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Nate Silver: Romney now a 60/40 favorite in Florida after addition of Mason-Dixon poll.
New York Times ^ | October 12, 2012 | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/11/2012 9:03:20 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin

Florida now in Romney column per Nate Silver (60.1% chance of winning) -- as is Colorado.

Romney is surging hard.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; 2012swingstates; fl2012; florida; obama; romney
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Democrats are panicking. The sweet smell of a come from behind win would be so awesome.
1 posted on 10/11/2012 9:03:20 PM PDT by Arec Barrwin
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To: Arec Barrwin

Romney needs to be going after Pennsylvania and Ohio even harder.


2 posted on 10/11/2012 9:05:03 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Arec Barrwin

If Nate Silver were back peddling any faster, he would need a damned back up beeper....


3 posted on 10/11/2012 9:05:34 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("You Might Be a Liberal" (YMBAL) Coming out Sept 1 by C. Edmund Wright)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

When you’ve lost Nate Silver, you should pull out of Florida. It’s gone.


4 posted on 10/11/2012 9:06:46 PM PDT by Viennacon
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To: Arec Barrwin

Nate Silver is wrong about VA and OH. I predict Romney will pick up both as well carry FL. And he’ll carry CO which has gone with the winning candidate in every election since 2000. Its the new MO.


5 posted on 10/11/2012 9:11:40 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

and yet the clueless dolt Bob “F” Beckel said tonight on O’Reilly that the Suffolk Polling guy was an idiot for pulling out of Florida because Obama had no chance to win there.

One more good shellacking of the empty chair and real panic will set in.


6 posted on 10/11/2012 9:12:21 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: bigbob

The Democrats have offset the loss of the South with the megastates of NY, CA, IL and PA. Demographics ensure Democrats will win them outright for a generation. They are not swing states in presidential elections. No GOP presidential candidate visits them because they have zero chance of ever carrying them.


7 posted on 10/11/2012 9:16:20 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: GeronL

“Romney needs to be going after Pennsylvania and Ohio even harder.”

OK, so if he has Florida, then he only needs one more big mid west state, right?


8 posted on 10/11/2012 9:20:44 PM PDT by garjog (We do not want another four more years of the last four years.)
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To: garjog

You can’t just eat one


9 posted on 10/11/2012 9:21:40 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: Arec Barrwin

There was a poll today on Politico which had Obama only leading by 4 points in MAINE, and Romney leading by 4 points in the one congressional district that could give him one electoral vote from Maine.

Light blue states are going purple, and the VP debate tonight won’t change the momentum that Romney-Ryan have right now.


10 posted on 10/11/2012 9:23:16 PM PDT by plushaye (Election 2012 Prayer Force)
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To: garjog

The old adage holds true: no Republican has ever been elected President since the 19th Century without carrying OH. Its a true swing state.

You can be sure if Romney is up in FL, he’s ahead in OH. Obama will win PA next door - too much liberal deadwood in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh for a Republican to carry the Alabama rural counties in between - they don’t have the votes to take a GOP presidential candidate over the top there.


11 posted on 10/11/2012 9:25:21 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

You are correct. And CA, IL, Ny have the worst budget problems. CA has horrible jobs & housing situation with the other three well below national averages. But the 47% could’nt care less so long as they keep getting free money in the mail.


12 posted on 10/11/2012 9:26:43 PM PDT by entropy12 (Romney/Ryan 2012... Please send more campaign cash to them.)
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To: goldstategop
The Democrats have offset the loss of the South with the megastates of NY, CA, IL and PA.

Those are the states that are going to be hit the hardest when the RATs cause the big SHTF die off.

13 posted on 10/11/2012 9:27:02 PM PDT by fella ("As it was before Noah, so shall it be again,)
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To: goldstategop

If Mitt Romney has Ohio, he probably has Iowa, Wisconsin and maybe even Minnesota.


14 posted on 10/11/2012 9:27:48 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think IA and WI are winnable - but MN is just too deep a Blue State for a GOP presidential candidate to win there. MI is going to go to Obama because Detroit votes early and often. And the auto industry workers are grateful to the One for saving their jobs.


15 posted on 10/11/2012 9:32:46 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Uggh, good lord. I bet the Democrats were hearing those same kinds of comments about North Carolina, Virginia and Indiana before they actually tried for them in 2008.


16 posted on 10/11/2012 9:50:03 PM PDT by MitchellC (President Evil: Redistribution)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Who is Nate Silver ?


17 posted on 10/11/2012 10:03:30 PM PDT by libh8er
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To: Arec Barrwin

Libs are going to hate this. They idolize Nate Silver.


18 posted on 10/11/2012 10:26:37 PM PDT by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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To: libh8er

Nate Silver is a guy who is getting run over by a train called voter dynamics.


19 posted on 10/11/2012 10:27:45 PM PDT by Wally_Kalbacken
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To: libh8er
Sabermetrician turned electoral statistician.

Used to blog for the Daily Kos.

20 posted on 10/11/2012 10:40:06 PM PDT by OddLane (If Lionel Hutz and Guy Smiley had a lovechild together, his name would be "Mitt Romney." -KAJ)
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To: Wally_Kalbacken

Wish I’d bought Romney to win Florida on intrude back when it was nearly nil.


21 posted on 10/11/2012 10:43:33 PM PDT by publana (Beware the olive branch extended by a Dem for it disguises a clenched fist.)
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To: MitchellC

Doubtful. The right has a lock on pessimism.


22 posted on 10/11/2012 10:51:41 PM PDT by UltraV (I use the term Leftist not liberal, because a true liberal would not support government censorship.)
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To: goldstategop
The Democrats have offset the loss of the South with the megastates of NY, CA, IL and PA. Demographics ensure Democrats will win them outright for a generation. They are not swing states in presidential elections. No GOP presidential candidate visits them because they have zero chance of ever carrying them.

I think GOP presidential candidates need to visit states like that for at least one solid stop to show the faithful and independents that the candidate is willing to step into the lion's den and show voters that they are not forgotten or considered a hopeless cause.

When the gutless McCain wouldn't even let Palin make stops in Michigan because that state was supposedly lost, it told me that he had no fight in him at all and the race had become a mere formality before the coronation of TOTUS.

23 posted on 10/11/2012 11:23:28 PM PDT by BradyLS (DO NOT FEED THE BEARS!)
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To: goldstategop

Well Romney has been to California a few times not as many as Obama but he has been here.


24 posted on 10/11/2012 11:37:59 PM PDT by funfan
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To: BradyLS

The weird thing was that while the McCain campaign had completely pulled out of Michigan, they were sending Palin to do rallies in places like Orange County, California, only a couple of weeks before the election. Talk about not making sense.


25 posted on 10/11/2012 11:41:10 PM PDT by MitchellC (President Evil: Redistribution)
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To: funfan

Doesn’t matter. If he visited Orange County he will carry it but Los Angeles and San Francisco overwhelm the rural parts of the state. And they will again this year.


26 posted on 10/11/2012 11:54:58 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

Well he has been in Northern California as well.


27 posted on 10/12/2012 12:51:18 AM PDT by funfan
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To: Arec Barrwin

This is the time Romney and Ryan need our prayers and good SS protection. If it looks like Obama is going down big, don’t be surprised of anything that happens. Just be Safe Mitt and Paul.


28 posted on 10/12/2012 1:02:07 AM PDT by crazydad (-` sd)
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To: goldstategop

Detroit has lost 25% yes 25% of its population since 2008 there is not as many to over come as in the past.


29 posted on 10/12/2012 2:28:35 AM PDT by Freeze923
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To: Arec Barrwin

Florida is looking good. Virginia is firming up as well.

It is all going to come down to Ohio. Whoever wins there, wins the election.


30 posted on 10/12/2012 4:45:12 AM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

What a douche he is. I STRONGLY believe OH is fine, and every day seems to bring more evidence.Right now I think it’s about a 3-4 point margin, but possibly higher, as walkers are telling me their indies are going almost 2:1 for Romney.


31 posted on 10/12/2012 4:47:06 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: goldstategop

Yeah, but many of these, including NY, are losing pop and thus electors.


32 posted on 10/12/2012 4:48:55 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: goldstategop

I think you are right about PA, although the big purge of 100,000 mostly from Philly, will make it more interesting. A shift of just 1-2% indies and PA falls.


33 posted on 10/12/2012 4:51:53 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: goldstategop

Remember there has been an exodus of jobs and D voters from OH and MI. In OH the voter purge took out net 375,000 Ds, and absentees show them down in absentees alon by. Whopping NET 175,000 over 08. I am sure something similar is happening in Detroit.


34 posted on 10/12/2012 4:58:35 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
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To: comebacknewt

I’m in Ohio (dark blue Cleveland).

In 2008, there were Obama signs and stickers everywhere. There are barely any this year, but many Romney signs. And I get beeped and a thumbs up on my own Romney car sticker almost every day on my drive home.

Yesterday, 3 co—workers, all former obama voters (who voted based on demographics by their own admission) were talking about how bad Obama dropped the ball over Libya. All 3 are voting for Romney.

Amazing.


35 posted on 10/12/2012 5:54:29 AM PDT by mom4melody
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To: mom4melody

If the news gets any worse for Obama, we can expect a major commando attack on Libyan based terrorists a week to ten days prior to the vote. I suspect that planning is already under way for this late October “surprise”.


36 posted on 10/12/2012 6:22:07 AM PDT by littleharbour
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To: LS

True, and that population is moving to places like Florida and turning the state purple.


37 posted on 10/12/2012 6:30:08 AM PDT by Dan Nunn (Support the NRA!)
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To: LS

I believe PA. has the most seniors.I’d be hitting him about Obamacare.A vote for Obama may end your life prematurely!


38 posted on 10/12/2012 6:36:07 AM PDT by Dr. Ursus
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To: goldstategop

I think the “enthusiasm gap” might come into play. I think a lot of blacks just won’t bother to vote this year. At least I hope so.


39 posted on 10/12/2012 6:41:21 AM PDT by ilovesarah2012
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To: Arec Barrwin

You win CO, you win NV on nearly identical dynamics — exurban female swing voters, plus Mormons.


40 posted on 10/12/2012 7:10:47 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA OR NV = 281EV)
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To: C. Edmund Wright
"If Nate Silver were back peddling any faster, he would need a damned back up beeper...."

What I can't understand, is that this supposed whiz kid can't understand, is aggregating dated polls is useless, and wrong. It makes him wrong, it makes the RCP wrong...

Whereas the Bickers-Berry Univ. of Colorado model simply ignores polls, uses a meta econ mode instead, and gets 8 straight.

41 posted on 10/12/2012 7:24:02 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA OR NV = 281EV)
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To: BradyLS
"I think GOP presidential candidates need to visit states like that for at least one solid stop to show the faithful and independents that the candidate is willing to step into the lion's den and show voters that they are not forgotten or considered a hopeless cause."

Grand Rapids. No brainer.

42 posted on 10/12/2012 7:32:23 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (2008 + IN, NE1, NC, FL, VA, OH, CO, IA OR NV = 281EV)
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To: Arec Barrwin

Until the first Obama debate, there were essentially no yard signs that I’ve seen in Boulder County. Since the debate, Romney signs have sprouted everywhere, but no Obama signs have been put up. Even more interesting, lots of down-ticket signs have sprouted as well, including a large number of signs for Democrats. Many of the Democrat yards look like a forest of signs. But not a single one of these Democrat forests sprout an Obama sign! These folks are either ashamed that they’re going to vote for Obama or they’re going to sit out that race. Maybe a few will even vote for Romney.


43 posted on 10/12/2012 8:12:13 AM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Arec Barrwin; kingattax

More good news for FL.


44 posted on 10/12/2012 9:47:44 AM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: left that other site

even the alligators arent voting for obozo


45 posted on 10/12/2012 10:43:21 AM PDT by kingattax (99 % of liberals give the rest a bad name)
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To: catnipman

I have seen the same thing here in NH. The loyal dems in the neighborhood have the signs up for the liberal US congressional and state reps, but no Obama signs.

I think they MAY secretly vote for Romney or not at all.


46 posted on 10/12/2012 10:52:38 AM PDT by woodbutcher1963
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To: kingattax

And those alligators are smarter than liberals.

Never underestimate the power of the reptilian brain.


47 posted on 10/12/2012 11:27:53 AM PDT by left that other site (Worry is the Darkroom that Develops Negatives.)
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To: StAnDeliver
What I can't understand, is that this supposed whiz kid can't understand, is aggregating dated polls is useless, and wrong. It makes him wrong, it makes the RCP wrong...

You are onto something bigger than just Nate Silver and polling - these pointy headed Ivy League liberals live in a faculty lounge classroom world, where they control all the inputs - and the results - and they tend to think the real world works that way. Of course, it does not. It is this blindness about life in general that leads to the sheer sophistry of buying into the RCP polls, which as you say, are all built on phony building blocks.

48 posted on 10/12/2012 12:08:58 PM PDT by C. Edmund Wright ("You Might Be a Liberal" (YMBAL) Coming out Sept 1 by C. Edmund Wright)
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To: goldstategop

Nate Silver is a former dKOS poster.

He is vastly under estimating ROmney’s changes, which he now pegs at 38%!!!

That’s right, Romney has been ahead in national polls for a week now, yet he is at 38!! in Nate Silver’s probability meter. It’s a laughable joke. Even RCP is better than that.
They flipped to Romney lead.

Romney has leads in CO, NV, VA, NH as well as FL. This is enough for a win, even without OH, but he will win OH as well.


49 posted on 10/12/2012 6:29:55 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
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To: woodbutcher1963

“I have seen the same thing here in NH. The loyal dems in the neighborhood have the signs up for the liberal US congressional and state reps, but no Obama signs.”

My suspicion is that this is probably happening across many parts of the country, maybe even most parts excepting some of the cores of the die-hard Communist cities.

An enterprising journalist (if there was even ONE such critter left in the entire country) could get a very interesting story out of this phenomena, exploring such issues as to what it means, whether it’s ever happened in the past, why people are refusing to put up Obama signs, how many put up signs four years ago but won’t now, and what it means with respect to how they may or may not be changing their vote from four years ago, and what it might mean for Obama’s re-election chances.

(I realize, of course, the futility of expecting that there might be at least one enterprising journalist left in our country.)


50 posted on 10/12/2012 7:17:13 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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