers.

That evil Marxist and his regime must go.

Landslide defeat!


35 posted on 10/11/2012 4:25:49 PM PDT by onyx (FREE REPUBLIC IS HERE TO STAY! DONATE MONTHLY! IF YOU WANT ON SARAH PALIN''S PING LIST, LET ME KNOW)
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To: Perdogg

This is what makes me think the MI news that Zero has closed up shop may be correct. He has never led there by more than a couple. If his internals reflect the REALITY that I think Ohio is showing, then he indeed is trailing MI too.


36 posted on 10/11/2012 4:27:02 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: Sarah Barracuda

No, that was Suffolk Polling.


37 posted on 10/11/2012 4:27:45 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: ken5050
Means we can say goodbye to Nelson as well...a GOP pick up in the Senate.

I can't see FL going for Romney and not electing Mack. We need five seats to control the Senate (we lose Maine to an Independent). Nebraska, North Dakota and Virginia will be pickups. There are plenty of other races that may go for the GOP. I can even see Casey losing to Smith in PA. (Smith is within 2 pts right now).

38 posted on 10/11/2012 4:34:11 PM PDT by ConservativeInPA (The truth hurts)
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To: RoseofTexas

You are thinking of the Battleground Poll with Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas.


39 posted on 10/11/2012 4:34:21 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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CAN'T WE SNUGGLE ON THE SOFA?


40 posted on 10/11/2012 4:35:24 PM PDT by devolve (----- ------- -CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER_CHEESEBURGER- ----------------------------)
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To: comebacknewt
Sorry, I don't see any way Romney loses OH with the numbers we've been posting. Ds down 175,000 NET votes in absentees alone from 08?? Our walkers in D/I neighborhoods are saying they are getting almost 2:1 Romney answers to "Who will you vote for?" This is seconded by another precinct walker in Dayton. Now, this is just Dayton, but it's a pretty good barometer of where OH is.

Montgomery Co. actually GAINED GOP absentee votes when all the rest of OH lost (Ds lost far more). I think Romney is, and has always been, up 3-4 in OH.

41 posted on 10/11/2012 4:37:06 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: WashingtonSource

Cautious optimism from here on out!


42 posted on 10/11/2012 4:37:30 PM PDT by Michigander222
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To: LS

I know you do great work LS, and I enjoy conversing with you about the polls every election year.

You are definitely closer to the ground in Ohio, and have much better insight into what is going on there than I do, and I really respect your opinion. I pray you are correct.

Ohio is the one state that keeps haunting me. I can potentially see everything else falling into place and then Ohio narrowly going for the Kenyan.

Please make sure you keep sharing your good news, because my confidence there still needs some bucking up. ;)


43 posted on 10/11/2012 4:42:13 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Michigander222

Well said, bro, well said!


44 posted on 10/11/2012 4:43:42 PM PDT by Doctor 2Brains (If the government were Paris Hilton, it could not score a free drink in a bar full of lonely sailors)
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To: sunmars

WOW even after the fake unemployment rate and the fake unemployment numbers put out by the Obama thugs,maybe voters are smarter than I thought.


45 posted on 10/11/2012 4:45:46 PM PDT by mandaladon (PalinGenesis)
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To: LS

Yes that’s it! Do u happen to know their polls numbers for R n O?


46 posted on 10/11/2012 4:48:39 PM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: comebacknewt
This MI news is really interesting. Last poll had Zero up 3, but that's within MOE and R could actually be up. But if what we see in OH among absentees and what I'm hearing from the chairwoman is right, the Is are going huge for Romney. Now we see that FL is a 7-point Romney lead? That Jews are breaking 47-40 for Romney? I don't believe that, but I do believe Zero is way down among Jews.

That said, to get to my prediction of 320 EVs, Romney is going to have to really squeeze NV and WI. Right now, Ds have a big margin in Clark County, though a significant amount don't vote.

47 posted on 10/11/2012 4:51:45 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: WashingtonSource
"... when Obama is “buried” in a landslide that will break all records...

Too many large states (Illinois, California, New York) will be in Obama's column, along with usual liberal states, to make it a blowout. But a reverse of 2008 (53-46) would be sweet.

48 posted on 10/11/2012 4:53:05 PM PDT by CatOwner
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To: RoseofTexas

I don’t. All I know is the last poll they did had Romney up HUGE among middle class, like 14 points or so.


49 posted on 10/11/2012 4:53:31 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: sunmars

Seems to me we saw barely any polls after the last debate, and even the ones we saw were gamed.

You just wait to see what happens if Joe does well tonight. They’ll have some poll results by they time they start the printing presses tomorrow morning.

If Ryan wins, they’ll find a reason to wait to do more polls.


50 posted on 10/11/2012 5:02:54 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (Obama got Mitch-Slapped in that first debate. 70% to 19% (Gallop)? That's going to leave a mark.)
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